Foil bid to ‘steal’ US election

Wednesday 26th August, 2020

Washington heaved a sigh of relief when Sri Lanka successfully conducted a general election amidst the Covid-19 pandemic about three weeks ago. It also exhorts governments here to uphold democratic values, hold free and fair elections and respect people’s verdicts. America’s concern about Sri Lanka’s democracy is to be appreciated, and, now it is up to Colombo to reciprocate by urging Washington to ensure a free and fair presidential contest in the US, in November 2020, for no less a person than US President Donald Trump has complained of a sinister attempt to ‘steal’ the election. “They’re using Covid to defraud the American people,” he said at the Republican Convention in North Carolina, on 24 August.

President Trump maintains that mail-in ballots could lead to a vote fraud. He is confident of his victory although he is lagging behind his Democratic rival, Joe Biden, in opinion polls. (However, he won the presidency despite losing the popular vote in 2016.) “The only way they [Democrats] can take this election away from us is if this is a rigged election,” Trump said at the convention, declaring, “We’re going to win!” There has been a huge increase in mail-in votes owing to Covid-19. Commissioner of the Federal Election Commission Ellen Weintraub has pooh-poohed Trump’s claim, saying, “There is no basis for the conspiracy theory that voting by mail causes fraud.” But Trump is convinced otherwise.

Trump’s oft-repeated claim of attempts to steal the November election has given rise to speculation that he might reject polls results in case of his defeat and try to stay put. (This is what the US-led international community and their Sri Lankan allies feared the then incumbent Mahinda Rajapaksa would do in 2015, when he faced a presidential election to secure a third term, albeit in vain. But he conceded the race gracefully.)

US democratic system is certainly much stronger than Trump, and he does not look equal to the task of crashing it single-handedly, but any attempt to do so will have a devastating impact on the US democracy. One may recall that about 145 years ago, the US experienced a situation similar to what is being anticipated. The closely-contested 1876 presidential election led to chaos following the submission of conflicting electoral certificates by three States. That sparked a political battle in the Congress, which was unable to decide which certificates should be accepted. The situation became chaotic as main candidates, Rutherford B. Hayes (Republican) and Samuel J. Tilden (Democratic), who was leading in popular votes, claimed to have won the election. The Congress set up an ad hoc Election Commission to settle the dispute. Luckily, the two parties reached a compromise and Hayes became the President. A new law was made the following year to help deal with such situations in the future, but legal experts have found some serious deficiencies therein. There’s the rub.

The US had another disputed presidential election outcome in 2000. Democratic Candidate Al Gore lost amidst a controversy over ‘hanging chads’ and ‘pregnant chads’ in Florida, where the Governor was Republican Candidate George W. Bush’s brother. Following weeks of legal and political battles, Al Gore conceded the election, and Bush became the President. A crisis was thus averted.

Unless Trump is defeated decisively with huge margins in both popular and electoral votes, in November, he is not likely to concede the race easily, or at all. It is highly unlikely that he will poll more popular votes than Biden, but nobody knows what is in store as regards the Electoral College. Democratic presidential candidate Hilary Clinton beat Trump in popular votes, in 2016, although she failed to win the presidency. She obtained 2.1% more popular votes than Trump. She has been ranked third among the candidates who swamped their rivals in popular votes but failed to make it to the White House, the first and the second being Andrew Jackson (10%) in 1824, and Tilden (3%) in 1876, respectively.

Among those puzzled by the US Electoral College (EC) mechanism was the genius who ushered in the Nuclear Age. Albert Einstein famously said he could not understand the EC. So much for the way the US Presidents are elected.

All democratic nations are duty bound to rally behind the US, which is on a global crusade to protect democracy; they must help prevent what the US President fears—an election fraud—from coming to pass.