Governance issues, etc., will have to be sorted out to avert further debt restructuring: Verité Research

By Rathindra Kuruwita

Unless Sri Lanka addressed its governance issues, the country would have to restructure its debt again like most countries that had unsustainable levels of corruption, Executive Director of Verité Research Nishan de Mel said in a recent televised interview.

Dr. De Mel said that as the government had decided to pay the Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF) only 9% for its investment until 2038 instead of the average Treasury bond interest rate of 13.5 percent, it would lose 12 trillion rupees.De Mel also said that Domestic Debt Optimization (DDO) was a phrase that the Sri Lankan government coined.

“Domestic debt restructuring usually means making credit owners take a loss for the benefit of the government. The word commonly used for this is restructuring, optimisation is a word that we have come up with,” he said.

De Mel said that the government’s proposal was to reduce the interest paid on the money at EPF and other such funds to 9.1 percent until 2038. However, the average interest paid for Treasury bonds over recent years was 13.5 percent, which is almost 50 percent more than the proposed interest for EPF, he said.

“We know the interest rates for Treasury Bonds because the government has released information about the interest rates of bonds issued because foreign creditors have been asking for transparency. By the end of 31 May this year, the average interest rate given to bondholders was 13.5 percent,” he said.

There had been years when interest rates for Treasury bills were below 9.1 percent. However, it was unlikely that the interest rates offered on Treasury bills would fall below 9.1 percent, he said. Sri Lanka was going through an uncertain time and governments could only lure people into buying bonds by offering attractive interest rates, de Mel added.

“We still can’t borrow from bond markets. So, the government will offer higher interest rates when it borrows from the domestic market. During the past two years, the government has paid about 30 percent interest to borrow from the domestic market. It is unlikely that interest rates for bonds will be less than 13.5 percent in the future,” he said.

De Mel said that at present there are 3.4 trillion rupees at the EPF, and it will reach about 25 trillion by 2038 at 13.5 percent interest. However, EPF funds would only grow to 13 trillion at 9.1 percent interest.

“That’s 12 trillion rupees less at 9.1 percent,” he said.

The Central Bank had a Monetary Board taking decisions on the EPF and there was a conflict of interest as CBSL was also entrusted with restructuring debt, de Mel said.

“A lot of people ask me why I am using 13.5 percent to calculate the losses. They tell me that the EPF already receives less than 13.5 percent in interest. The EPF is late in producing annual reports. The last available report was for 2020. The Central Bank produces its annual reports every year, but the EPF reports are delayed. There are many allegations about what happened. If someone tells me that EPF receives lower interest rates than the market rate for treasury bonds, that is another serious problem. All private sector employees are compelled to be a member of the EPF, so why are EPF beneficiaries receiving less than market rates?” he asked.

There are several pension funds, and CBSL workers have a special pension fund. De Mel said he was not aware if that pension fund, too, had been restructured.Although the parliament had approved a resolution on the domestic debt restructuring, the government could not change the interest rates given to EPF without changing some laws, he said.

“The laws governing the EPF say that the Central Bank must publish all investments it makes with EPF money. However, when we look at EPF’s financial statements, they have misinterpreted the above clause. Instead of listing out every investment, they are listing out every type of investment. This way, people can’t figure out what’s going on,” he said.

Those who are EPF beneficiaries will lose about 70 percent of the real value of their money because of inflation and the lower market rate of interest. However, foreign investors are only getting a 30 percent loss, he said.

“This is unequal treatment. There are two factors needed for sustainable domestic debt restructuring. One is that foreign creditors must take a deep haircut—over 50 percent. Secondly, the governance issues in a country must be addressed. Most countries have to restructure their debt more than once. And these countries have serious governance issues. So, to attain sustainability, we need foreign creditors to get a deeper haircut and we have to address our serious governance issues,.”