Features
Modi and BJP: set for electoral hat trick at home; caught in dirty tricks abroad
by Rajan Philips
After a few setbacks at home and abroad, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has led the BJP to an impressive set of three victories out of four state elections in India’s heartland. If the grand old Congress Party was planning to do to the upstart Modi regime what the gallant Aussies did to Team India at the Narendra Modi Stadium in Gujarat, the outcome has turned out to be more like – well, the exit of England in World Cup cricket. The BJP won clear majorities in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh; all three northern states won by the Congress in the 2018 state elections.
The Congress managed to win a majority in Telangana in the south, displacing Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), the regional party that has been in power ever since Telangana was carved out of Andhra Pradesh in 2014. There was a fifth election in Mizoram, the northeastern frontier state, where the ruling Mizo National Front has won again.
The elections in the five states that were spread over the month of November, have been called “the semi-finals” before the final next year – India’s gargantuan parliamentary elections set for April-May 2024 to elect the country’s 18th Lok Sabha. Modi detractors were hoping for a good showing by the opposition that could have been the launching pad for a concerted challenge to Modi and the BJP in the general election next year. Instead, it is Modi who has come out on top and now seems well set to achieve his coveted hat trick triumph.
Mixed Year
Prime Minister Modi has had a mixed year in 2023. At times he soared internationally, but of late his overseas gloss has begun to wear off. In June, the Prime Minister made a state visit to the US, where he thrilled Hindutva Indian Americans who flocked to see him in their thousands; was feasted to a state banquet at the White House; and addressed the US Congress for a second time – joining an awkwardly elite club of Winston Churchill, Nelson Mandela and Benjamin Netanyahu.
In August, he attended the BRICS summit in South Africa and played a balancing role between members and aspirants divided over the Russo-Ukraine conflict – that is now reaching a wintry stalemate to Putin’s delight and his detractor’s horror. The climax of India’s global projections was the hosting of the G20 Summit in September.
October and November have not been good for the global image of Modi and that of India that Modi seems determined to cast in Hindutva light. Already in September, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had made the sensational allegation in the Canadian parliament, accusing “agents of the Indian government” of involvement in the June killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh Canadian citizen and a Khalistani activist. India rejected the accusation vigorously and resorted to diplomatic harassment. Trudeau was ridiculed and reviled by pro-Modi Indian media and pundits. Now the tables have turned.
On November 30, after weeks of media reporting, the US Department of Justice officially released a criminal indictment that had been filed in the US courts alleging a plot involving Indian government agents targeting Sikh activists around the world, with multiple assassinations planned in Canada and the US. All the information is now out in the public, but what is most concerning is that this information had been shared by US (and Canadian) officials with their Indian counterparts, including at the summit level between President Biden, Prime Minister Trudeau and Prime Minister Modi, before the Canadian Prime Minister went public with his government’s allegations.
Yet the Indian government officially rejected Canada’s concerns and created a diplomatic kerfuffle, while full well knowing that the dirty tricks of some of its agents were known to the Americans and the rest of the intelligence sharing five-eye countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, UK and US). The US indictment and Canada’s allegations are not the only instance where the Modi government has been accused of intelligence operations and overreach. Other instances include the conviction of eight former Indian naval officers on espionage charges in Qatar, and operations targeting Khalistani activists in Pakistan, Nepal, Italy, the United Kingdom and Thailand.
In the UK, just before the June killing in Canada, there were suspicions about the death of another Sikh activist, Avtar Singh Khanda, a 35-year-old who died in a hospital after a short illness this summer. The foiled assassination attempt that is the subject of the US indictment targeted the US Sikh activist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. The US indictment will now rekindle the suspicions over Mr. Khanda’s hospital death in Birmingham.
Different Species
To India’s Modi nation, the intelligence overreaches abroad are not a source of embarrassment but a badge of honour, that India under Modi is coming of age in undertaking Black Ops that were once the forte of the likes of the CIA, KGB and Mossad. A sign of Modi flexing India’s muscle globally. The Indian opposition is nationally too weak to challenge this mindset even though it goes against every grain of what were the world views of Mahatma Gandhi and Jawaharlal Nehru and which informed India’s foreign policy and defined its role in world affairs.
There were twists and turns under Indira Gandhi, but even she never wavered from maintaining India’s solidarity with the countries of the Global South. Tactically, she may have been the shrewd Bonaparte – as Hector Abhayavardhana, who knew Feroze and Indira Ghandi reasonably well, used to conceptualize – playing imperialism against the masses, and the masses against imperialism. Narendra Modi is a different species.
The all-aligned philosophy of Modi and his Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar has come a cropper with their controversial position on Israel’s non-stop retaliation against Hamas and the devastation of Gaza. India was isolated at the UN, Modi kept away from a recent virtual BRICS gathering, and India’s pitch to be the voice of the Global South at COP28 in Dubai fizzled out because, as the Politico headlined, climate was crowded out at COP28 by the renewed Israel-Gaza war. But none of this made any dent in Modi’s electoral juggernaut in India. The intelligence cock ups and foreign policy setbacks that would have extracted a hefty political price in pre-Modi India or in any other country that practises elections, were hardly an issue at any of the State Assembly elections.
The opposition, which was solely the Congress in the elections, was too timid to raise them as issues. Going solo to take on the BJP was the Congress Party’s singular blunder. The background to this goes back to the formation of INDIA (Indian National Developmental, Inclusive Alliance) – the multi-party alliance that has been in the making since June 2023, for the purpose of contesting the 2024 Lok Sabha election on a common platform and with a united slate of candidates. Early goings on seemed good, and the project received a terrific boost from the unexpected victory of the Congress Party in the Karnataka State Assembly elections in May.
North-South Divide
The state elections in November were expected to be used as a pilot opportunity for the INDIA alliance parties to field common slates of candidates in the five different states. Then the Congress got back to its old ways, spurned calls for seat sharing by other parties, and went on its own in each state except for handing a handful of seats to the Communist Party (CPM) in Telangana. The Congress apparently thought that it would do well in the three Hindi belt states that it had won in 2018, and new victories would give the Party a better bargaining position for seat sharing in next year’s national election. Now that its cynical scheme has backfired, it would be an uphill task for the Congress Party to mend fences and regain the trust of the other parties in the alliance.
The election results clearly show the north-south divide in India’s electoral politics. The BJP seems unassailable in the Hindi-belt states in the north, but seems unable to make a similar impact in the southern states. Besides the South, regional parties are also powerful in the eastern states. Much is being made about Congress supporters by Party’s victory in Telangana, victories in the South are hardly adequate to be competitive nationally. Among the opposition parties, the Congress controls state governments in just three states – Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Telangana. Non-Congress INDIA alliance parties are in power in eight states, and two eastern states are governed by parties that are not allied with either BJP or the new INDIA alliance.
With so much disaggregation, it would be impossible for the opposition parties to pose an effective challenge to Modi and the BJP in the next Lok Sabha election. The BJP victories in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan were influenced by a host of factors – the Modi effect, the Central Government’s welfare programs, a deep war chest, strong grassroot level organization, and attractiveness to a new cross-section of voters that includes the youth, women, the more educated, and the more marginalized caste groups. The encompassing canvas of course is the ideology and experience of Hindutva, which has tremendous purchase in the interior Hindi states but little resonance in the coastal and southern states.
All in all, Narendra Modi seems set for a hat trick next year, notwithstanding allegations of dirty tricks abroad. The state elections in November could have been an effective launching pad for a united opposition to mount a reasonably significant challenge to Modi’s bid for a third term. By its decision to go solo in the state elections, the Congress Party would seem to have irreparably botched what a few months ago looked set to grow into a very palpable challenge to Prime Minister Modi and his government.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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