Hail Mary pass to avoid arrest and/or imprisonment?

Early Announcement for Trump’s Candidature for 2024

by Vijaya Chandrasoma

On Tuesday, November 15, former disgraced, twice-impeached former President Donald Trump announced his candidacy for the Presidency in 2024, under the aegis of the Republican Party. The announcement was made unilaterally, without consensual agreement, even discussion, with members of the Party.An announcement of candidature for the presidency, over two years before the scheduled election, is unprecedented. It is the earliest such an announcement has been made in history. It was also made at a time when numerous Republicans are publicly declaring their intentions to run for the 2024 Presidency.

Trump will almost certainly not be the only Republican candidate in 2024, even if he wriggles out of his criminal charges. Already, several candidates, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, former Vice President Mike Pence and former Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, have declared their intentions to run. There will be others.

Trump’s rally for his announcement was scheduled in the certainty, according to all polls, of celebrating an unprecedented Republican triumph in the midterms with substantial gains in both Houses. Also, to celebrate the election wins of the slate of Trump endorsed candidates in the House and the Senate. Sadly for the Republicans, and against all expert forecasts, Democrats retained their majority in the Senate, lost its majority in the House by a razor thin majority, in contrast to the polls’ prediction of a Republican flip of 50/60 seats.

Trump’s endorsees lost in all the competitive states and the incumbent Republican Congressmen endorsed by Trump, either lost, or won with reduced majorities, even in deep red districts. Although Trump only takes credit for the wins, many members of the rank and file have complained that their abysmal performance in the midterms was caused mainly by Trump’s involvement.

The atmosphere at the Republican rally was subdued and somber. Trump’s speech was lackluster, very different from his usual performance of vulgar histrionics. He read from the prepared speech, and did not stray onto his hypocritical displays of patriotic emotion. He had no reason to lie, because the lies were already included in the prepared script. He reflected the doleful mien of a desperate gambler who has played his last card, and is now facing dire consequences. I am personally familiar with that countenance.

Trump is facing several civil and criminal charges. Most of these investigations have reached conclusion, and an arrest of the former president is imminent. His crimes fall under several themes: financial, tax and insurance frauds during his presidency; extortion and obstruction of justice; his role in the January 6 insurrection; his alleged interference in the 2020 election; and the mishandling – a polite word for stealing – of confidential documents, 15 boxes of them, and storing them in an unsecured basement at his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida.

Some of these documents included Top Secret information about allies’ nuclear capabilities and information about the progress of CIA operations. The stealing of these documents, the rightful property of the government to be secured at the National Archives, is a felony tantamount to espionage and treason. It is alleged that his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has already sold some of these Top-Secret documents to a foreign country.

I believe the primary motive behind this extraordinarily early announcement of his candidature for the 2024 election has nothing to do with a desire for a second term at the White House, and everything to do with staying out of prison. Trump has played his “Hail Mary” pass, which in American football parlance means “a very long forward pass, typically made in desperation, with an exceptionally small chance of achieving completion”. Trump, the Chosen One, is begging the Virgin Mary (his heavenly grandmother?) for strength and help in keeping him out of prison.

The law demands that no criminal action should be taken against a political candidate two months before an election, be it dogcatcher or president. Trump, in his convoluted logic, is of the lopsided opinion that the announcement of his candidacy for the highest post in the land two years before the election should give him immunity from arrest and/or imprisonment.

This will probably end up as his second Big Lie, that the period of immunity from arrest is not two months but two years. Ever the victim, Trump will replace his first slogan about the 2020 election, STOP THE STEAL with a new lie, “TWO YEARS, NOT TWO MONTHS” to his frenzied cult at rallies, which they will believe without a shred of evidence or any basis in the law. As they still believe the STOP THE STEAL lie even after two years after the election.

Which brings us to his second motive. This early announcement will succeed in fleecing his gullible supporters of millions of dollars, on the pretext of the need to pay legal fees to fight this second Big Lie in the courts. They continue to believe, in the face of conclusive evidence to the contrary, that Trump is the victim of a witch hunt surpassing the infamous witch trials in Salem, over 300 years ago. And again put millions of dollars into Trump’s pockets.

They will likely kiss the ring yet again, and recoronate Trump as their leader. Trump, in their bigoted minds, remains the last white hope to perpetuate White Supremacy, which they fear is slipping away. They will place the blame for the debacle in the recent midterms on someone else: Senator Mitch McConnell? Speaker Kevin McCarthy? His cokehead son, Donald Jr? For the radical right, any Republican, bar one, is expendable.

Who knows what people whose minds are twisted, whose hearts are full of hate, will do? They are more than likely to indulge in January 6 type riots if their Fuhrer is arrested. “Blood in the streets” has already been predicted/incited by Trump and Senator Lindsey Graham if Trump is arrested. But if that happens, the U.S. now has a President who will immediately use its military and law enforcement might to crush them and send them back into the woodwork where they belong.

The Democrats also face an important decision. Nancy Pelosi will no longer be the Speaker of the House. Sadly, she announced on Thursday that she will no longer seek to be the minority leader of the House. She is 82 years old, and the recent attack by a Republican white supremacist thug on her 82-year-old husband of 60 years, an attack in which she was the target, has probably persuaded her to leave the job she has been carrying out magnificently for over two decades.

Whoever takes over as minority leader of the House will have a tough act to follow; who will have to contend with a ruthless and vengeful Republican holding the gavel, and a Party which will use its slim majority to bring dishonour to President Biden and block his progressive legislation.

Nancy Pelosi has been one of the outstanding heroines of her generation who inspired, and continues to inspire, many women to challenge for positions of leadership which had hitherto been denied to them. Most importantly, she has been the perfect role model for the younger generation, the little girls of today, to be a part of the present global movement proving that the phrase, even in current usage, describing women as “the weaker sex” to be a total misnomer, as they dare to claim their rightful place of gender equality in society.

As English philosopher John Stuart Mill said in 1869, “The principle which regulates the existing social relations between the two sexes – the legal subordination of one sex to another – is wrong in itself and is now one of the chief hindrances to human improvement.” True in 1869, true in 2022.

Liz Cheney, the defeated Congresswoman from Wyoming and Trump bete noire, is considering presidential a run as an Independent. In a recent interview on NBC’s Today television show, Liz Cheney said, “It (a 2024 presidential run) is something I’m thinking about. I’ll make a decision in the coming months”, emphasizing that she’ll be “doing whatever it takes to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office”.

The idea that Liz Cheney would win the Republican nomination for 2024 is not within the realms of reality, today. She is playing the long game, given that the volatile political climate will change several times in the next two years. Once Trump is eliminated and hopefully punished for his numerous crimes, she may be welcomed back into the folds of the Republican Party. In which case, she would be a participant in Republican Primaries and pre-election debates, which will include other Republican aspirants. While Ms Cheney may not have much of a chance of winning the Republican nomination, she is undeniably the perfect person to expose Trump’s crimes of fraud, sedition and treason on national television. And also reveal those of her 2024 rivals who were Trump’s enablers/sycophants complicit in his crimes until he fell out of favour.

Cheney’s second route would be to announce her candidature, in due time, by joining an existing, though lesser-known Party (American Independent, Libertarian, Green, to name three) and contest the presidency as an Independent under its aegis. As things stand today, Liz Cheney surely would act as a spoiler (if such a spoiler is needed) to ensure the victory for the Democrats by splitting the Republican vote in 2024. Liz Cheney is a staunch old-school Conservative, with the integrity and values of the pre-Nixon Republican Party. She has already proved that she will not support any Party which threatens the preservation of U.S. Democracy.

It is of vital importance that Democrats field a candidate capable of conclusively defeating any racist and regressive Republican. Whether it is President Biden or someone younger, we have to ensure that Democrats will be allowed to continue on the path they have taken towards social and economic justice – universal healthcare, free schooling up to and including universities, realistic minimum wages, affordable housing and all those benefits enjoyed by the citizens of all developed countries, bar, shamefully, the richest and most developed country in the world.

The younger generation played a decisive role in defeating the Republicans in the midterms. Even more importantly, they represent the generation that played the pivotal role in saving democracy in the United States. As long as they continue to play that dominant role, the U.S.’ future is in good hands.