Features
Has Gota fatigue set in?
by Kumar David
The enthusiasm that yesteryear enveloped the president is much subdued, the mood at best is ‘give him more time, it has been a bad year, let’s wait and see’. On the other side detractors who feared repression, racism and family banditry seem mollified that events have hurled such heavy blows that he is unable to raise his head and cow down the masses, who in any case are so passive and need no cowing down. The sullen Sinhala-Buddhist mass broods but is resigned to its self-inflicted fate. Is this calm before a storm? I don’t know. And who knows what’s going on in the President’s head? He must see that right now its point, set and game against him, and maybe it will be match-point in a year as there is no visible road to recovery. Does he want to run for a second term or will he cut and run – I don’t think even Gota knows the answer yet.
Here’s the reasoning for this pessimistic prognosis. Three factors which will decide the regime’s fate in the public mind: the unfolding pandemic, whether the government can turn the economy round and third how long is the arm China will extend to help if/when the Double-Paksa (two Rajapaksas) regime sinks. The gloomiest covid scenarios painted by some medical-professional and lay commentators are I reckon exaggerated. Nearly one million cases and many tens of thousands dead by years end! No there isn’t reason to fear such a catastrophe now that vaccination is in progress and lockdowns are tightening. The point however is the damage that has been done so far; culpability, fairly or otherwise laid on the presidency. That things will get somewhat worse in the next few months do not augur well for the boss. Taking everything past and probable future into account the pandemic experience will count badly against Gota. It will be an eagerly exploited propaganda tool in the hands of opponents and will leave the voter sullen and angry.
The economy is what I would be most concerned about if I were the government. Does anyone see a turn around, does anyone see light at the end of the tunnel? I have kept an eye on the utterances of ministers and regime mouthpieces and can no longer find mention of vistas of prosperity and splendour. The government is with its back to the wall. The economy will shrink in 2021 (and maybe 2022), increase in prices of consumer essentials is inexorable. What improvement in productivity and output in agricultural and manufacture can one see that will reverse this trend? Where are trade deficit and balance of payments heading? I do not conceal my political inclinations but these rebukes are intended to be objective. If wrong I ask to be corrected.
This pessimistic reading of the economy is compounded by stupidities that are hard to forgive. I mention just two; the regime’s hara-kiri on fertilisers and the delusion of 70% renewable electric energy by 2030! Everyone with a modicum of knowledge about agriculture has shrieked that the president’s order to go 100% organic in fertiliser at once will entail huge falls in output. Therefore his instructions will thankfully be ignored. Though some scoundrel pseudo-experts serenaded from the rooftops pledging 70% renewable electrical energy by 2030 (a few donkeys even said 80%) the charade has been quietly dropped. Once again I confidently predict that electrical energy from renewable sources will, with luck, rise to 30% by 2030. The laws of physics are more immutable than the edicts of Gota. The general point is this: Yes we are facing hard times because of covid and the global economic downturn, but my god isn’t that bad enough! Must we compound it by making idiots of ourselves, must we grind food production into the ground? The economic adversity facing the country is more than half manmade; actually the manmade part is regime made.
Corruption is endemic, so no one will be surprised that two appointees to the Port City Commission have shady reputations. Colombo Telegraph says Priyath Bandu Wickrema was implicated by a Presidential Commission in large scale corruption and accused of a multi-million dollar tax scam in connection with Yoshitha Rajapaksa’s Carlton Sports Club. He is also facing charges for loaning Port Authority workers to Mahinda’s re-election campaign. Saliya Wickremasuriya was arrested and investigated in connection with the Tiran Alles led Rs.169 million RADA tsunami fraud, but the case was dismissed in 2020. What such people do in the coming year will fester Gota fatigue into wrath. Hasn’t he got enough crap on his plate as it is? Why, oh why, amass more dung? Such crappy names obviously were not forced on Gota by Beijing so the reason for their inclusion to be arranging for more larceny or recompense to cronies who helped with previous mischief.
In the period ahead, every decision of the PC Commission must be scrutinised with suspicion by public and Opposition in Parliament. Ambiguities are built into the Act such as, what land comes under the Commission’s mandate, provisions allowing PC investors to extend their reach into other parts of the country while still enjoying PC privileges, ambiguous concessions that are difficult to challenge in courts, and other infringements. These are not drafting blunders but deliberately inserted to give leeway for mischief. The threat of scrutiny has to be publicised so that bona fide investors are forewarned that corrupt, illegitimate or undemocratic actions will be challenged or reversed. A consultative process needs to set up to fashion amendments to the PC Act or in the alternative how best it can be repealed altogether. This requires a fine and filigreed effort to work round potential contradictions with contracts that may have been awarded in good faith.
The Biden stimulus package is creating a boom in consumer spending. The Economist magazine says US disposable income per person has risen by 27% since February 2020, admittedly a low bar. It is visible everywhere; malls are crowded and queues at checkouts are long, beauticians and on-line orders are at a swell. This doesn’t auger well because inflation is surging (annualised at 4.2% in April from 2.6% in March) far above the Fed’s target of 2% to 2.5%. If the trend continues as seems likely the Federal Reserve (US central bank) will have to raise interest rates which will cut the ground under a surging stock market and property prices will escalate. Stocks slid in the US and around the world amid concerns that higher inflation would lead to higher interest rates. But that’s looking some months down the road, right now there’s a surge in demand, in capital investment, supply-chain bottle-necks and merrymaking among materials suppliers. But Sri Lanka seems to be missing out and its balance of trade hasn’t brightened. The deficit in April 2021 was $ 830 billion and the forecast for the next twelve months is downward (https://tradingeconomics.com/sri-lanka/balance-of-trade). Unless these forecasts are revised upwards they foreshadow more gloom for the government.
The storyline therefore moves to debt and rising debt, the desperation for a lifeline for a drowning man, and China to the rescue. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t blame the Chinese any more than I would blame any other customer of wares that a whore persists in offering. If Lanka is getting deeper into debt to China, it only shows that gentlemen from Beijing are more frequent flyers into the whore’s arms. Bluntly said, Lanka’s self-inflicted economic woes make it a global debt-harlot and her venal leaders cash in like pimps. It is unlikely that Beijing dictated the text of the Port City Act but China is promoting the project because it is in its own interest. Sri Lanka is becoming a client state of the Middle Kingdom and it is good for the master if the vassal prospers. Hence for its own good name Beijing would like to see Lanka do well, but does that mean China will back an authoritarian regime even if/when it is drawn into conflict with the people themselves? It is possible that Beijing has learnt from its mistakes in Burma, Pol Pot Cambodia and some African dictatorships where it was the ally and stabiliser of ghastly dictators.
I hope the answer to this question is yes it has learnt; that Beijing will not repeat the mistake. We can help ourselves by invigorating ourselves as nonaligned and not as a threat to Beijing even as we rid ourselves of authoritarianism. By “we” I am referring to a hopefully unified, opposition that must be fused to prevent Gota and his clique from rescinding or subverting the next presidential election. If Washington, Delhi or Beijing can help us keep afloat, let alone become prosperous, that’s welcome so long as democracy is not subverted. True, beggars can’t be choosers but a little extra breathing space is not a lot to ask for. If the people of Sri Lanka and an authoritarian regime come to blows, Beijing must stand aside if not morally help the people. (Beijing’s declared principle of physical non-intervention need not preclude a moral stance).
One final point that we in Sri Lanka need to grasp is that our fate from time immemorial has been linked to the outside world because we are small. From our genes, to the arrival of the Buddha’s message, to 450 years of colonialism, to independence therefrom in 1948, we have been a footnote in subcontinental history. Likewise a dictatorship in Sri Lanka is impossible in modern times, though that won’t stop the (Raja) Paksas from trying. People and to a degree governments in the liberal democratic West will sanction a Lankan dictator, India will strangle him since a democratic Lanka is safer for India. Why not China too while giving us lots of money (sic!), decide that there’s a red line it won’t cross? Paksas come and Paksas go but stable democracy should last.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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