Features
Good King Ranil and his options: Keep running or end the Executive Presidency
by Rajan Philips
PAKISTAN’S twisted political saga continues without the slightest deviation from a tired and predictable script. PTI chairman Imran Khan has been found guilty of “corrupt practices”, disqualified from representing the people of Pakistan, fined Rs100,000, and sentenced to three years in jail for good measure.
Dawn (Pakistan Daily), August 6 Editorial The only relevance to Sri Lanka in the citation above is how a “twisted political saga continues without the slightest deviation from a tired and predictable script.” Sri Lanka’s political saga is also twisted but in far less precarious and less intractable ways than in Pakistan. Put another way, Sri Lanka’s political saga is a muddling version of the more dangerous drama in Pakistan. And the muddling version, in my view, arises out of Ranil Wickremesinghe’s moves and maneuvers to be a candidate at the next presidential election. His obstinate objective is to become an elected president after quite fortuitously becoming a caretaker president. And why is that objectionable? Here is why.
After he was ousted from office in April 2022 through the chicanery of a no confidence motion in parliament, Imran Khan has been agitating for general elections to be held for the people to decide who should be running their government – elected representatives or ensconced army generals. After ignoring the election calls for over a year, the Shehbaz Sharif government has dissolved parliament (for new elections mandated to be held within 90 days) just three days after the Election Commission barred the former Prime Minister from running for office for the next five years. The five year disbarment is based on the ridiculous three year jail sentence that the lower courts have meted out to Imran Khan based on spurious charges of improper declaration of ceremonial gifts received from foreign dignitaries. So, Pakistan’s tragic political drama continues with the same old script and the same unhidden military hand, but with a different cast of actors.
Unlike in Pakistan, there is no military hand in Sri Lanka, hidden or not hidden, despite occasional speculations to the contrary. The stifling leviathan in Sri Lanka is the Executive Presidency, which over a period of 46 years has emaciated parliament and reduced a reasonably well-functioning administrative machinery to institutional dysfunctionality. There are two sides to Sri Lanka’s current crisis: A collapsed economy and a dysfunctional political and administrative system. It is the latter dysfunctionality that primarily caused the collapse of the economy. At least a partial reforming of the political and administrative systems is necessary if the economy is to be salvaged and put on a sustainable development path.
Reform Possibilities
My contention is that any and all possibilities of even a partial political reform are being destroyed by Ranil Wickremesinghe’s pre-occupation with becoming an elected president. Put another way, going ahead with the next presidential election, whenever it is due or prematurely called, and enabling Wickremesinghe to become an elected President will permanently entrench the current political deformities. That will also scupper all efforts toward saving the economy and growing it.
The situation will not be any different or the prospects for reform will not get any better even if Ranil Wickremesinghe were to be defeated in a presidential election and someone else were to become President. This will be so even if Anura Kumara Dissanayake were to become the next elected President of Sri Lanka. It is not because Mr. Dissanayake will not sincerely try to achieve political reform including the ending of the elected presidential system. It is because his efforts will be systemically frustrated. He will be frustrated by parliament; the majority of whose members will be hostile to any constitutional reform initiative that the JVP may sponsor. The hostility and sabotage will be there whether it is the current parliament or a future parliament with JVP having as many as forty times more MPs than it has today.
Historically, the very first election for a new President in 1982 featured a candidate who ran on the sole plank of dismantling the presidential system, restoring parliamentary government, and selflessly withdrawing from power. That was Colvin R de Silva, but his promises were resoundingly rejected, and he became ‘the prophet outcast’ at home, though not quite like in the circumstances of Leon Trotsky in post-revolutionary Russia.
In every presidential election from 1994 till 2015, the winning and losing candidates promised to abolish the presidential system but did nothing about it after the elections. The biggest betrayer was Maithripala Sirisena who won the election in 2015 as a common opposition candidate and unprecedentedly defeating an incumbent president. Sirisena’s co-conspirator was Ranil Wickremesinghe even though the two men were mutually estranged as political bedfellows.
By the quirkiest of quirks, Ranil Wickremesinghe is now President, but rather than building alliances and support for reforming the presidency, Mr. Wickremesinghe is creating cabals among his own government MPs to advance his presidential candidacy. In normal times, such maneuverings could have been seen as Machiavellian brilliance. These are not normal times, and such machinations are hardly becoming of a man of Mr. Wickremesinghe’s age and the caretaker circumstances in which he was vaulted to power. There are two matters of concern here.
First, Mr. Wickremesinghe, in his current capacity as caretaker president, is squandering a rare and fortuitous opportunity to initiate and implement serious political reforms including the reform of the presidency. The somewhat ‘hung’ situation of the current parliament without a dominant party or alliance is an ideal opportunity for coalescing sufficient numbers of like minded MPs to support a positive reform agenda. The numbers (and members) are there in parliament for President Wickremesinghe to facilitate a two-third majority, constitutional-reform voting bloc if only he would jettison his usual machination habits and work with honesty and sincerity on a principled reform agenda.
The agenda can be limited to a few critical areas of reform: the presidency, the electoral system, provincial councils, and public service. Enough work has been done in each of these area for decades and there are enough people who could draft up the details of reform for the President and for parliament. If a referendum is needed it could be piggybacked on to a nationwide election – either local government, provincial council or parliamentary elections. Fundamentally, there should be no more presidential elections and the election of future Heads of State, after the current President, should not be directly by the people but through their representatives in parliament ,and potentially in the provincial councils.
There will have to be a sunset arrangement for President Wickremesinghe as part of such a reform agenda. If he were to play a crucial role, in good faith, in facilitating the reform process, there could be consensus among political parties to extend his time in office, but with reduced powers, under the new system of indirect election by the people’s representatives rather than directly by the people. An extended term in office for the caretaker president would also enable him to focus primarily on the economic crisis and to continue in his current role as the country’s economic ambassador and plenipotentiary. This is wishful thinking, but better than the baleful schemes that the President seems to be currently pursuing. The latter is the second matter of concern.
Ominous Ranil
There is an ominous side to Ranil Wickremesinghe. He has not been shy of exposing it after succeeding the runaway Gotabaya as caretaker president. At that time last year, Imran Khan was out of office in Pakistan and was leading countrywide agitations for a general election. He reportedly rejected the idea of emulating the aragalaya agitation that successfully brought down a Prime Minister and President in a matter of weeks and months. Perhaps, he made the right judgement call in the context of Pakistan, where confrontation with the military may have led to a nationwide bloodbath. Today, Imran Khan languishes in jail and is barred from contesting the upcoming general election.
In contrast, Ranil Wickremesinghe, who cannot ever lead a political protest, became the biggest beneficiary of Sri Lanka’s most consequential protest. He is now President and wants to hold no other election other than a presidential election as it is the only election that he (and his followers) can conceivably win. Rather than reforming the presidency, Mr. Wickremesinghe is acting to perpetuate it. Imran Khan rejected emulating the Sri Lankan aragalaya in Pakistan, but there is much in common between the political machinations of the Shehbaz Sharif government in Pakistan and the Wickremesinghe administration in Sri Lanka.
As part of his agitation for national elections, Imran Khan got the provincial governments led by his party (PTI) in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to dissolve their assemblies to force elections. But the Sharif government let the dissolved assemblies remain in limbo, ignoring the constitutional mandate for holding elections within 90 days of dissolution. The government rebuked the judiciary for ordering an election date, and made its own ruling that elections could not be held due to the prevailing economic crisis and security situation. Sounds familiar?
As soon as Imran Khan was illegitimately barred from contesting, it was time for dissolving parliament in Pakistan, economic crisis or not. Similarly in Sri Lanka, the treasury has no cash for conducting local elections, but it will find plenty of cash for a presidential election if and when Ranil Wickremesinghe decides to have one at the convenient time of his choosing. Should he be allowed to do so? And thereby not merely prolong but perpetuate a dysfunctional political system? Alternatively, could a reform project be launched, and the current caretaker presidency be brought to a desirable end? The country has options too.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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