Implications of Asia’s economic resilience for Myanmar

With ASEAN stepping forward to help resolve the crisis in Myanmar, the likelihood is great of there being some relief in store for the long-suffering country. Being a member of ASEAN and considering the implications of such a status for the country’s continued economic well being in particular, Myanmar’s Generals would find it difficult to be unreceptive to ASEAN’s promptings with regard to resolving her conflict by peaceful, political means.

News reports said that ASEAN leaders had agreed to ‘a five point consensus’ on resolving the Myanmarese crisis. Among these points was a call to end the country’s violence immediately. ASEAN also voiced the need ‘to seek a peaceful solution in the interests of the people’ through a dialogue process involving all relevant parties to the conflict.

It is in the fitness of things that ASEAN has stepped in, thus, to help resolve the conflict because the grouping is best positioned to exert a measure of pressure on the Generals, in consideration of the bearing Myanmar’s ASEAN membership has on her economic prosperity. Besides, as a grouping, ASEAN embodies a considerable proportion of the world’s economic dynamism and has generally not courted any notable controversy in world affairs. ASEAN’s moral standing, that is, cannot be easily questioned. If ASEAN articulates a united voice on Myanmar consistently, the General’s are bound to take heed sooner or later.

ASEAN has done well to bring the Myanmarese people into principal focus in its initiative to end the conflict. The emerging solution would, indeed, count for nothing if it is not consistent with the people’s best interests. This standpoint calls for factoring in the restoration of the democratic process in Myanmar, considering that people’s empowerment is achieved mainly through a democratic system of government.

It stands to reason that the ousted Aung San Suu Kyi administration would need to be brought back to power, if democratic norms and principles are what are envisioned in a negotiated political solution to the conflict in Myanmar. This conclusion is inescapable in view of the fact that the democratic process was rudely interrupted when the Generals stormed to power on February 1st this year.

The above are matters for future deliberation but in case bringing the ousted administration back to power proves contentious, provision would need to be made to at least hold fresh polls under a neutral supervisory body. However, the bottom line is that if the best interests of the people are what are intended, the fundamental rights of the people would need to be restored in full.

Of note, though, is the fact that considerable tight rope walking among a number of interests awaits all those volunteering to help out in the Myanmar tangle. The Generals would not be willing to relinquish power without a fight to protect their vital interests. Myanmar has been a security-conscious country from the time of independence on account of a range of ethnic insurgencies in the country and this set the stage for the Generals being in the principal seats of power for decades. Thus, militarization is hard to shake off.

In the present juncture, the Generals would have the complete backing of China, which has considerable economic interests in Myanmar. Besides, China will be intent on taking all precautions to ensure that Myanmar does not come within India’s sphere of interest.

India, on the other hand, is bound to find herself in a policy quandary too with regard to her North-East neighbour. On the one hand, India is obliged to opt for a full restoration of the democratic process in Myanmar in view of her enduring commitment to democracy. On the other, India has considered it to be in her interests to work cooperatively with the Generals, since their assistance has been needed by her to manage a rash of separatist insurgencies in her North-Eastern states. This is on account of the fact that many of these insurgent groups have their bases within Myanmar.

However, India is also obliged to constantly look over her shoulder at China’s moves in Myanmar, considering that China’s influence would not prove easy to blunt on account of the enduring traditional ties between the countries. Moreover, India cannot afford to ‘look the other way’ for long in consideration of the exceptionally bloody nature of the conflict in Myanmar. More than 700 civilians have died in the brutal crackdown by the Generals thus far.

Thus, it could be seen that evolving a political solution in Myanmar would prove an uphill task for future peace makers. But bringing peace to Myanmar through a restoration of the rights of the people is an obligation cast on the international community that cannot be shrugged off.

One vital factor that would ensure an abiding interest on the part of ASEAN in Myanmar is the steady economic growth of the ASEAN region. The economic dynamism of the region has been ongoing despite the pandemic and it would be in the interests of the ASEAN countries to keep up the economic momentum. According to knowledgeable quarters, the growth of the Asian economy would be at least 6.5 per cent this year. East Asia too is expected to register the same growth rate in 2021. Meanwhile, economic and trade cooperation among Asian countries is seen as deepening. By February 2021, 186 intra-Asian trade agreements were in force, for example.

Accordingly, ASEAN would be jeopardising some of her most vital interests by allowing the Myanmarese crisis to perpetuate itself. As usual, economics drive politics and ASEAN would be sparing no pains to ensure that political and social stability comes into being in Myanmar. The latter’s internal crisis would not be permitted to drag down the collective well being of the region. Stable and vibrant economic connectivity in ASEAN will always be seen as a foremost necessity by the region.