Fragile chances of recovery from current economic crisis

By Chandra Amerasekare

For most Sri Lankan expatriates concerned about the plight of their kith and kin struggling to survive in Sri Lanka, it was heartening to see the peaceful Aragalaya unfolding at the Galle Face Green against the corrupt and extremely inefficient government of Gotabaya Rajapaksa responsible for dragging the country into bankruptcy. A cross-section of the population lent their support to the demonstrators, for they had a common grievance and wanted either to force the government to change course or to make way for another government.

The protesters had neither political affiliations or a leader nor a planned course of action. They had no idea of the constitutional limitations to a change of government within the next two years. They were unarmed and peaceful. Economic difficulties and uncertainty about their future propelled them to the streets to voice their concern. It was easy for people looking for pleasure or free food or for opportunities to further their political agendas, to enter GotaGo Gama and become part of the crowd. Nobody knew from where the money flowed to finance the ad-hoc activities in GotaGoGama starting from spontaneous cultural shows to a free restaurant continuously supplying good food in the context of a national scarcity of food. However, the initial phase of the Aragalaya (before May 9^th) though without a decisive plan or goal, won the hearts of Sri Lankans and was successful in achieving three significant changes in the country.

The first phase of the Aragalaya forced Mahinda Rajapaksha and his cabinet to resign. Secondly, Aragalaya awakened the voters to the reality and effectiveness of peoples’ sovereignty, to the fact that they have the power to elect the MPs but need to be careful in selecting their representatives and watch how they perform once elected. The other achievement was demonstrating the value of thinking as Sri Lankans, and not as Sinhalese, Tamils, or Muslims. No social reformer or social/political leader has been able to do this so effectively.

After May 9, the Aragalaya became ugly, destructive, and hate-driven. Rajapaksha supporters attacked the peaceful protesters and it was seen that the peaceful protesters were the victims and did not retaliate violently. But by this time other elements, some with political agendas backed by political parties and numerous leaders claiming ownership of the Aragalaya plus others with unholy personal agendas had infiltrated into the Aragalaya and they took over the task of retaliating against the SLPP for the May 9^th attack. These elements went on a rampage of destruction creating a fear psychic and spreading hatred.

Burning private residences cannot be condoned in a decent society. Surprisingly, not a single expression of disapproval could be seen in Sri Lanka against the murder of a legislator and burning down houses of politicians that sheltered their innocent children and women. The reason for this may have been the fear psychic and fear of retaliation by violent elements of the Aragalaya. Sri Lankan culture is certainly not this. Even today one could see the accommodating, tolerant and hospitable nature of Sri Lankans in rural areas. The second stage of the Aragalaya destroyed that image of Sri Lanka and the image of the peaceful Aragalaya of the youth. These youths who were genuine protesters need to come forward and join democratic forces to change politics in Sri Lanka.

The demonised elements that took control of the Aragalaya had no respect for life and property, the rule of law, the forces and the police trying hard to maintain law and order, or even the constitution of the country. They pronounced that what they say is the constitution. There are indeed corrupt elements in the Police. But it is to the police that every Sri Lankan runs for help when in need of protection or to settle disputes. The tri forces always came to the rescue of civilians during war and natural disasters. The abusive manner in which some protesters reacted to them was not only appalling but extremely ungrateful. The violent demonstrators would have made Sri Lanka a stateless country had the police and the forces failed to hold them back after the nerve centres of administration were captured and plundered by them. Had that happened, it would have taken months to form a government for the various factions would have fought for leadership and power. Even after forming a government, it would have taken a long time to be recognised internationally as a legitimate state, and by that time a significant segment of the population would have succumbed to starvation and disease.

By no stretch of imagination can anyone say these Aragalaya members (second phase) had any concern for the struggling people. If they had, they would not have tried to dismantle the government that was trying to distribute the essential items to give relief to the people. The social and political unrest they created pushed back the assistance the country could have received in August to alleviate the people’s misery.

When IMF discussions were pushed back due to the social unrest, bilateral donors ready to open their aid windows to help Sri Lanka hesitated, and that prolonged the agony of the people. Added to this, the deceit of a few who took advantage of the scarcities to find new avenues of income by hoarding oil and gas disillusioned many including those who stretched a helping hand.

Now that a beginning has been made to stabilise the country socially and politically, there is law and order and there is a skeleton of a government. All political parties have a responsibility to work together to rescue the country. If this happens and an all-party government is formed, it will give a more democratic face to the government and make social and political stability sustainable until the country can afford an election as early as possible. Most importantly this will give a signal to the international community, both multilateral and bilateral donors that there is no power struggle and the country is serious about recovering the economy.

Political parties and society need to recognise the political and economic realities prevailing at this moment. Then only the country can move forward. We need to realise that everything has to happen according to the constitution to avoid anarchy and complete breakdown. There is no constitutional provision to dissolve parliament for the next two years. Any government formed within the present parliament needs to have a working majority in parliament. It is the SLPP that has a majority. The current President has the support of 134 members. The present economic situation demands immediate action and the prospects of making it better are dim and uncertain for at least another six months. Further struggles will push recovery beyond the horizon. Sri Lanka cannot come out of this situation without foreign assistance. To get foreign assistance a precondition is political and social stability and the willingness of the country to work to revive the economy.

Given these preconditions and the country’s inability to stand on its own feet at this moment, the best course of action is to go along with the present government whether we like it or not, and work together to retrieve a bleeding economy and save the lives of people without further delay. The opposition parties owe it to the people who elected them to help the government in this effort to recover and maintain social and political stability to facilitate the recovery. If they do that they will be able to share the credit for helping the people to emerge from the current disaster. Personal ambitions are high. If opposition parties keep looking for prospects of grabbing power at the expense of making people suffer, leaders stick to their guns and refuse to join the government laying down impossible conditions, they can end up as losers in the next election. People certainly will not consider them as politicians who love the country and the people.

In this effort to rebuild the economy, Government needs to give due place to youths who initiated the peaceful Aragalaya and others who have ingenuity and leadership. The maiden speech made by a young Sri Lankan woman in the Victorian parliament revealing her carrier prior to entering parliament as a voluntary social worker to uplift the lives of many and how she learnt from experienced people in her life, gives an idea about how youth could become leaders. The Government should look for youths like that and give them space in the legislature and other decision-making centers.

System change

The general opinion now in Sri Lanka is that there should be a system change to usher in an era of corruption-free government and people-friendly development. What is this system change? In simple language, a system means the way a human being does something to fulfill a need or get something done. In a parliamentary democracy what systems are used in governance? The constitution provides the framework for all the systems of governance and for protecting the individual and society. It is the fountain of all laws, lays down the individual rights and freedoms, the limitations to the exercise of such freedoms and rights, and the sub-systems necessary to govern the country. As such we have the following systems in governance:

· The legislature to make laws in keeping with the constitution and decide on policies and control government expenditure and revenue as well as borrowings.

· The executive, including the presidency and the Cabinet, answerable to parliament for implementing policy.

· The judiciary, responsible for implementing the laws according to the constitution.

· The Public service and the Judicial service responsible for implementing government policy, and managing the administration.

One needs to first identify the defects and loopholes in the existing systems that allow corruption, inefficiency, waste, and indifference to people’s welfare, to bring about the changes necessary to remove them. For example, consider the constitution that provides the framework for all the other systems. Any government with a two-thirds majority could change the constitution to further its political agenda to the detriment of the welfare of the people. Such changes have increased the powers of the president excessively and compromised the independence of the Public, Judicial, and Police services Commissions and the Elections Commission. The result was the politicisation of these Commissions and the public service leading to inefficiency and corruption due to political patronage replacing meritocracy in recruitment, promotion and postings in these services.

If one considers the Legislature, more than sixty percent of the members do not play a role in legislative or overseeing functions. Most MPs attend parliament to meet the minimum requirement of attendance and give their vote to support the party when a vote is taken. They earn a special fee for attendance when voters have sent them there for that purpose. There are no minimum educational or legal requirements in the election law for a candidate to contest parliamentary elections. The same law has no provisions to prevent MPs from crossing over seeking greener pastures. The conduct of most MPs during parliamentary sessions exceeds the limits of decency. The debate is mostly motivated to damage the image of opponents for electoral gain. Accusations are made against opponents based on social media without presenting evidence. The code of conduct for MPs is toothless to prevent such actions.

There is no provision in the existing structure of the overseeing committees in parliament for outside social groups and interest groups to contribute to policy making or overseeing policy implementation. The cost of maintaining an MP and a Minister is a huge burden to the taxpayer. Extravagant remunerations and perks, expenditures on office facilities, transport as well as escorts given to Ministers and MPs are unsustainable in a debt-dependent poor country.

Similarly, the existing defects of the other systems mentioned above are known to the public. Constitutional changes and new laws, regulations, changes in procedures and record keeping, as well as improving the use of modern day technology in administration are required for a system change.

In conclusion, the most important factor necessary for a system change is the commitment of the people to understand the current realities and change their perspective and attitude. They must adhere to basic values and adopt a lifestyle that is within their means. More importantly, they must exercise their vote intelligently to appoint the most suitable candidate to parliament and subsidiary political assemblies. The entire society has the responsibility to create a social environment where ethics such as honesty, fairness, tolerance, respecting diversity, respecting women and elders are the norms.

The writer is a retired SLAS officer who has worked in the Ministries of planning and Finance for over two and a half decades. She can be contacted at amerasekare@gmail.com