Global warming blamed for three cyclones battering India in three years

By S Venkat Narayan,

Our Special Correspondent

NEW DELHI: Cyclone Tauktae is the third cyclone from the Arabian Sea to batter India’s west coast in as many consecutive years. Favourable conditions reigning in the Arabian Sea, such as ocean heat and high sea surface temperature due to global warming, are responsible, experts say.

Tauktae intensified from a very severe to an extremely severe cyclonic storm rapidly on Monday, taking weather experts and scientists by surprise. “Tauktae intensified very rapidly this morning. We did not state that it would intensify to an extremely severe cyclone in our forecast. But it did because of extremely favourable oceanic and atmospheric conditions,” said M Mohapatra, director general, India Meteorological Department (IMD).

While forecasting the trajectory of Tauktae at 2.20am on Monday, IMD said it would intensify into a very severe cyclonic storm and cross the Gujarat coast on May 18 (Tuesday). But, by 8.15 am, another IMD bulletin said Tauktae already intensified to an extremely severe cyclonic storm with a maximum wind speed of 180-190 kmph gusting to 210 kmph and that it would cross the Gujarat coast on Monday night.

Tauktae is in keeping with the trend of an increasing number of cyclones in the Arabian Sea. Time was when most of those affecting India were on the other side, in the Bay of Bengal. Scientists have no doubts as to why this is happening — warmer seas on account of the climate crisis.

“Rapid intensification of cyclones is a response to climate change and ocean warming, and cyclone forecast models have a hard time in picking them up. We need to incorporate this in forecast models and be prepared on the ground for future…,” said Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.

Tauktae also intensified very rapidly from a depression to a cyclone on Friday. “With Cyclone Tauktae, this will be the fourth consecutive year of a pre-monsoon cyclone over the Arabian Sea. This is also the third consecutive year when a cyclone has come very close to the west coast of India. Sea surface temperatures in Arabian Sea have increased rapidly during the past century and this has led to an increase in the frequency and intensity of cyclones in the Arabian Sea… global warming has presented us with new challenges… Improving the Indian Ocean Observing System and incorporating global warming signals in the weather models can help us tackle the challenges,” Koll added.

Still, some experts warned of this. “Conditions are extremely favourable for Tauktae’s rapid intensification. Ocean heat potential is above normal; sea surface temperatures are 1-2°C above normal… We should be prepared,” Sunitha Devi, who studies cyclones at IMD, said on Thursday when a low-pressure area formed over Arabian Sea.

“We are seeing very intense cyclones form over Arabian Sea, they also intensify rapidly… It happens because ocean heat content is higher and sea surface temperatures are also higher… Sometimes our models are able capture this but not always,” said M Rajeevan, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences.