External intervention and Myanmar’s mounting human costs

Going by the Myanmar military’s track record, it would be futile on the part of observers to expect the junta to easily relent in its bloody efforts at quelling the popular uprising. It would not relax its whip hand until the last protester is cowed into submission and all coercive means would be used to achieve this. For example, in the 1988 pro-democracy protests more than 3000 persons had died.

It ought to be abundantly clear that a major humanitarian crisis is shaping up in crisis-hit Myanmar. The latter’s anti-junta, pro-democracy protesters are doing well to stand up to the country’s repressive military but the human costs of this confrontation could prove to be prohibitively high.

For instance, more than 70 persons have died so far in the military crackdown on the popular uprising which explosively emerged on February 1 with the ousting of Myanmar’s civilian rulers by the Generals. Bloodshed is what the country would have as long as the junta is allowed to have a free hand.

Ideally, Myanmar should be allowed ‘to sort out its affairs’ by itself. But if the country’s military persists in its repressive course more and more civilians would be killed with impunity and increasing social and economic dislocation would be Myanmar’s lot. The most important posers that arise from this tragedy for the world’s ‘civilized sections’ are: Could they afford to ‘look the other way’ in the face of the blood-letting and for how long?

Going by the Myanmar military’s track record, it would be futile on the part of observers to expect the junta to easily relent in its bloody efforts at quelling the popular uprising. It would not relax its whip hand until the last protester is cowed into submission and all coercive means would be used to achieve this. For example, in the 1988 pro-democracy protests more than 3000 persons had died. The tragedy of those times was compounded by the fact that Myanmar was left to its devices. Would history repeat? It sure would as long as the military’s diktat goes unchallenged by effective, countervailing democratic forces.

Right now, it is the saving of lives that matters most. The UN should figure prominently on this score. It would need to explore every possibility of rendering humanitarian assistance to Myanmar’s civilian public. This is a paramount need in consideration of the strong possibility of the public’s material ordeals intensifying several fold as time goes by. Even some arm twisting of the junta by the international community would prove legitimate on this question since the well being of the people cannot be compromised.

However, piloting Myanmar towards peace and stability would prove an uphill challenge. Moreover, it is a political solution that is needed crucially since it is only the latter that could ensure the country’s long term political, economic and social stability.

Quite ironically, the UN system would not prove very effective on this score since such questions would need to be addressed by the UN Security Council(UNSC) and the latter body is bound to be almost hopelessly divided on Myanmar. That is, while the West is likely to call for a political solution and a return to civilian rule in the country, China and Russia would think otherwise. Being essentially authoritarian in character, China and Russia could be expected to side strongly with the Myanmarese junta and call for a solution that would uphold the military’s main interests. Given this backdrop, the road to a just solution through the UN system would prove to be long-drawn and pockmarked with pitfalls.

However, military intervention of any kind on the part of the big powers of the West on behalf of the pro-democracy forces in Myanmar should be unthinkable even for the powers concerned, considering the disastrous negative consequences that could flow from this course of action. Once again, the suffering of civilians would prove the factor of paramount importance.

If external military intervention happens to materialize, we would be confronted with yet another humanly costly no-win, prolonged civil war in Myanmar as well. A Syria-type quagmire could be expected to heart-rendingly unfold, although there are striking differences between Myanmar and Syria.

In all likelihood, while the pro-democracy forces in Myanmar would be backed by the US and its allies, militarily and morally, in a future case of external intervention, the junta would be staunchly supported by China and Russia in every conceivable way. Given the formidable strengths of the antagonists, efforts at a military solution would result in prolonged blood-letting. As is usual in all such situations, civilians would suffer interminably.

As this is being written, Syria is no closer to peace than it was 10 years ago. There are multiple interventionist powers in Syria, with the US-led alliance and the Russian-backed Syrian regime proving the pivotal antagonists. There are formidable regional powers, such as Iran and Turkey, which have a considerable interest in Syrian developments, who reportedly back rival political and military formations in Syria. While the UN has figured now and then in efforts at working out a political solution in Syria, these exercises have proved futile.

However, the human costs of war in Syria speak for themselves. More than half of Syria’s pre-war population of 22 million are said to have fled their homes. The internally displaced number 6.7 million, many of them in camps, while another 5.6 million have reported as refugees abroad. By December 2020, the Syrian dead were said to number 387,118. Among the latter 116,911 are believed to be civilians. One million Syrian refugee children are said to have been born in exile. These are just a few of Syria’s ‘bleeding statistics’.

It could be argued that the conflict in Myanmar is a very far cry from the humanitarian crisis in Syria, which has a multiplicity of internal and external dimensions to it that are not found in Myanmar. True no doubt, but 10 or more years ago who would have imagined that seemingly stable Syria would implode into the horrendously disintegrating civil war situation that it is in today? This is what a mismanaged internal conflict does to a country. We in Sri Lanka know this best.

The pro-peace sections of the international community could only wish that Myanmar would not go the way of Syria. They need to act fast to help evolve a just political solution in Myanmar. The forces of democracy need to rally round Myanmar.