Harrowing escalation of Middle East tensions

The recent bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria, suspected to have been carried out by Israel, takes Middle East confrontations to harrowing heights. A most crucial juncture in regional politics could very well have been reached with this attack and those meaning the region well could only hope that wise counsel and patience would prevail among the adversaries concerned.

Chief among the Iranian casualties in the attack was an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander and the Iranian authorities are on record that their response to the bombing will be very ‘decisive’. However, at the time of this writing there is no conclusive evidence that the attack was carried out by Israel, although current security and military developments in the Middle East hint at an Israeli involvement in the incident. Accordingly, there is no denying that the world is faced currently with steeply escalating confrontations in the region, which, if not defused deftly could lead to a full-blown regional war.

The reasons for these apprehensions among the thoughtful ought to be plain to see. Iran is a staunch backer of the Palestinian cause and is solidly behind Hamas in the ongoing blood-letting in the Gaza. Islamic Jihadist groups, such as Hisbollah in Lebanon, which have a high military presence in Israel’s neighbouring states enjoy Iranian patronage. Israel is thus hemmed in by an arch of enemy states.

Given Iran’s pervasive and decisive influence in the region as the veritable Father of Islamic Fundamentalism and considering Israel’s alienation among the Middle Eastern region’s Muslim majority countries, Iran could be said to be conducting a proxy war against Israel by militarily and morally backing Hamas.

It is no secret that sections of Iran’s political establishment have vowed to wipe out Israel. Of such proportions is Iran’s enmity towards Israel. It goes without saying that the Israeli state would need to brace for particularly pernicious and destructive revenge attacks by Iran, going forward.

Of the numerous adversarial states surrounding Israel, Iran is the most formidable. The latter’s suspected nuclear capability puts Iran on an even footing with Israel from the viewpoint of military strength and destructiveness. For these reasons and more currently escalating military tensions need to be viewed as boding ill for the Middle East and the world.

In the event of there being a ‘tit-for-tat’ stepping up of hostilities between Iran and its allies and Israel, the latter would need to fight on several fronts simultaneously. Israel did just that successfully in the sixties and seventies, but this time around a wide-ranging war between Israel and its enemies could lead to mutual annihilation, considering that both sides possess a nuclear capability.

The world has no choice but to hope that good sense would prevail among these antagonists in the days ahead. What the UN and the peace makers of the world are bound to find most disheartening is the fact that neither side would be prepared to step down from its entrenched policy positions. Israel is vowing not to relent until it militarily neutralizes Hamas while the latter and its key backers are in the mindset that Israel must be brought to its knees if not wiped out.

The prospects of a negotiated political settlement have thus receded from view. Among other factors, what is bound to compound this mood of pessimism among those sections seeking a peaceful settlement is the seeming ambivalence of the US, Israel’s staunchest backer.

On the one hand, the US wants a ceasefire that would enable badly needed humanitarian assistance to reach the civilians of the Gaza and on the other hand it is unrelenting in its efforts to bolster the military capabilities of Israel. Only a couple of days back the Biden administration approved the supplying new and sophisticated weaponry to Israel, including fighter jets of the latest make, running into several billions of dollars. The latter moves kill off all hopes of expeditiously defusing the war.

However, the US’ seeming obduracy is not the only factor that is ensuring the continuation of the blood-letting in the Middle East. Hamas’ staunch backers, most notably Iran, are equally at fault. They too would need to see the dire necessity for a let-up in the fighting and appreciate the merits of a political settlement.

Meanwhile, all signs point to an escalation of the war in the Ukraine as well. While neither side is making any notable gains in Ukraine, the latter seems to be in the process of making the military drone a doubly effective weapon of war. Two days back, Ukraine fired off a drone which flew an unprecedented 1200 kilometers into Russian territory and destroyed infrastructure that are vital for Russia in its war effort. Counter-attacks by Russia to this drone strike are bound to be quite mind-numbing.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is on record that Europe has entered a ‘pre-war era’ and he could very well be correct. It is plain to see that anarchy and world ‘disorder’ have been taken several notches higher by the Gaza and Ukraine wars.

The world had a considerable degree of international disorder in the run-up to World War Two as well. Nazi dictator Adolf Hitler, for example, was allowed by the Western Allies to invade and seize territory after territory in Eastern Europe on the eve of the war and the League of Nations stood gape-mouthed and did nothing about it. The League was helpless in the face of Hitler’s excesses.

It would be premature to write-off the UN as equaling the League in helplessness in the face of international law breakers and bullies but current developments could compel the more cynical of observers to take up that viewpoint. For example, the UN Security Council could be described as suffering from some sort of inner-paralysis because it cannot speak out and act as one to halt the world’s relentless slide into worsening anarchy and bloodshed. Nothing new would be said if the commentator takes up the view that International Law is deafeningly silent currently.

Accordingly, in a sense the world has entered a ‘pre-war’ stage but the international community could not be said to have run out of options. Democratic development will help in blunting the current anarchic tendencies but it is a project of very long gestation. It should be persevered with nevertheless.

The anti-war movements of yesteryear are a crying need now and should be urgently revived and popularized by the well- meaning of the world. Likewise, strategic arms limitation talks and kindred dialogues should be revived and pursued by reconciliation-inclined big powers, not forgetting decisive moves towards worldwide nuclear arms non-proliferation.