Increase in import expenditure outpaces rise in export earnings

Extracts of CBSL External Sector Performance – August 2021

Increased financial inflows bolstered Gross Official Reserves (GOR) during the month of August 2021, while merchandise exports exceeded US dollars 1.0 billion for the third consecutive month. However, the increase of import expenditure outpaced the increase of export earnings, resulting in an expansion of the trade deficit, compared to a year earlier. Tourist arrivals gathered some momentum in August 2021, recording a notable increase over the previous month, although the numbers remained low.

A moderation of workers’ remittances was observed in August 2021. Sri Lanka received the allocation of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as part of the general SDR allocation in 2021. Further, initial disbursements under the bilateral currency swap arrangement between the Central Bank of Sri Lanka and the Bangladesh Bank were received during August 2021. The average spot exchange rate in the interbank market remained broadly stable in August 2021, while pressures on the exchange rate were observed towards the end of the month, prompting the Central Bank to intervene in the foreign exchange market to stabilise the rupee.

Trade Balance and Terms of Trade

Trade Balance: The deficit in the trade account widened on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis to US dollars 586 million in August 2021, compared to the deficit of US dollars 342 million recorded in August 2020. The cumulative deficit in the trade account from January to August 2021 also widened to US dollars 5,509 million from US dollars 3,812 million in the corresponding period of 2020. The major contributory factors that contributed to the widening of the trade deficit are shown in Figure 1.

Terms of Trade: Terms of trade, i.e., the ratio of the price of exports to the price of imports, deteriorated by 19.2 per cent in August 2021, compared to August 2020, as the increase in import prices surpassed the increase in export prices.

Performance of Merchandise Exports1

Overall exports: Earnings from exports in August 2021 grew by 16.2 per cent over August 2020 to reach US dollars 1,100 million, reaching the highest level of exports recorded in a month of August. Earnings from exports were marginally higher at US dollars 1,104 million in July 2021. Cumulative export earnings increased by 22.6 per cent during January-August 2021, amounting to US dollars 7,903 million, compared to US dollars 6,445 million recorded in the corresponding period in 2020. However, the recent gap of around US dollars 345 million per month, on average, between the merchandise outflow and the financial inflow related to such exports has been a matter of concern.

Industrial exports: Earnings from the export of industrial goods increased by 17.5 per cent in August 2021, compared to August 2020. This increase was due to a broad-based increase in earnings from most of the industrial products led by textiles and garments; petroleum products; rubber products; food, beverages and tobacco; and machinery and mechanical appliances. Export of garments to all major markets increased. Earnings from the export of petroleum products increased with the increase in prices of aviation and bunker fuel and the increase in volumes of bunker fuel exports. Increase in earnings from tyres and gloves led to higher earnings from rubber products.