Features
Find new fuel supplies to avoid fueling new protests in August
byRajan Philips
President Ranil Wickremesinghe might be feeling satisfied over his two recent accomplishments which have eluded him ever since he became UNP leader after 1994. First, a seemingly secure majority in parliament and, second, an intriguingly evolving and mutually supportive relationship with the military. At the same time, Mr. Wickremesinghe finds himself in circumstances that none of his predecessors have ever encountered. The current domestic circumstances of economic hardships could undermine his power and authority and even force him out of office, the same way they forced Gotabaya Rajapaksa out of office.
There are already calls for another wave of protest and another monthly culmination and resignation on August 9! Still haunting the domestic scene are the Rajapaksas. Apparently, they are here, there, everywhere and the one who flew to Singapore is now planning a return flight. Rightly or wrongly, Ranil Wickremesinghe, grandson of Cyril Wickremesinghe and DR Wijewardena (there is no higher bourgeois rung in the Sinhalese social ladder), is now widely viewed as a Rajapaksa clone, and that adds to a rather long list of presidential liabilities. That is the domestic scene.
The external scene is worse both for the President and more so for the country. For all the powers he has under Sri Lanka’s constitution, the President is utterly powerless to get anything done outside the country. It is over two months since Ranil Wickremesinghe became Prime Minister with inflated expectations that he is the man of the moment, who would draw on his goodwill capital in the west and pull Sri Lanka out of its current mess. But nothing moved or got pulled out. Only the people’s frustrations and their queue lengths grew.
The story is the same more than two weeks after Mr. Wickremesinghe got a quick job promotion. A double promotion in fact, in as many months. The reality is that nothing could have been changed so quickly, and by anyone for that matter. The mistake was in the expectations that were bandied to justify Mr. Wickremesinghe’s double promotion. In fairness, he made biweekly statements in parliament on the depth of Sri Lanka’s crises, but he never provided any details on how he was going to address the country’s manifold economic problems. By details I do not mean technical details, which no one expects the President to do – otherwise, we would be back to Cabraal-square. But details of organization and delegation.
Even after two months, the President has still not shared with the country if he has assembled any team or teams of experts to address the country’s economic problems, the most pressing among them now are all external. The fact is that he has not assembled any, and it is all a one-man band whatever music that might be playing. The new reality is also that global economic conditions have gotten a whole lot worse in the two months since RW became Prime Minister.
In its recent update the IMF has characterized the world economic outlook as “Gloomy and More Uncertain.” The IMF notes that rising inflation in western economies, China’s slowdown and spillovers from the war in Ukraine are sudden “shocks” that the have hit the world economy when it was already weakened by the pandemic. As “tighter global financial conditions … induce debt distress in emerging market and developing economies,” the already debt-stressed and forex-starved Sri Lanka will have to compete with other developing countries for debt relief and financial assistance.
In what would appear to be a new direction from the IMF, Krishna Srinivasan, director of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, has told Reuters that Sri Lanka should directly engage with China and other creditors to restructure the respective bilateral debts independent of its negotiations with the IMF. China is a big creditor and is not easily amenable to restructuring its debt, because it deals bilaterally with borrowing countries and giving concessions to one country (Sri Lanka) will open the door for other debtors to start lining up. China is also having its economic problems and, unlike India, has not been particularly generous to extend a helping hand to Sri Lanka when it direly needs help.
Even two years ago, Sri Lanka was a “donor darling” in global economy according to Anne Krueger, a former World Bank and IMF economist. She attributes this to the island’s “relatively high standard of living, good social services, and robust economic growth.” It is now “a lesson to other governments” on how quickly and tragically things can go downhill due to ignorant decision making and stubborn refusal to change course even after the unfolding disaster becomes all too evident. How will decision making be different in the new (and old) Wickremesinghe Administration?
There is nothing new about President Wickremesinghe and he has the same cabinet of ministers (minus GL Peiris) who served under Gotabaya Rajapaksa and resigned multiple times to assuage the aragalaya protesters. Can the President and his ministers act any differently now – from what they have been known for, all their political life? The initial signs are not very promising, but it is still early to condemn them as failures.
At the same time, one cannot help thinking that the Wickremesinghe Administration has so far taken every step backward politically and no step forward economically. And this will have, and is already having, implications not only internally but also internationally. Whether the decision making processes and responsibilities in the new Administration could change for the better in the days ahead depends on the political relationship between Ranil Wickremesinghe and the SLPP, which gave Mr. Wickremesinghe a solid base to score a convincing victory in parliament to become President. It is fair to say that Ranil and the SLPP have entered into a marriage of convenience, but inconveniently so.
Inconvenient Marriage
President Jayewardene was known to have mused frequently that his penchant for a presidential system was duly compromised by his desire to marry the presidential system and the parliamentary system for consummation in Sri Lanka. I am of course paraphrasing ultra vires! But marriage of a different kind is now in place between President Wickremesinghe and the SLPP in parliament. They both need it for their convenience – for Ranil to become President and for SLPP MPs to ward off aragalaya threats to their political survival. But where do the country’s economic imperatives find a place in this marriage? So far, there is no sign of the Ranil-SLPP arrangement in parliament giving priority to the economic question.
The first outcome of the marriage has been the clampdown on aragalaya protesters, forcibly evicting them from protest sites after the protesters had announced that they were leaving the sites voluntarily anyway. The eviction took place soon after Mr. Wickremesinghe was sworn in as President in the new and old parliamentary premises, apparently as a symbolic act to emphasize the supremacy of parliament. The eviction drew significantly negative international attention, but that did not stop the Administration from targeting and arresting individual protesters.
To cap it all, parliament by a comfortable majority endorsed the Emergency Rule imposed by Mr. Wickremesinghe while he was still Acting President, or simply acting up in his new role as president. From what the numbers say, not all of the 134 MPs who voted for Ranil Wickremesinghe to be President were SLPP MPs. There were secret-ballot defections from all the parties in parliament including the SJB and the TNA despite their official party-line support for Dullas Alahapperuma. The latter was a lacklustre candidate who was cut to size by the Rajapaksas for having dared to challenge Mahinda Rajapaksa for premiership earlier.
Only the three JVP MPs voted without defecting but the fact that Anura Kumara Dissanayake could not get any other MP to vote for him speaks to the JVP’s lost opportunity to strengthen its presence in parliament with all the protest upheavals occurring outside parliament. A majority of the Tamil, Muslim and Indian Tamil MPs reportedly voted for Alahapperuma, while a significant minority of them including CV Wigneswaran voted for Wickremesinghe. It was a classic split-vote by Tamil MPs, with TNA deciding to go against Ranil Wickremesinghe and Wigneswaran supporting his one time bête noire presumably to spite the TNA.
The change in the vote distribution from the vote to elect the president (134-82-3) to the vote on the Emergency resolution (120-63 with 41 abstentions) is also revealing. As many as 41 MPs did not bother to attend parliament and vote on the Emergency resolution. And Wimal Weerawansa was a surprise vote supporting Emergency Rule after voting against Ranil Wickremesinghe earlier. It is not clear how his other nine ‘comrades’ in the group of ten voted on the Emergency. Many were absent.
The SJB, the TNA and the JVP voted against the Emergency resolution, along with the emerging SLPP rump that includes Dullas Alahapperuma and, of all people, GL Pieris who seems to be suddenly remembering that he was once a law professor and that he should be vigorously opposing any emergency rule imposed by the executive! Even so opposition to emergency garnered 19 votes fewer than the 82 votes polled by Allahapperuma.
Sajith Premadasa’s decision to withdraw from the contest for presidency and support Dullas Allahapperuma was as predictable as it has become controversial among SJB MPs in parliament. Sarath Fonseka was not at all pleased that he was not given a chance to throw in his name as a candidate. He is now breathing fire and calling for another protest wave on August 9. Mr. Fonseka’s problem seems to be that when he starts taking himself too seriously, everyone stops taking him seriously. Surprisingly, however, no one has defected from the SJB to join the new Ranil-SLPP government after Harin Fernando and Manusha Nanayakkara.
It might change now that parliament has been prorogued from July 28 to August 3. A new session of parliament will begin with the President presenting his first Policy Statement on the state of the country and what he is proposing to do about it. The President will use his speech to set the tone for his government, but whether it would be enough to facilitate a more representative cabinet, let alone address the pressing problems faced by the people, remains to be seen.
Even as he prorogued parliament, President Wickremesinghe has acknowledged that his government’s main priorities are to fix the country’s ailing economy and end the severe fuel shortage that has exacerbated after the last shipment under the Indian credit line arrived in June. This is the first time, as reported by the Press Trust of India, Mr. Wickremesinghe has publicly acknowledged the severity of the fuel crisis. It was the fuel shortage and its poor distribution that proved to be the last straw that broke the Rajapaksa presidency on July 9.
A new rationing system for fuel distribution has since been introduced, but there are no new shipments breaking through Sri Lanka’s gloomy horizons. A continuing fuel shortage will fuel a new protest wave and its anticipated culmination on August 9. It is for the President to forestall protests by finding timely fuel supplies and avoid the alternative of clamping down on protesters after failing to satisfy the people’s basic needs.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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