Hobson’s Choice

By Sanjeewa Jayaweera

The television images and media reports from India are both heart-wrenching and frightening. Visuals of people dying whilst gasping for oxygen, desperately ill patients unable to gain admission to hospitals, and dead bodies floating in rivers were previously associated with movies created by directors with great imagination. But, unfortunately, those visuals and reports are authentic and affirm what can happen due to poor decision making by the Government and the people.

There is no doubt that the Indian Government has to bear the bulk of the responsibility for this humanitarian crisis, resulting in a daily death toll of over 4,000 people. However, the consensus is that this figure is significantly understated.

The relaxation of rules around the holding of election gatherings, religious festivals and attending cricket matches where there were no social distancing nor mask-wearing is now rightly held to be the reasons for the second wave in India. Despite warnings about the risk of these types of superspreader events, the Government allowed them to occur. I recall in February 2021 watching with concern the TV broadcast of the India and England test matches from India, where spectators gathered in thousands without masks. In contrast, in Sri Lanka, we played behind closed doors against the same opposition.

The Madras High Court recently castigated the Indian Election Commission (EC) for having allowed election rallies and even said that there might be probable cause for charging the Election Commission members for murder. The Supreme Court refused an application by the EC to expunge the comments of the Madras High Court. The EC petitioned, saying their standing in the country had been severely eroded due to the tongue lashing they received! It seems the death of thousands due to their irresponsible actions should be subservient to their ego.

I believe the Madras High Court should have extended its comments to the Central Government as well. Just before the second wave started, the Indian Minister of Health Harsh Vardhan had declared that India was in the “endgame” of the epidemic. There were also misguided reports that India had even reached “herd immunity” despite a raging second/third wave in the USA, UK and Europe.

Many in India will blame the Indian Government for having donated and exported millions of AstraZeneca vaccines to foreign governments resulting in a shortage for the local population. There will be a debate whether donations of vaccines by India and China are for political reasons. The people of the recipient countries are no doubt grateful to the donors. However, the many thousands succumbing to the dreaded disease and their loved ones in India will resent that priority was not to Indian citizens. History will record that neither the United States of America nor the United Kingdom donated any dosages and deemed their priority to their citizens.

The situation in Sri Lanka, too, is dire, with a record number of covid-19 positive cases detected daily and the increasing death toll. During the second wave, both government politicians and a few health authorities were adamant that there was no community spread. Thankfully, no such comments this time around. The need of the hour is to acknowledge the gravity of the situation and take urgent action to minimize the death toll.

In Sri Lanka, the third wave is undoubtedly due to poor discipline amongst the public in adhering to recommended guidelines approaching and during the Sinhala and Hindu New Year. No one can argue against that.

In my view, the Government before the New Year should have prohibited the movement of people between provinces. Of course, it might have been difficult to enforce this rule strictly, but those caught breaking it should have been arrested, fined, and even sent to jail. The decision may not have been popular amongst the public, but governments are elected to make tough decisions in the people’s interest. The argument put forward that people were wary of Covid restrictions and needed some space to celebrate the new year is utter nonsense.

When a rule might impinge on an individual’s freedom but benefit the majority, commonsense dictates that such decisions should prevail, overriding the unhappiness of a few. In the USA and Europe, there has been too much emphasis on individual freedom. The propensity of our people to have a good time despite hard times is aptly described in the pithy “Nava Gilunath Ban Chun.” Had the Government decided to prevent people from travelling between provinces during the Sinhala and Tamil New Year, in all probability, the resulting loss of life and economic hardship that we are now facing could have been minimized.

There is no doubt that several key elements are essential in arriving at decisions taken as a team that results in a good outcome. This is applicable whether it is in running a country, a company or even a cricket team. A few prerequisites would be that the team should have intelligent members, have the necessary expertise, be selfless, honest, and walk the talk.

It has been proven all over the world that in managing this pandemic, the predominant decision making voice with regards to public health should be with the medical professionals. They are the experts in this area, and as such, they should prevail. Those who manage the economy should indeed have a say, especially in a country like ours. However, short term restrictions and lockdowns that curtail and minimize the spread of the disease is a far better tool than resorting to action after the horse has bolted. The economic repercussions are far more significant. The strategy of China, New Zealand and Australia has been “go hard and go early.” The success of that strategy is all too evident.

The reported episode of Minister Lokuge getting the lockdown of the district of Pliyandala lifted within hours speaks volumes as to what is wrong with the decision making process in our country. That he remains a member of the cabinet is a damning indictment of the lack of accountability for wrongful actions by those who wield authority. Others should also be held accountable for rescinding the order made by the Director-General of Health. The Director-General of Health would have tendered his resignation in some countries because of his authority being usurped by those not empowered to do so; it is futile to hold a position where one’s authority is usurped.

The other decision that made no sense whatsoever was to allow weddings of up to 150 guests. Given that these gatherings are primarily held in airconditioned function halls with poor ventilation, and attendees do not practice social distancing or mask-wearing, the commonsense approach was to ban all weddings immediately. As par for the course in our country, social media was agog with why the restriction was not announced. In the absence of verifiable information such as written confirmation from the hotel that hosted the particular wedding, we should confine such speculations to the dust bin. There is far too much fake news on social media.

The decision not to ban the immediate arrivals from India is also perplexing. It always seems that the Government is a few weeks behind making decisions that seem obvious to the public. These delays result in immense damage to the public and the economy.

Several Government decisions in the last few months, the reduction of duty on sugar when there were several months of stocks available, the overnight ban on the import of palm oil, the prohibition of chemical fertilizers, appear to have been made hastily without thinking through the consequences. One can only assume that the advice of the experts has not been sought or ignored. On the contrary, it all seems arbitrary.

The aggressive vaccination programs in the USA and UK are now being acknowledged as the most critical tool in managing the pandemic. In that regard, too, the various statements made by some Government Ministers seem to be inaccurate. In early March, a newspaper report stated that they had seen a letter from Serum Institute informing the Government of its inability to supply the AstraZeneca doses as per the original schedule. However, the following day the State Minister denied this report and said that we would receive the doses previously agreed. I believe the newspaper report was correct, although the onset of a ferocious second wave in India resulting in a ban on all vaccines exporting will forever cloud the issue. Whether the agreed-upon doses of Sputnik V will arrive in the country in quantities stated and on time is questionable. Every day we hear various figures announced by different Ministers. Given the demand for vaccines worldwide, and the single biggest manufacturer is not exporting vaccines for several months, it will be challenging.

The Sinopharm vaccine has finally been approved for emergency use in Sri Lanka. The vaccine was approved by the WHO the previous day. It seems the WHO has got its approval process to be in line with the urgent demand for vaccines. Within a week, it approved the Moderna and Sinopharm vaccines. The FDA approved the Moderna vaccine on the 18th of December 2020, and why it took the WHO four months to approve a vaccine after the FDA is puzzling.

As to how many deaths could have been prevented had these vaccines been approved earlier, it might need the appointment of another independent panel. It now seems almost criminal that 600,000 doses of Sinopharm remained in storage for over a month. I am not suggesting any shortcuts. However, time is of the essence in these desperate times.

For the people of Sri Lanka and its Government, it’s the “Hobson’s” choice. It seems that we need a nationwide lockdown to minimize the spread of the virus and reduce the number of fatalities. A panel in India has said that lockdowns need be in the range of six to eight weeks to be truly effective. The question is, can our struggling economy and the people with multiple challenges afford a lengthy lockdown, or will we encounter a daily death toll as predicted by a research agency in Washington?

In its editorial, Lancet, a prestigious medical journal, has stated, “India must now restructure its response while the crisis rages. The success of that effort will depend on the Government owning up to its mistakes, providing responsible leadership and transparency, and implementing a public health response that has science at its heart.”