Jumbos at a crossroads

Thursday 8th September, 2022

The UNP celebrated its 76th anniversary on Tuesday by holding a national convention reportedly after a lapse of nearly three decades. What made the grand celebration possible was a political windfall—its leader’s accidental ascent to power. The ailing UNP in disarray is all out to make the most of the situation and recover lost ground, and prepare itself for the next election. There is said to be ‘a tide in the affairs of men’, and the UNP is apparently ready to take it ‘at the flood’.

The incumbent government, which is the outcome of a political marriage of convenience between the SLPP and the UNP, is like a blind man carrying a cripple on his shoulders. The UNP may be able to regain some political traction thanks to political pennies from heaven, but whether it will be able to revitalise itself without radical party reforms and a new orientation is doubtful. Retaining or regaining power by manipulating numbers in Parliament is one thing, but obtaining a popular mandate is quite another. An election is a worrisome proposition for both the SLPP and the UNP.

It is only wishful thinking that the UNP will emerge strong enough to win a future election simply because it has secured the presidency. One may recall that a UPFA government with a two-thirds majority collapsed like a house of cards in 2015 despite being led by a popularly elected President—Mahinda Rajapaksa. The fact that the SLPP won the presidency again in 2019 did not help it ward off trouble on the political front; President Gotabaya Rajapaksa had to flee the country and resign. The SLFP had to coalesce with the SLPP to avert an electoral disaster in 2020 although it was led by a President elected by the people—Maithripala Sirisena. UNP leader D. B. Wijetunga was the President (elected by Parliament following the assassination of President Ranasinghe Premadasa) when the 1994 general election was held, but he could not prevent his party’s defeat.

President Ranil Wickremesinghe struck a conciliatory note at the UNP convention, on Tuesday, urging all political parties to join hands to help the country come out of the current crisis. He may be genuinely desirous of forming a joint administration, but the same cannot be said of the SLPP, which is determined to retain its hold on power. The Rajapaksas are all out to consolidate their position, and the return of ousted President Gotabaya Rajapaksa reflects their growing confidence. Their loyalists in the government group are demanding ministerial posts. Most of them were responsible for President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s failure, and if they are accommodated in the Cabinet again, President Wickremesinghe will have no need for enemies!

There is no love lost between the Rajapaksas and Wickremesinghe, and it was adversity that brought them together. Now that Aragalaya has fizzled out, to all intents and purposes, the SLPP and the UNP are apparently at daggers drawn again. The SLPP wants to strip President Wickremesinghe of his constitutional power to dissolve Parliament after the expiration of two and a half years of its term. It needs an election like a hole in the head at this juncture for obvious reasons, and fears that the President will leverage his power to sack the government in case of their differences coming to a head. It is planning to have the 22nd Amendment Bill changed to prevent the President from dissolving Parliament until it has completed four and a half years of its term, as was the case when the 19th Amendment was in force. It is ironic that the SLPP leaders who abolished that provision in the 19th Amendment to enhance presidential powers when Gotabaya was the President are seeking to restore it to safeguard their interests.

Rebel SLPP MP and former Minister Dr. Channa Jayasumana dropped a bombshell in Parliament on Tuesday; the SLPP dissident group’s support had been sought to appoint a new Prime Minister, he claimed. Without naming names, he said the rebel MPs had declined to comply. The current PM represents the MEP. Is the SLPP trying to secure the premiership so that it could undermine the President by using its parliamentary majority? A Prime Minister backed by a majority of MPs is always more powerful than the President.

Thus, whether the UNP’s grand plans will reach fruition or go pear-shaped depends on the team dynamics of the ruling coalition, and the methods that the Rajapaksa family will adopt to consolidate its hold on power.