Morton’s fork

Tuesday 25th May, 2021

What has beset Sri Lanka, courtesy of the current government, is a textbook example of Morton’s fork, or a dilemma in which both choices available by way of solutions are equally undesirable. Today, the countrywide lockdowns (euphemistically called travel restrictions) aimed at curbing the spread of the pandemic are scheduled to be eased briefly. Medical experts are calling for tougher measures; they want the government to couple lockdowns with a quarantine curfew for at least two weeks to contain the highly transmissible virus. The government was in two minds for weeks; to close or not to close was the question that troubled it. Thankfully, it seems to have made up its mind at last; lockdowns are to continue, we are told.

Lockdowns are said to be a sure-fire way of curbing the transmission of the runaway virus, but they are extremely costly; they make all economies, big or small, scream. State Minister of Money and Capital Market and State Enterprise Reforms Ajith Nivard Cabraal has revealed that the previous lockdown (from 14 to 17 May) cost the country a whopping Rs. 60 billion, which is higher than the amount of funds allocated for the first phase of the proposed Ruwanpura expressway.

But if the country is kept open or lockdowns are imposed haphazardly to minimise economic losses, the pandemic will continue to carry off many more people; there will be a staggering human cost. If the country is kept under lockdowns for a long time, economic recovery will be extremely difficult. In other words, if the government chooses to fight shy of shutting down the country, factories will remain alive, but workers will be dead, so to speak; if the country is closed for weeks on end, workers will be alive but factories will be dead!

A stitch in April would have saved nine in May. The country is troubled by Morton’s fork because the government let political expediency take precedence over the pandemic control measures. People were given the freedom of the wild ass in April; they flouted the health guidelines with impunity. In ancient Rome, Patricians kept Plebeians happy with the help of bread and circuses. The present-day Sri Lankan rulers let the public enjoy keun and avurudu festivals. Their cretinous move to facilitate public entertainment amidst a health crisis and thereby increase the ruling coalition’s approval ratings boomeranged. We are where we are, with the pandemic fatality rate rising rapidly, and the government running around like a headless chicken.

People must be told in no uncertain terms that unless they fully cooperate with the health authorities to control the pandemic, there will be protracted lockdowns; they will lose their livelihoods, and the wolf will be at the door sooner than expected. Public awareness must also be raised about the real dangers of Covid-19, which has given rise to the black fungus disease, which has a 50% mortality rate and is wreaking havoc in India. Eyes and jawbones of the victims of this disease (mucormycosis) have to be surgically removed if they are to have a fighting chance to make a complete recovery. India is also reportedly battling against what is known as the white fungus disease, considered deadlier than mucormycosis. Moreover, a team of Singaporean scientists has found that ‘the people who recover from Covid-19, regardless of the severity of their disease, may be at risk of developing blood clots due to an overactive immune system’. If the public is sufficiently educated on the dangers of the pandemic, they will not take it lightly.

Lockdowns may be half the battle in containing the elusive virus, but much more needs to be done. There is a pressing need to accelerate the national vaccination drive to bring about herd immunity as soon as possible. Returns on investment in vaccination will be tremendous, as evident from the experience of Israel. Covid-19 clusters could emerge even during lockdowns, as a medical consultant pointed out in a brief interview with this newspaper on Monday (24); those engaged in the provision of essential services continue to move about and gather, creating an environment conducive to the transmission of the virus. Clusters could form around such workplaces, police stations, military installations, etc., the good doctor has pointed out, suggesting that quality masks capable of providing full protection be made available urgently as a remedial measure. This, we believe, is a sensible proposal.

The government has apparently awaken to the fact that only science––not politics or superstitious rituals––can help contain the pandemic, and its grandees who seem to consider themselves more knowledgeable than doctors are not equal to the task of saving the public. It should therefore have brainstorming sessions with real experts, take their views on board, ramp up its vaccination efforts and strive to find a way around Morton’s fork.