Features
Gathering Storms Cloud the Horizon
Military, Political, Strategic and Economic Uncertainties Abound
by Kumar David
I will argue in this essay that the world has entered a period of great uncertainty following the long wave of expansion and relative prosperity after the end of WW2. This is in the intrinsic nature of capitalism – crisis, war and recession followed by boom; it has always been so though in every instance the specific trajectory has been different.
This time there are five distinctive features: the power and preponderance of the United States in the military domain, the never before seen division of the world into a Muslim sphere against Israel and the US joined-at –the-hip while Europe hops around like an embarrassed spectator, third the rise of China as a mighty economy (I will expand on this later), a war in Ukraine which according to available reports Russia is winning (NATO expansion to the borders of Russia can now be ruled out), and fifth, attempts at ethnic cleansing by the Israeli State (a war-crime and a startling repetition the holocaust that the Jews suffered at the hand of the Nazis).
I will spend a little time on US military and on the emergence of a united and angry Muslim world, a significant new phenomenon. US budgeted lay-out on military expenditure in 2023 was about $900 billion (China second at about $300 billion) and includes maintaining and training the world’s foremost air-force, eleven operational aircraft-carriers and their support fleets and paying for two more carriers under construction, upkeep of nearly 1,000 military bases on foreign soil, and developing stealth aircraft and high-mobility ultra-sonic missile (HMUSM) systems.
These are missiles that can change course in flight, manoeuvre, discharge multiple warheads and shoot down rockets and drones that threaten US ships and bases. Hezbollah and the Houthis have now learnt a trick. They discharge thousands of cheap rockets and drones that cost no more than a few hundred dollars apiece at American facilities compelling the US to retaliate with HMUSMs which cost about a million dollars each. The plan is to deplete the US budget. The Americans are scratching their heads what to do about this. Both the Americans and the Chinese are developing ‘Star-Wars’ capabilities, that is space and satellite based offensive capabilities. The world you may honestly declare is slowly (or not so slowly) going mad.
The specifics of how empires collapse depend on many uncertainties and imponderables. Who would have imagined that Alexander, the military genius who never lost a battle, would be forced to turn back when his exhausted troops refused to cross the Indus declaring that they had reached the end of the world, or that assassination on the Ides of March would botch Caesar’s ambition of conquering the “whole world”, or that in-fighting among his sons would stymie the Great Genghis?
Likewise the incandescence of the Muslim world, Russia’s conquest of eastern Ukraine and Netanyahu’s commitment to ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian people from all the lands of the Tora (Old Testament) will certainly scuttle US Imperialism within the lifetime of my younger readers. Year-2023 has been the most unusual year of the 21st Century if not the whole post-war period, and 2024-25 may turn out to be cataclysmic.
I refer next not only to political and military events but also to financial ones. A Washington-led group is seriously mulling the confiscation of $300 billion of Russian monies parked in Western financial assets, Treasury Bonds and in banks. The money is to be used as war reparations to compensate Ukraine. Legally however it is blatant theft.
I do not know how Moscow will retaliate but it is an invitation to military responses such as devastating attacks in eastern Ukraine, to confiscation of Western assets and investments in Russia and to disruption of the global oil and gas shipments. Russia could encourage Iran, the Hezbollah and the Houthis to play dirty in the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Aden.
Second guessing what may happen is pointless but one needs to be prepared for anything. On an individual note keeping personal savings in US dollars, dollarized asset classes or relying on SWIFT and similar dollar-oriented transactions classes should be minimised. China has developed Yuan led international transfer mechanisms that may be safer to use whenever possible.
2024 and beyond
To return to the angry radicalisation of the Muslim world, now unfolding events would have been thought incredible a few months ago. Turkey’s Erdogan has all but declared war on Israel; it needs to be confirmed but there are reports that Ankara has quit NATO, and Western capitals are alarmed by as yet unconfirmed and unreliable reports that Saudi Arabia has “declared war” on Israel. Putin was welcomed on the tarmac at Riyadh by the aged monarch King Salman himself (and Crown Prince MBS) and his visit was accompanied by festivities suitable for a monarch. The stable capitalist post-war world order has gone topsy-turvy.
News reports (not all equally reliable) over the New Year weekend assert that:
Wave upon wave of Palestinian anger will not abate until a homeland is established.
Turkey has quit NATO (??)
Russia and Turkey have deployed troops on the Syrian border within easy reach of Israel
Iran has sent war ships into the Red Se is support of Houthi Rebels (?)
Russia provides missiles for Yemen to attack a US base near or in Israel
Israel’s Supreme Court (split 8-7 decision) has barred Netanyahu from overruling its decisions
Massive retaliatory Russian missile strikes across Ukraine
Russian retaliatory measures such as taking over US financial assets and investments if the latter goes ahead with its illegal threat to confiscate $300 billion of Russian assets in American banks “to compensate Ukraine”.
Immature populisms and hare-brained policies are gaining ground in some developing countries, for example Chile and Argentina
And the list goes on and on; it’s not a pretty picture; the future is going to be grim and very ugly. The Middle East and Ukraine are engulfed in war; will it spread?
China
China is gaining. The Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) is making headway in investment, transport and economic growth in Central Asia (Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Mongolia). The role of the state, or to be precise the hegemony of the Communist Party, remains unchallenged as Jack Ma and a few upstart billionaires learnt to their cost.
At the small-enterprise level business is bustling – visit Shenzhen, Shanghai, Wuhan, Guangzhou and Hong Kong if you want to see it on the ground. Liberals are right when they bemoan the absence of liberal political democracy in China, but the death of entrepreneurial efficiency that the free-market underscores is not visible at the small-enterprise level. Twenty-five years ago I developed and published the thesis that China is neither socialist nor capitalist, that the oxymoron “socialist market economy” was a valid concept, that in the long run the evolution of global power will decide the fate of China and humanity; that’s unquestionable.
President Xi Jin Ping has recently commenced an anti-corruption drive and launched measures to supervise rampant excesses in social media. The former enjoys broad support among the people but there seems to be mixed reaction to the latter – fears of big-brother peering over one’s shoulder. The importance of the Party if not the State in China’s giant transformation is a topic of endless comment. Pulling six to eight hundred thousand people out of poverty within a few decades is an achievement unparalleled in all of world history. How can one be anything but flabbergasted?
The state has an important role to play in pushing forward economic growth in the third-world and in supervising the economy of capitalist nations. Its role in an oxymoronic “socialist market economy” is an exercise still in progress. There is a lesson here for midget Sri Lanka too. A Planning Commission, as a continuing entity where the best, the brightest and the most flexible minds play a role is needed. There are some useful lessons to learn from Nehru’s India.
The JVP-NPP, in my view still remains the best bet for Sri Lanka in dealing with some of these issues. True it has fallen short of promising free and fair democratic elections so as to erase the blot on its past. It has failed even more woefully in promising anything credible such as devolution of power, a plan for the Eastern Province and its Muslims, endorsement of the 13th Amendment and return to their owners of lands occupied and trashed by the military. But the JVP-NPP still remains the best bet. Sajith’s party is the UNP in other colours and Sajith hiself lacks stature as a national figure.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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