Opinion
Has Sri Lanka become a poor country?
By Dr Laksiri Fernando
After artificially fixing the exchange rate in Sri Lanka for so many years (since 2001), whether the sudden floating of the rupee rate to dollar is a wise decision is altogether a different matter. However, because of this decision the dollar rate has jumped from Rs. 197/203 to 321/328 since this decision was taken on 9 March, just a month ago.
Has Sri Lanka become a ‘low income’ country because of this decision, and other circumstances, is the first question that this short article raises? In 2019, as a mouthpiece of the government, the Central Bank announced that “Sri Lanka graduated to the upper middle income country status as per the World Bank classification of countries published in July 2019.” On the other hand, the World Bank downgraded Sri Lanka to a ‘lower middle income’ country considering the currency crisis and inflation, in July 2020, much to the disappointment of the government and economic bureaucrats.
Inaccurate Classifications
It is the World Bank that classifies countries as ‘low income,’ ‘lower middle income,’ ‘upper middle income,’ and ‘high income’ countries whether those criteria are reasonable or accurate. The following are the measures that they use, simply said, based on the per capita GDP.
Group GDP Range(per capita)
Low Income 0 – 1036
Lower Middle Income 1036- 4,045
Upper Middle Income 4,045 – 12,535
High Income 12, 535 –
As I have raised this question previously, the income range for ‘low income’ or poor countries is arbitrary and excludes many countries who need international support from institutions and countries. The range could be up to $ 3,000 and not $ 1,036. Sri Lanka is only one country among them. There can be a tendency on the part of international organizations, including the World Bank and the IMF to avoid responsibility to help poor countries as those organizations are dominated by Western or rich countries.
Right to Seek Assistance
To seek assistance from international organisations and rich countries, however, is a right of poor and developing countries. On behalf of the people living in those countries, this right is absolutely a human right.
Strangely enough or ironically, the behaviour and attitudes of many elite politicians in poor and low-income countries go hand in glove with these elite politicians and bureaucrats in rich countries and international institutions. Sri Lanka is a very good examples, and most of the arguments in this direction come from the ‘nationalists’ and ‘leftists.’
Before going into details of this matter, let me first answer the question whether Sri Lanka has now fallen into the pit of low-income or poor countries. Sri Lanka’s GDP or per capita GDP is calculated first based on rupees. Let us take an example.
According to the Department of Census and Statistics, Sri Lanka’s GDP on market prices in 2021 was Rs. (million) 16,809,309. Sri Lanka’s population is 22 million. Therefore, Sri Lanka’s per capita income was Rs. 764,059 million.
As of today, the dollar value of this per capita GDP is just $ 2,380, based on the floating rupee (1 Dollar = Rs. 321), irrespective of the government’s ‘vision for prosperity’! The reasons are bad financial management, wishful thinking and power politics. The reasons apply not only to the present government but to all past governments.
IMF Assistance?
The second question that I want to raise is what is wrong in going to the IMF and seeking assistance? Sri Lanka joined the IMF in 1950 even before joining the UN (1955). One advantage the country has at present is ironically not seeking much assistance previously from this organisation meant to assist member countries (190 members now).
It was in 1965 that Sri Lanka first sought IMF ‘assistance’ and continued to do so until 2002 as a formality even without drawing the full amounts owed to the country under ‘Standby Arrangements.’ It was under J.R. Jayewardene that the country sought ‘Extended Fund Facility’ in 1979 due to the foreign exchange difficulties. But that amount had to be paid back in three years which raised much criticism. In 1988, the same administration sought ‘Structural Adjustment Facility’ again to be paid back in three years.
I happened to meet the IMF representative to South Asia/Sri Lanka in 1990 at a Norwegian friend’s place in Geneva (Inger Nordback). He was one who appeared in picture with JR during a famous ‘Vap Magul’ festival. Our casual meeting led to some talk about ‘IMF conditions’ and he told me that the problem with Sri Lankan representatives was that ‘they don’t bargain but leave with dissatisfaction after meetings.’ I hope this is not and should not be the case today.
Sri Lanka has received the last ‘Extended Fund Facility’ from IMF in 2016 to the amount of $ 952,230,000 to be paid in 2020 and still 892,283,000 is outstanding. Perhaps this is understandable, given the Covid pandemic and other circumstances. Otherwise, Sri Lanka has a ‘clean slate’ thanks to the ‘nationalist and leftist’ antipathy against the IMF!
Debt Restructuring
Let me touch on some other IMF matters. When Rajan Philips wrote ‘Mayhem in Mirihana; Shaken Gota is Home Under Curfew’ (Colombo Telegraph, 3 April), I posted the following comment and there were scathing attacks on me as usual!
“The declaration of curfew is acceptable to prevent further anarchy and violence today based on the experience at Mirihana and other places. However, this should not continue. The immediate root cause should soon be addressed. The government (whatever) should immediately negotiate with the IMF to obtain $ 10 billion to end the fuel crisis, energy shortages, essential imports, and loan repayments of this year. Then the unrest might subside. Debt restructuring can be done from next year. If the government is multi-partisan, it is very much better in negotiating with the IMF. There is no point in obtaining ad hoc loans from countries although those could be utilized later. It is already too late. IMF officials completed discussions with the government officials in December although the Report came out in February. This is April. Whatever the weaknesses or biases of the IMF, it is the main international mechanism to rescue countries under international monetary constraints. Undoubtedly, Sri Lanka must agree for strict conditions which could be negotiated. When you fall into a pit, you must escape from the same pit.”
I was looking at the economic side of the crisis and still maintain the same positions except the fifth sentence of the above quote: ‘Debt restructuring can be done from next year.’
Obviously, debt restructuring should start forthwith. Past governments, including the present, have irresponsibly depended on international sovereign bonds at higher rates of interest and purely on commercial conditions even with China. A poor country like Sri Lanka cannot afford that. The present debt obligations for this year appear to exceed $ 7 billion. Forex reserves at present however do not exceed 2 billion, necessary for even essential imports.
The government has appointed a good three-member expert panel to advice and negotiate with the IMF. The appointment of the present Central Bank Governor is also commendable. While negotiating with the countries, like India and China, or institutions like the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank to postpone the dept repayments, if Sri Lanka could obtain around $ 10 billion from the IMF, some of the economic reasons for the present crisis can be ameliorated.
Political Crisis
The present political mobilisations with the slogan ‘Gota, go home’ are mainly political, of course based on economic and social reasons. However, to seek IMF assistance to resolve the economic crisis there should be some political stability. This is something Sri Lanka is lacking not only under the present government, but it was there even under the last government.
The spontaneous protests from non-political sources at least have understood this calamity without supporting any political party. The question however is what are the alternatives?
During the debates on the IMF report in Parliament, no MP on the government side or in the Opposition never came up with a constructive proposal. Even Sajith Premadasa’s argument was to resolve the Forex crisis acquiring money laundering revealed in the Pandora Papers. The gravity of the crisis was undermined. The debates were focused on personal attacks and trivial political matters.
The Opposition is now proposing a ‘no confidence motion’ on the government and an impeachment against the President if the former is successful. On the other hand, the so-called ‘independents’ who broke away from the government are proposing an ‘interim government’ until the economic crisis is resolved, and the country can hold elections. That kind of a government could include Ranil Wickremesinghe, M. A. Sumanthiran, and Harsha de Silva if not Sajith Premadasa. No Rajapaksa should be included except the President who should promise to leave politics within two years. Under such an interim government the President’s power should be curtailed. This could be the opening for changing the presidential system among other things.
Opinion
Child food poverty: A prowling menace
by Dr B.J.C.Perera
MBBS(Cey), DCH(Cey), DCH(Eng), MD(Paed), MRCP(UK), FRCP(Edin),
FRCP(Lon), FRCPCH(UK), FSLCPaed, FCCP, Hony FRCPCH(UK), Hony. FCGP(SL)
Specialist Consultant Paediatrician and Honorary Senior Fellow,
Postgraduate Institute of Medicine, University of Colombo, Sri Lanka.
Joint Editor, Sri Lanka Journal of Child Health
In an age of unprecedented global development, technological advancements, universal connectivity, and improvements in living standards in many areas of the world, it is a very dark irony that child food poverty remains a pressing issue. UNICEF defines child food poverty as children’s inability to access and consume a nutritious and diverse diet in early childhood. Despite the planet Earth’s undisputed capacity to produce enough food to nourish everyone, millions of children still go hungry each day. We desperately need to explore the multifaceted deleterious effects of child food poverty, on physical health, cognitive development, emotional well-being, and societal impacts and then try to formulate a road map to alleviate its deleterious effects.
Every day, right across the world, millions of parents and families are struggling to provide nutritious and diverse foods that young children desperately need to reach their full potential. Growing inequities, conflict, and climate crises, combined with rising food prices, the overabundance of unhealthy foods, harmful food marketing strategies and poor child-feeding practices, are condemning millions of children to child food poverty.
In a communique dated 06th June 2024, UNICEF reports that globally, 1 in 4 children; approximately 181 million under the age of five, live in severe child food poverty, defined as consuming at most, two of eight food groups in early childhood. These children are up to 50 per cent more likely to suffer from life-threatening malnutrition. Child Food Poverty: Nutrition Deprivation in Early Childhood – the third issue of UNICEF’s flagship Child Nutrition Report – highlights that millions of young children are unable to access and consume the nutritious and diverse diets that are essential for their growth and development in early childhood and beyond.
It is highlighted in the report that four out of five children experiencing severe child food poverty are fed only breastmilk or just some other milk and/or a starchy staple, such as maize, rice or wheat. Less than 10 per cent of these children are fed fruits and vegetables and less than 5 per cent are fed nutrient-dense foods such as eggs, fish, poultry, or meat. These are horrendous statistics that should pull at the heartstrings of the discerning populace of this world.
The report also identifies the drivers of child food poverty. Strikingly, though 46 per cent of all cases of severe child food poverty are among poor households where income poverty is likely to be a major driver, 54 per cent live in relatively wealthier households, among whom poor food environments and feeding practices are the main drivers of food poverty in early childhood.
One of the most immediate and visible effects of child food poverty is its detrimental impact on physical health. Malnutrition, which can result from both insufficient calorie intake and lack of essential nutrients, is a prevalent consequence. Chronic undernourishment during formative years leads to stunted growth, weakened immune systems, and increased susceptibility to infections and diseases. Children who do not receive adequate nutrition are more likely to suffer from conditions such as anaemia, rickets, and developmental delays.
Moreover, the lack of proper nutrition can have long-term health consequences. Malnourished children are at a higher risk of developing chronic illnesses such as heart disease, diabetes, and obesity later in life. The paradox of child food poverty is that it can lead to both undernutrition and overnutrition, with children in food-insecure households often consuming calorie-dense but nutrient-poor foods due to economic constraints. This dietary pattern increases the risk of obesity, creating a vicious cycle of poor health outcomes.
The impacts of child food poverty extend beyond physical health, severely affecting cognitive development and educational attainment. Adequate nutrition is crucial for brain development, particularly in the early years of life. Malnutrition can impair cognitive functions such as attention, memory, and problem-solving skills. Studies have consistently shown that malnourished children perform worse academically compared to their well-nourished peers. Inadequate nutrition during early childhood can lead to reduced school readiness and lower IQ scores. These children often struggle to concentrate in school, miss more days due to illness, and have lower overall academic performance. This educational disadvantage perpetuates the cycle of poverty, as lower educational attainment reduces future employment opportunities and earning potential.
The emotional and psychological effects of child food poverty are profound and are often overlooked. Food insecurity creates a constant state of stress and anxiety for both children and their families. The uncertainty of not knowing when or where the next meal will come from can lead to feelings of helplessness and despair. Children in food-insecure households are more likely to experience behavioural problems, including hyperactivity, aggression, and withdrawal. The stigma associated with poverty and hunger can further exacerbate these emotional challenges. Children who experience food poverty may feel shame and embarrassment, leading to social isolation and reduced self-esteem. This psychological toll can have lasting effects, contributing to mental health issues such as depression and anxiety in adolescence and adulthood.
Child food poverty also perpetuates cycles of poverty and inequality. Children who grow up in food-insecure households are more likely to remain in poverty as adults, continuing the intergenerational transmission of disadvantage. This cycle of poverty exacerbates social disparities, contributing to increased crime rates, reduced social cohesion, and greater reliance on social welfare programmes. The repercussions of child food poverty ripple through society, creating economic and social challenges that affect everyone. The healthcare costs associated with treating malnutrition-related illnesses and chronic diseases are substantial. Additionally, the educational deficits linked to child food poverty result in a less skilled workforce, which hampers economic growth and productivity.
Addressing child food poverty requires a multi-faceted approach that tackles both immediate needs and underlying causes. Policy interventions are crucial in ensuring that all children have access to adequate nutrition. This can include expanding social safety nets, such as food assistance programmes and school meal initiatives, as well as targeted manoeuvres to reach more vulnerable families. Ensuring that these programmes are adequately funded and effectively implemented is essential for their success.
In addition to direct food assistance, broader economic and social policies are needed to address the root causes of poverty. This includes efforts to increase household incomes through living wage policies, job training programs, and economic development initiatives. Supporting families with affordable childcare, healthcare, and housing can also alleviate some of the financial pressures that contribute to food insecurity.
Community-based initiatives play a vital role in combating child food poverty. Local food banks, community gardens, and nutrition education programmes can help provide immediate relief and promote long-term food security. Collaborative efforts between government, non-profits, and the private sector are necessary to create sustainable solutions.
Child food poverty is a profound and inescapable issue with far-reaching consequences. Its deleterious effects on physical health, cognitive development, emotional well-being, and societal stability underscore the urgent need for comprehensive action. As we strive for a more equitable and just world, addressing child food poverty must be a priority. By ensuring that all children have access to adequate nutrition, we can lay the foundation for a healthier, more prosperous future for individuals and society as a whole. The fight against child food poverty is not just a moral imperative but an investment in our collective future. Healthy, well-nourished children are more likely to grow into productive, contributing members of society. The benefits of addressing this issue extend beyond individual well-being, enhancing economic stability and social harmony. It is incumbent upon us all to recognize and act upon the understanding that every child deserves the right to adequate nutrition and the opportunity to thrive.
Despite all of these existent challenges, it is very definitely possible to end child food poverty. The world needs targeted interventions to transform food, health, and social protection systems, and also take steps to strengthen data systems to track progress in reducing child food poverty. All these manoeuvres must comprise a concerted effort towards making nutritious and diverse diets accessible and affordable to all. We need to call for child food poverty reduction to be recognized as a metric of success towards achieving global and national nutrition and development goals.
Material from UNICEF reports and AI assistance are acknowledged.
Opinion
Do opinion polls matter?
By Dr Upul Wijayawardhana
The colossal failure of not a single opinion poll predicting accurately the result of the Indian parliamentary election, the greatest exercise in democracy in the world, raises the question whether the importance of opinion polls is vastly exaggerated. During elections two types of opinion polls are conducted; one based on intentions to vote, published during or before the campaign, often being not very accurate as these are subject to many variables but exit polls, done after the voting where a sample tally of how the voters actually voted, are mostly accurate. However, of the 15 exit polls published soon after all the votes were cast in the massive Indian election, 13 vastly overpredicted the number of seats Modi’s BJP led coalition NDA would obtain, some giving a figure as high as 400, the number Modi claimed he is aiming for. The other two polls grossly underestimated predicting a hung parliament. The actual result is that NDA passed the threshold of 272 comfortably, there being no landslide. BJP by itself was not able to cross the threshold, a significant setback for an overconfident Mody! Whether this would result in less excesses on the part of Modi, like Muslim-bashing, remains to be seen. Anyway, the statement issued by BJP that they would be investigating the reasons for failure rather than blaming the process speaks very highly of the maturity of the democratic process in India.
I was intrigued by this failure of opinion polls as this differs dramatically from opinion polls in the UK. I never failed to watch ‘Election night specials’ on BBC; as the Big Ben strikes ‘ten’ (In the UK polls close at 10pm} the anchor comes out with “Exit polls predict that …” and the actual outcome is often almost as predicted. However, many a time opinion polls conducted during the campaign have got the predictions wrong. There are many explanations for this.
An opinion poll is defined as a research survey of public opinion from a particular sample, the origin of which can be traced back to the 1824 US presidential election, when two local newspapers in North Carolina and Delaware predicted the victory of Andrew Jackson but the sample was local. First national survey was done in 1916 by the magazine, Literary Digest, partly for circulation-raising, by mailing millions of postcards and counting the returns. Of course, this was not very scientific though it accurately predicted the election of Woodrow Wilson.
Since then, opinion polls have grown in extent and complexity with scientific methodology improving the outcome of predictions not only in elections but also in market research. As a result, some of these organisations have become big businesses. For instance, YouGov, an internet-based organisation co-founded by the Iraqi-born British politician Nadim Zahawi, based in London had a revenue of 258 million GBP in 2023.
In Sri Lanka, opinion polls seem to be conducted by only one organisation which, by itself, is a disadvantage, as pooled data from surveys conducted by many are more likely to reflect the true situation. Irrespective of the degree of accuracy, politicians seem to be dependent on the available data which lend explanations to the behaviour of some.
The Institute for Health Policy’s (IHP) Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey has been tracking the voting intentions for the likely candidates for the Presidential election. At one stage the NPP/JVP leader AKD was getting a figure over 50%. This together with some degree of international acceptance made the JVP behave as if they are already in power, leading to some incidents where their true colour was showing.
The comments made by a prominent member of the JVP who claimed that the JVP killed only the riff-raff, raised many questions, in addition to being a total insult to many innocents killed by them including my uncle. Do they have the authority to do so? Do extra-judicial killings continue to be JVP policy? Do they consider anyone who disagrees with them riff-raff? Will they kill them simply because they do not comply like one of my admired teachers, Dr Gladys Jayawardena who was considered riff-raff because she, as the Chairman of the State Pharmaceutical Corporation, arranged to buy drugs cheaper from India? Is it not the height of hypocrisy that AKD is now boasting of his ties to India?
Another big-wig comes with the grand idea of devolving law and order to village level. As stated very strongly, in the editorial “Pledges and reality” (The Island, 20 May) is this what they intend to do: Have JVP kangaroo-courts!
Perhaps, as a result of these incidents AKD’s ratings has dropped to 39%, according to the IHP survey done in April, and Sajith Premadasa’s ratings have increased gradually to match that. Whilst they are level pegging Ranil is far behind at 13%. Is this the reason why Ranil is getting his acolytes to propagate the idea that the best for the country is to extend his tenure by a referendum? He forced the postponement of Local Governments elections by refusing to release funds but he cannot do so for the presidential election for constitutional reasons. He is now looking for loopholes. Has he considered the distinct possibility that the referendum to extend the life of the presidency and the parliament if lost, would double the expenditure?
Unfortunately, this has been an exercise in futility and it would not be surprising if the next survey shows Ranil’s chances dropping even further! Perhaps, the best option available to Ranil is to retire gracefully, taking credit for steadying the economy and saving the country from an anarchic invasion of the parliament, rather than to leave politics in disgrace by coming third in the presidential election. Unless, of course, he is convinced that opinion polls do not matter and what matters is the ballots in the box!
Opinion
Thoughtfulness or mindfulness?
By Prof. Kirthi Tennakone
ktenna@yahoo.co.uk
Thoughtfulness is the quality of being conscious of issues that arise and considering action while seeking explanations. It facilitates finding solutions to problems and judging experiences.
Almost all human accomplishments are consequences of thoughtfulness.
Can you perform day-to-day work efficiently and effectively without being thoughtful? Obviously, no. Are there any major advancements attained without thought and contemplation? Not a single example!
Science and technology, art, music and literary compositions and religion stand conspicuously as products of thought.
Thought could have sinister motives and the only way to eliminate them is through thought itself. Thought could distinguish right from wrong.
Empathy, love, amusement, and expression of sorrow are reflections of thought.
Thought relieves worries by understanding or taking decisive action.
Despite the universal virtue of thoughtfulness, some advocate an idea termed mindfulness, claiming the benefits of nurturing this quality to shape mental wellbeing. The concept is defined as focusing attention to the present moment without judgment. A way of forgetting the worries and calming the mind – a form of meditation. A definition coined in the West to decouple the concept from religion. The attitude could have a temporary advantage as a method of softening negative feelings such as sorrow and anger. However, no man or woman can afford to be non-judgmental all the time. It is incompatible with indispensable thoughtfulness! What is the advantage of diverting attention to one thing without discernment during a few tens of minute’s meditation? The instructors of mindfulness meditation tell you to focus attention on trivial things. Whereas in thoughtfulness, you concentrate the mind on challenging issues. Sometimes arriving at groundbreaking scientific discoveries, solution of mathematical problems or the creation of masterpieces in engineering, art, or literature.
The concept of meditation and mindfulness originated in ancient India around 1000 BCE. Vedic ascetics believed the practice would lead to supernatural powers enabling disclosure of the truth. Failing to meet the said aspiration, notwithstanding so many stories in scripture, is discernable. Otherwise, the world would have been awakened to advancement by ancient Indians before the Greeks. The latter culture emphasized thoughtfulness!
In India, Buddha was the first to deviate from the Vedic philosophy. His teachers, Alara Kalama and Uddaka Ramaputra, were adherents of meditation. Unconvinced of their approach, Buddha concluded a thoughtful analysis of the actualities of life should be the path to realisation. However, in an environment dominated by Vedic tradition, meditation residually persisted when Buddha’s teachings transformed into a religion.
In the early 1970s, a few in the West picked up meditation and mindfulness. We Easterners, who criticize Western ideas all the time, got exalted after seeing something Eastern accepted in the Western circles. Thereafter, Easterners took up the subject more seriously, in the spirit of its definition in the West.
Today, mindfulness has become a marketable commodity – a thriving business spreading worldwide, fueled largely by advertising. There are practice centres, lessons onsite and online, and apps for purchase. Articles written by gurus of the field appear on the web.
What attracts people to mindfulness programmes? Many assume them being stressed and depressed needs to improve their mental capacity. In most instances, these are minor complaints and for understandable reasons, they do not seek mainstream medical interventions but go for exaggeratedly advertised alternatives. Mainstream medical treatments are based on rigorous science and spell out both the pros and cons of the procedure, avoiding overstatement. Whereas the alternative sector makes unsubstantiated claims about the efficacy and effectiveness of the treatment.
Advocates of mindfulness claim the benefits of their prescriptions have been proven scientifically. There are reports (mostly in open-access journals which charge a fee for publication) indicating that authors have found positive aspects of mindfulness or identified reasons correlating the efficacy of such activities. However, they rarely meet standards normally required for unequivocal acceptance. The gold standard of scientific scrutiny is the statistically significant reproducibility of claims.
If a mindfulness guru claims his prescription of meditation cures hypertension, he must record the blood pressure of participants before and after completion of the activity and show the blood pressure of a large percentage has stably dropped and repeat the experiment with different clients. He must also conduct sessions where he adopts another prescription (a placebo) under the same conditions and compares the results. This is not enough, he must request someone else to conduct sessions following his prescription, to rule out the influence of the personality of the instructor.
The laity unaware of the above rigid requirements, accede to purported claims of mindfulness proponents.
A few years ago, an article published and widely cited stated that the practice of mindfulness increases the gray matter density of the brain. A more recent study found there is no such correlation. Popular expositions on the subject do not refer to the latter report. Most mindfulness research published seems to have been conducted intending to prove the benefits of the practice. The hard science demands doing the opposite as well-experiments carried out intending to disprove the claims. You need to be skeptical until things are firmly established.
Despite many efforts diverted to disprove Einstein’s General Theory of Relativity, no contradictions have been found in vain to date, strengthening the validity of the theory. Regarding mindfulness, as it stands, benefits can neither be proved nor disproved, to the gold standard of scientific scrutiny.
Some schools in foreign lands have accommodated mindfulness training programs hoping to develop the mental facility of students and Sri Lanka plans to follow. However, studies also reveal these exercises are ineffective or do more harm than good. Have we investigated this issue before imitation?
Should we force our children to focus attention on one single goal without judgment, even for a moment?
Why not allow young minds to roam wild in their deepest imagination and build castles in the air and encourage them to turn these fantasies into realities by nurturing their thoughtfulness?
Be more thoughtful than mindful?