Features
Musing on the presidential stakes
by Kumar David
It is absurd to attempt to predict the outcome of the presidential elections due in about three years, but it is possible to make a broad survey of current trends. There are four runners eyeing the starting post, in alphabetical order of initials they are AKD (the JVP-NPPS Anura Kumara Dissanayake), GR (Gotabhaya the government, SLPP and Rajapaksa-clan candidate), PCR (Patali Champika Ranawaka) leading the 43-Brigade and SP (Sajith Premadasa leader of the parliamentary opposition and SJB centre-forward).
Only two, AKD and PCR have in any sense announced their candidature in that their outfits have published manifestos and they have been all but anointed. GR is the obvious choice from the SLPP-Rajapaksa stables but he has not actually stated his interest, if anything he has sometimes demurred. Because of this ambiguity I will refer to this option as GR-etc. His backers have flaunted no manifesto, no doubt cringing in shame from the Milk & Honey, Vistas of Splendour & Glories of Nirvana fiasco of 2019. I suppose the Sajith-SJB people are scratching their heads wondering what to write since all the punch lines and useable bogus promises have been usurped by others. There could a few nonentities (Pissu Sira and a few Independents) who may throw their hats into the ring and donate their deposits to the Treasury. I will make scant mention of this menagerie now or forever I hope in this column – newsprint costs money.
I have heard it said that there is a small possibility that SP may withdraw making a deal with PCR, but this is most unlikely. Formally, SP has the inside track on the Opposition-SJB lane while lanky PCR has hitched up his national-cloth ready to sprint on an outside lane. It is now or never for PCR if he is ever going to make a dash for the presidency. But “For what reason should I withdraw”, SP who polled 44 lakhs last time will ask? Nor can I see PCR, who considers himself a shining star eclipsing lack-lustre SP, accepting the vice-captaincy. I see both running and splitting the vote but perhaps wisely agreeing to recommend each other for the second preference ballot. My guess is that if neither of them gets 50% on first count, one of them and GR-etc will be first and second and therefore the main contenders in the second preference count. Hence tactical preferential voting will be disadvantageous to GR-etc, not to SP or PCR. If this sounds a little foggy at the moment. I will spell it out as the campaign progresses; there’s lots of time.
Frankly what game PCR will play is still an unresolved question. He mated with the Rajapaksa government, coupled with the Yahapalana government, divorced it and eloped with Sajith and it is said that he is now flirting with Ranil. A discharge of SJB elite bourgeois politicos is said to be lining up behind him to be best-men, of course with a portfolio thrown in. PCR has of recent become the cynosure of elitist and educated middle class eyes and Sajith has been written off as a dumbo. This is recent, only after polite society woke up to behold the surfacing of the PCR option. What will PCR do if down the line a desperate government side offers him the ticket; anything is possible. Going on his proclivity to jump hurdles I think he will take it. A PCR-led SLPP-(Raja)Paksa ticket will be formidable in this land of gullible voters.
The dismal prospects facing the government has created splits in the GR-etc group. A section of the SLPP, the 14 MP SLFP, Wimal’s NFF (MPs) and the one man each Gamanpila, CP, LSSP and Vasudeva outfits are plotting a separate internal platform with their own economic plan and challenging Basil’s pro-US moves (in particular the plan to sell CEB plant to New Fortress Energy). It is rumoured that as of now the conspiracy can count on 30 lawmakers who want to shut the stable door after herds of horses have fled!
But these are early days and the chips finally may fall in all sorts of ways; the take away at this time is that the government is in deep trouble and the GR-etc candidacy is dissolving. The fuel, electric power-cut, fiscal deficit and foreign debt crises have reached existential extremis. Gotabhaya can reach 70% of electricity from renewable sources not by 2030 but by 2023, he may even aspire for 100%! Elementary my dear Watson; simply grind industry to a halt, introduce 6-hour daily power cuts and bring the economy to a standstill. You don’t need to do anything more; the demand for electricity will plummet, the economy will collapse and existing hydro reservoirs and baby renewable plants will suffice to meet the demand. Brilliant! If Mohamed can’t scale the mountain, bring the mountain down to Mohamed, to quote an old saying. No lights, no food, no money to go to the cinema (Covid-19 permitting), and no foreign currency for condoms! What are people to do; make babies?
Having said all this I am not yet willing to predict that the GR-etc option will be utterly decimated in an electoral landslide where its 69 lakhs will figuratively collapse to the likes of 6.9 lakhs. There is time more to make such predictions. The government side with some 130MPs, control of the state apparatus (= an outright licence to indulge in violence and electoral fraud), tens of billions in ill-gotten loot, and Sinhala chauvinism and saffron brigades at its elbow, will put up a fight. Its poll may be moderate. Still the regime’s electoral prospects are bleak; what holds it back from annulling elections and announcing a dictatorship is surely fear of a god-almighty spontaneous uprising – no thanks to a somnolent opposition!
At this moment it is how the Sajith campaign will be launched and unfold that is intriguing. My conjecture is that SP will not withdraw and accept the vice-captaincy under PCR. What is odd is that the SP-SJB team has not presented a manifesto nor launched a significant campaign yet. Writing a manifesto so late in the day is difficult. Everything that can be said, lies and truths, have already been appropriated by some other outfit; so, what’s left for laggards? Are Sajith’s cohorts paralysed?
Let me move on to AKD but first I quote an angry and frustrated message I received two days ago.
“Forget about Ukraine. Sri Lanka is in turmoil. Seven-and-a-half-hour power cut tomorrow. No fuel, severe shortage of gas and as a result transport is at a standstill and vegetables from the cultivating areas cannot be brought to Colombo. Parliamentarians continue to travel in high powered vehicles with security escorts. It is feared that public transport will come to a standstill in a few days, including trains. Kumar, why not write something on these matters. However, it will be pouring water on a duck’s back; those in power don’t care two hoots and the opposition is fast asleep”.
Usually these are the circumstances in which radical-left parties thrive if they are awake. If the anger of this quote is widespread, then the JVP-NPP will poll respectably. AKD is still the dark horse in this derby, but he may poll a fifth of the vote but may fail to get within the first two which is where the preferential vote count matters. This assumes that in a four-cornered race (forget the minnows) no candidate will sail past 50% on the first count. As of now this is a reasonable statement unless SR and PCR unite as captain and vice-captain of one team making the election a three-cornered race.
To enhance its image the JVP-NPP team will have to greatly brush up its credibility. No number of apologies and promises will have a sizable impact. There will have to be restructuring; a visible and credible transformation of the internal power and decision-making structure. The JVP’s core decision making councils will have to be transformed to incorporate a different and more credible type of political species. People whose presence will give credibility to the mass-voter that the bad old days are gone and forever buried will have to be incorporated. Otherwise AKD will again be an also-ran. I have suggested three names, Lal Wijenayake, Prof Vijaya Kumar and Dr Michael Fernando who are all in the NPP Council. But it’s the JVP not the NPP that makes crucial decisions. Structural changes are a sine qua non if AKD’s poll is to increase beyond 10-15%. Time is running out; a last-minute patch will carry no conviction. Unfortunately, there is little evidence that the JVP is capable of this type of bold and creative lateral thinking.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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