Likely changes in US foreign policy

‘America is ready’, US President-elect Joe Biden is quoted as saying and supporters of democracy the world over are likely to breathe a sigh of relief on hearing the positive message. For them this would be welcome news considering the bumpy, hazardous road traversed by the Trump administration in the foreign policy sphere in particular.

Looking back, there is no doubt that during the Trump years the world was rendered a comparatively dangerous place to live in. Hopefully, there would be a greater measure of moderation and stability in the conceptualization and practise of US foreign policy from now on.

One thing that democratic opinion everywhere is likely to hope for is a ‘readiness’ on the part of a future Biden administration to make core democratic values the cornerstones of its domestic and foreign policies. On the other hand, the Trump administration’s ‘America First’ nationalistic slogan along with its preference for a relative degree of international isolation tended to make insecurity a defining feature of the world.

From the viewpoint of the democratic world, not only should the US be pro-actively engaged with the world but it must also base itself on those core democratic principles that have come to be seen as synonymous with US domestic and foreign policy. A Biden administration would succeed or fail to the degree to which these traditional trajectories are brought back into US policy-making in the foreign and domestic planes.

The ‘Black Lives Matter’ movement in the US brought to the surface the decades-long sense of injustice which was rankling within the consciousness of the country’s ethnic minorities. It required the unprecedented discriminatory policy thrusts and practices of the Trump administration to facilitate the explosive emergence of the pent-up frustrations of these depressed communities.

The killing of George Floyd months ago was only the trigger. It will now be the obligation of the Biden administration to address the outstanding grievances of the US’ minorities and to set them right. Since the ‘minority vote’ constitutes a considerable power base of the incoming administration, the latter would need to consider it duty-bound to act positively on this front and quickly.

As should be expected, domestic policy concerns would come to be reflected in foreign policy. Removing US domestic policy from its white supremacist fixation would have the effect of giving the country’s foreign policy a notably pluralist and internationalist orientation. Consequently, US foreign policy would have an openness that would compel the US to promote democratic development world wide. The facilitation of democratic development would make it incumbent on the Biden administration to promote ethnic equality and empowerment internationally.

It is only to be expected that given the above policy parameters the Biden administration would be compelled to prize multilateralism above unilateralism. The latter defined the Trump years but the former policy choice would give the Biden administration the opportunity of restoring the US’ hitherto weak ties with the international community and its principle institutions, such as the UN specialized agencies. The WHO is a case in point. A logical correlative of this policy thrust would be to also implement with enthusiasm the US’ hitherto neglected international commitments, including the implementation of the Paris Climate Change Agreement.

Those lined up to take-up some senior positions in the Biden administration pre-figure the basic directions in which US foreign policy is likely to evolve in the future. For example, long standing Biden aide, Antony Blinken is tipped to be the next Foreign Secretary. Linda Thomas-Greenfield is seen as the next Ambassador to the UN. Along with others who are expected to take up key positions in the administration, they constitute ‘alumni of the Barrack Obama White House’. The latter characterization provides the clue to the direction in which foreign and domestic policy would develop.

Considering that multilateralism would likely come to its own under Biden, the latter would consider it incumbent on him to shore-up the US’ battered ties with NATO and the EU. There will be a steady mending of fences with these allies but one cannot foresee an early end to the US’ friction with China on trade and other outstanding issues.

‘Getting tough with China’ would continue to be a basic parameter of US policy towards China, considering that containing the ‘rise of China’ will be a key concern of the world’s sole super power. On this score, the Biden administration will be at one with the outgoing Trump administration since the consensus among dominant domestic political quarters is likely to be that the US’ pre-eminent position in the world should remain. This policy preoccupation of the US would not enable the latter to be at peace with China in those areas of the world where their interests are clashing at the moment.

However, the US’ relations with China are likely to be further frayed in the event of the incoming US rulers insisting on China being sensitive to human rights issues within its borders and in Hong King, for instance. Taiwan too would continue to be a bone of contention. It is tempting to see a Jimmy Carter kind of preoccupation with the promotion of human rights globally on the part of the Biden administration as well.

There is unlikely to be major discord between the US and Russia but the latter would continue to be viewed by the US as an ‘opponent’.Alleged Russian interference in US presidential polls would continue to be a concern for the US and sanctions imposed by the latter on Russia would continue to trigger tensions in bilateral ties.

There is likely to be a defusing of tensions in the Middle East with Biden seeking to restore the nuclear accord with Iran which was discarded by the Trump administration. However, the US seeking relative peace with Iran ought to be seen as a constructive move by the world, considering that it would have the effect of de-escalating inter-state tensions in the Middle East. This is on account of the primacy of Iran in the region.

There is unlikely to be any major US policy shifts in South Asia with the Biden administration seeking to bolster its ties with India. There is a continuing mutual interest between the US and India to contain China and this power tussle will continue to take centre stage in the region. International political developments in South Asia will be moulded in the main by this preoccupation between the US and India.