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Lies, damned lies and statistics

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Cartoon courtesy Chegg.com

Statistics are undoubtedly valuable for revealing patterns, relationships, and comparisons, within a given situation between groups and variables, and they operate within a realm of probabilities at various levels of significance. However, it’s important to note that statistical analysis can only expose the symptoms or manifestations of a phenomenon; it cannot delve into the underlying root causes.

The phrase “Lies, damned lies, and statistics” is often used to highlight the potential for manipulation or misrepresentation of data through statistics. It doesn’t necessarily mean that statistics are worse than outright lies; rather, it underscores how statistics can be presented in a way that is intentionally deceptive or misleading.

The context in which this statement is commonly attributed is in discussions about the use of statistics in persuasive or political discourse. While the origin of the phrase is somewhat unclear, it gained popularity through the writings and speeches of various individuals, including Mark Twain and Benjamin Disraeli. Its purpose is to caution against blindly accepting statistical data without critical evaluation, as statistics can be shaped or presented in a manner that serves a particular agenda or biases.

Reality, of course, is often not as clear as numbers lead us to believe. Winston Churchill once reportedly said that “the only statistics you can trust are the ones you have falsified yourself”.

If they were living today, Churchill and Disraeli would probably say as much about Greece’s membership in the Euro zone. People are upset because the leadership in Athens submitted forged statistics with the goal of joining Europe’s monetary union. But their European colleagues are to blame, too. They did not review the application strictly. Greek Euro membership was politically welcome.

The example of the Euro shows all too clearly that statistics are not just rhetorical instruments. When used correctly, they are a means of control. They help us gain insights. Without sound statistics, structural imbalances in the global economy cannot be understood, much less remedied. Such imbalances are among the causes of the current global financial crisis. It is still far too early to tell whether the leaders of the G20, the 20 largest national economies, are up to the task. Nor do we know whether the EU will manage its own crisis well. It is also rooted in imbalances. Global macroeconomics is not the only field where policymakers need sound data, of course.

Without reliable statistics, it is impossible to run national education or health systems efficiently. Even public transport management for a midsized town depends on correct figures. Private sector leaders are number crunchers, too. To understand market trends, they need macroeconomic data (inflation and growth rates, for instance) and microeconomic information. What is the purchasing power of a specific segment of consumers? Companies conduct scientific market research to avoid risks and grasp opportunities.

Basic statistics are part of the social infrastructure governments must provide. Censuses matter a lot. In order to extrapolate accurately from samples, one needs to know the exact size of the total population. Social-science students learn in their first semesters that a census should be held every ten years. That is especially important wherever state authorities do not keep other kinds of systematic records, of course.

Statistics are undoubtedly valuable for revealing patterns, relationships, and comparisons within a given situation between groups and variables, and they operate within a realm of probabilities at various levels of significance. However, it’s important to note that statistical analysis can only expose the symptoms or manifestations of a phenomenon; it cannot delve into the underlying root causes.

Nonetheless, many scholars across the globe prefer to conduct their research studies using quantitative methods, which often involve statistical analysis. There are several reasons for this preference. Firstly, quantitative research allows for relatively straightforward conclusions and robust findings. These findings are generally less subjective and reproducible, meaning that if different researchers employ the same dataset and methods, they are likely to arrive at similar results. This objectivity and reproducibility make it easier to defend research findings, a crucial aspect when aiming to publish in international indexed journals.

So, what’s the significance of publishing in these so-called international academic journals and achieving indexing? Until recent times, university staff might not have placed a strong emphasis on publishing their research in such journals. All our universities in Sri Lanka have been ranked

How do you know what you know?

The question, “How do you know what you know?”, is raised by Norman K. Denzin and Yvonna S. Lincoln to delve into the field of epistemology, which explores the science and art of acquiring knowledge. This inquiry highlights the methodology employed in the process of uncovering knowledge, ultimately aiming to persuade the audience regarding the credibility and validity of the research findings. Norman K. Denzin and Yvonna S. Lincoln are influential figures in the field of qualitative research methodology.

However, to truly uncover the root causes behind these statistical findings, researchers often need to complement quantitative research with qualitative research methods. Qualitative research involves asking “why” and “how” questions repeatedly and in-depth, probing as deeply as possible until a thorough understanding is reached, even if it means hitting a point where further insights seem elusive.

In summary, while statistics provide valuable insights and facilitate publication in international academic journals, they primarily deal with observable patterns and relationships. To unearth the underlying root causes, researchers often turn to qualitative research methods, which allow for a more comprehensive exploration of the “why” and “how” aspects of the phenomena under investigation.

University rankings

It’s quite astonishing to discover that, based on the Webometrics ranking system, all universities, with the exception of the University of Colombo, are positioned below 2000 in the rankings. (See table)

The process of knowledge discovery and research plays a crucial role in the context of university rankings. University rankings are often influenced by the quality and impact of the research conducted by universities. Here’s how they are connected:

Research Output: One of the key factors considered in university rankings is the volume and impact of research output. Universities that produce high-quality research, publish in reputable journals, and contribute to advancements in various fields, tend to rank higher.

Academic Reputation: The reputation of a university is closely tied to its research contributions. Universities with a strong track record of groundbreaking research tend to have a better academic reputation, which can positively affect their ranking.

Funding and Resources: Universities with robust research programmes often receive more funding and resources. These resources can be used to attract top faculty and researchers, further enhancing the institution’s research capabilities and overall standing in rankings.

International Collaboration: Collaboration with international researchers and institutions is common in the world of research. Such collaborations can boost a university’s global presence and, consequently, its ranking on the international stage.

Student Attraction: High-ranking universities are often more attractive to prospective students. Students seek institutions that offer cutting-edge research opportunities, which can lead to an increase in applications and enrollment.

Innovation and Impact: Research can lead to innovations that benefit society and the economy. Universities contributing to innovation and societal impact tend to be recognized in rankings for their contributions to the broader community.

Therefore, it is clear that research and knowledge discovery are intertwined with university rankings. The quality, quantity, and impact of a university’s research output significantly influence its position in global and national university rankings, making research a fundamental component of a university’s reputation and standing in the academic world.

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