Features
IMF at last! LG Elections on April 25 or when-never!
by Rajan Philips
In his relatively salad days, President JR Jayewardene was known to be a superb after-dinner speaker and ballroom dancer. He was not so swift in political dancing, and had to wait for the longest time to have his last dance. And what a dance it turned out to be. We do not know anything about President Wickremesinghe’s after-dinner toast-mastery or ballroom skills. Neither of them is in as much vogue now as they used to be in the old millennium. But when it comes to political dancing, Mr. Wickremesinghe is in a class of his own. His moves are unconventional, he plays his own drum, blows his own trumpet, and his partners do not last long. His dance moves as parliamentary president have been predictably unpredictable and more than occasionally bizarre. On the economy and the IMF, it hasn’t been much of a dance; rather, periodical monologues. On the local government (LG) elections, however, the President’s moves have been subjectively arrogant, but objectively pathetic.
The latest presidential monologue on the economy came last Tuesday (March 7), when President Wickremesinghe told parliament that at long last the IMF deal was ready to be finalized, likely before the end of the month. On the same day, the National Election Commission reportedly announced that it was “recommending April 25 as the most suitable date for the local government elections,” after its original scheduling of the elections for March 09 was scuttled by government machinations. The fount of all machinations is to be found at the apex of government power – the presidency, and in the person of President Wickremesinghe. Nowhere else.
Slimiest of Speeches
On February 23, the President made the slimiest of all speeches ever made in Sri Lanka’s parliament – on the controversial status of the LG elections. He falsified every known fact on the baseless premise that the Election Commission had not taken, or could not have taken, an official decision on a date for the LG elections. Therefore, he argued, it would be mischievous to suggest that the government was trying to postpone the elections when “there was no election in the first place for it to be postponed.” He called people names and asked parliament to appoint a select committee to present the true facts to the Supreme Court. If the speech was meant to show presidential cleverness, it only turned out to be politically pathetic.
The Supreme Court has had enough of having to put out government fires any time and every time. On Friday, March 3, the Court gave an interim order against government withholding funds needed for conducting LG elections. After the court ruling, opposition parties insisted that the Commission go ahead with elections as originally planned on March 9, or on March 19, the last date for the elections since the first gazette notification. But the EC seems to have become wiser and more cautious after its recent experience, and has chosen to recommend April 25 as the most suitable for new LG elections, which were last held in February 2018.
In his speech to parliament on the IMF deal, on March 7, the President made no mention of the Supreme Court or LG elections. He was all about the economy, recounting his government’s salvaging efforts and the importance of securing the IMF agreement. He appealed to the opposition parties to rise above political differences and work with him on the economy. The opposition parties would have none of it. They are all about LG elections and have nothing to say about the IMF or the economy. All of that can be looked after later, and only after the people are allowed to exercise their franchise in the local elections, which many pundits view as the local-government fraction of national sovereignty. If sovereignty is supposedly inalienable, it should also be whole and not fractionable. Even if sovereignty were fractionable, no one cares about the provincial fraction that is permanently left in abeyance. But we don’t need that distraction now.
The IMF and the LG have, or should have, no connection between them. No one has suggested that the IMF bailout is needed to fund the local elections. That said, or not said, insofar as Rs. 10 billion has become the upset figure for elections cost, it would have been a simple matter for the President to ask the IMF to add the small change of Rs 10 million as a democratic gift to the IMF’s pound of flesh of USD 2.9 billion. That way, the country would have found money for the election without having to print it, and the President could have justified election postponement until he had the additional change from the IMF.
He could have also reinforced his pitch for local democracy in Sri Lanka, by asking for the intercession of the three women – the Finance Minister of India Nirmala Sitharaman, the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Kristalina Georgieva – who were apparently “instrumental in helping Sri Lanka during its turbulent period,” and who were given honourable mention by the President in his statement to mark the International Women’s Day on March 8. Kudos to President Wickremesinghe, for regardless of everything else he has come a long way in recognizing women’s roles, if not rights, after being a Minister in a government that beat up and jailed Vivienne Gunawardena and her comrades who were marching in Kollupitiya to mark the March 8 International Women’s Day in that consequential year of 1983. Alas for Ranil Wickremesinghe, it is always a case of a single step forward and several stumbling steps backward. A dancing genre of its own. But this is no time for dancing.
Government Paralysis
The IMF deal and the LG elections have exposed the huge political chasm between the government and the opposition. Stuck in the middle to the point of paralysis is the government machinery. The state of the government machinery and the manner of its working have come into depressing reliefs in the transactions over LG elections and over decision making in the energy sector. The public spats between the Energy Minister and the PUCSL are a terrible spectacle. Not to mention the National Audit reports on widespread public sector corruption and news stories about the Irrigation Department, once the pride of Civil Engineering in Sri Lanka, becoming a den of thieves.
True to form, the President plays the economic card whenever he is politically cornered and blames the opposition for not co-operating with him. And he gets into political corners through no fault of anyone else, and solely through the machination games he has become addicted to playing over an admittedly long time in politics. The opposition, for its part, prefers to duke it out in the corners and stays clear of the largely vacant space for economic discussions.
The worrisome upshot is that in spite of the President’s numerous monologues, there is no broad political consensus on the general direction and the specific measures that are needed, and needed to be identified in detail, to deal with the unabating economic crisis. The opposition is leaving the void open without contributing anything significant to the economic discussion with any consistency. Sajith Premadasa is apparently beefing up his economic vocabulary to impress international lenders in future mendicant missions. Anura Kumara Dissanayake made a big splash before the business community, but has since crawled back into the local government shell. The vast void is being filled in tiny portions by currency board luddites and central bank haters, on the right, and IMF decriers and state-corporation worshippers, on the left. The uninitiated majority in the middle have nobody to listen to and nothing to follow.
The IMF deal is not the end of the story. It is not even the end of the beginning. At most it is less than a necessary initial treatment. The economic crisis is such a multivariant beast and there is no silver bullet solution to it. It will require a thousand cuts painfully administered over a painfully long time. President Wickremesinghe may have got the timespan right – 2048, for final deliverance, but he has offered nothing solid about what needs to be done between now and the expected date of delivery. Only puff and fluff. The opposition’s timespan stops at local government elections. They will not see, hear or speak of anything beyond. This, frankly, is irresponsible and even imbecilic.
False Enthusiasm
The SJB’s and the JVP’s enthusiasm for LG elections springs from the experience of the February 2018 LG elections that propelled the Rajapaksas to their second coming in their new vehicle, the SLPP, and eventually to the seats of power in over a span of two and a half years. But it is impossible for either the SJB or the JVP to emulate the SLPP’s feat in 2018. To do so, one of them will have to crushingly reduce the electoral wins of the other, which is not likely. At most they may get wins close to one another but that will not be as sweeping as the 2018 victory of the SLPP. Coming close to or even surpassing the SJB will be a huge achievement for the JVP, but it also runs the risk of suffering a setback if its tally falls below everyone’s expectations.
The general risk in all the hype over the LG elections is the real possibility of a low voter turnout. President Wickremesinghe will be immensely happy, but after all the hype and Rs. 10 billion, the country will be back to the same square one where it last was with Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Even if there were to be a good voter turnout and a decisive outcome, nothing will automatically change at the national level. Just as it was in 2018. The difference this time will be the questioning of the legitimacy of the Wickremesinghe presidency which will become vehement and strident after a decisive LG election.
The uncertainty and even the danger this time will be the way in which President Wickremesinghe chooses to respond if protests were to surface after a decisive election outcome. His predecessor, the ex-army man kept his men on a tight leash against the protesters. President Wickremesinghe has been sending quite the opposite signals from the time he became president. There was nothing illegitimate about Mr. Wickremesinghe succeeding Gotabaya Rajapaksa as President, but his legitimacy has been eroding steadily entirely due to his political machinations. It would be a grave and dangerous dance move if he were to partner the army to stave off political protests.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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