Features
International politics increasingly Asia-centric
Right now, some of the most crucial questions in democratic politics are figuring most prominently in Asia in the political storms in Myanmar and Afghanistan. Although the Taliban is expected to attend an ongoing international forum in Moscow on Afghanistan, featuring Russia, China, India, Pakistan and several neighbouring states, the issue of how legitimate it would be for the Taliban to project itself as a legally-constituted government continues to be hotly debated internationally. A notable absentee at the talks would be the US, which has gone on record as saying that it is finding it ‘logistically difficult’ to be at the parley.
Simply put, the problem is whether the Taliban could represent Afghanistan at these talks since it did not come to power through the democratic process. Moreover, it has done nothing thus far to help in bringing into being an inclusive state in Afghanistan. For example, in brazen defiance of international democratic opinion, it is reportedly banning Afghan women from participating actively in public life. Afghan women are also being denied the opportunity of pursuing their educational other legitimate ambitions in full, it is said. Besides, some religious minorities in Afghanistan, such as the Hazaras, are reportedly being violently victimized by the Taliban.
Meanwhile, ASEAN has taken the bold step of calling on Myanmar to send a non-political representative to a regional summit of the grouping to be held this month. This is seen as a slap in the face for the Myanmarese junta that ousted a civilian administration and took power in February this year amid fierce civilian opposition. As is known, the military takeover has led to a civil war in the country, involving brutal repression of the resisting civilian sections by the military. The non-recognition of the junta by ASEAN amounts to the latter grouping endorsing democratic institutions and processes. It must be recollected that the Myanmarese military seized power in the face of incontrovertible evidence that the NLD, led by iconic Myanmarese democratic leader Aung San Suu Kyi, had won the country’s legislative elections.
Needless to say, the developments in Myanmar are in marked contrast to those in Afghanistan, where the major powers deliberating the latter’s future do not seem to be thinking and acting consensually. The US’s policy position on Afghanistan is of the utmost importance to the latter’s future but its absence in the ongoing multi-state parley seems to indicate that it is yet to work out its essential policy parameters on Afghanistan. A non-committal position by the US could send out the message that it is leaving Afghanistan to its devices. However, it had positively participated in the same forum a few months ago before the withdrawal of its troops from Afghanistan.
As mentioned in this column over the past few weeks, the indications are that the US is shifting its focus from South West Asia to the Asia-Pacific region which is the veritable economic powerhouse of the world. This accounted mainly for US Vice President Kamala Harris’s wide-ranging tour of the ASEAN region in the wake of the US fully withdrawing from Afghanistan a few months ago. Her visit seemed to be aimed at strengthening the US’s friendly links with South-East Asia, besides laying the groundwork for a strengthening of the US military presence in the region.
The US-led Quad and AUKUS formations are proof of the US aim to have a rocksteady military presence in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond. Among its chief aims is to have freedom of navigation in the South and East China Seas where there is a competitive military presence by China. The latter’s repeated incursions into Taiwanese air space are evidence of its resolve to protect its perceived interests in the region even at considerable cost.
However, economic facts speak for themselves. IMF studies indicate that while the advanced economies’ contribution to world output in April 2022 is expected to be 3.6 per cent from 5.1 per cent in April 2021, the corresponding figures for the ASEAN-5 are 6.1 per cent and 4.9 per cent respectively. Among the Emerging Market and Developing Economies, with the exception of India, ASEAN-5 does better in these readings than Russia and China. Accordingly, in terms of economic strength it is the ASEAN region that would offer better prospects for the US than other Asian regions. Small wonder that the US is strengthening its economic and military links with the ASEAN region and India. Once again, economics are driving politics. By the same logic, the US would readily give up Afghanistan and South West Asia since it does not stand to gain in economic terms from these regions, humanitarian catastrophes notwithstanding.
However, the close protection of economic interests necessitates the relentless building of military muscle. In this effort, the US is leaving no stone unturned. It has just enhanced Western nuclear power projection capabilities in the Asia-Pacific through the recent AUKUS pact. It is further underscoring its military capabilities through exercises such as MALABAR 21Phase 11, which involves the navies of Australia, India, Japan and its own. The message is sent mainly to China that it must think long and deep before engaging in actions that could be seen as military provocations.
To be sure, it is quite some time since inter-state politics took on global dimensions. It occurred a couple or so decades after World War 11, but the current Asia-centric international political tensions seem to be unprecedented. A ravenous scramble is on among the foremost military and economic powers over the Asia-Pacific region. Apparently, a crying need currently is inexhaustible patience in the conduct of international relations.