Election talk in the air

Election talk has once more entered the political space with news reports last week speculating, rightly or wrongly we do not know, of various politicians talking to each other about forging alliances. The ruling Sri Lanka Podu Jana Pakshaya (SLPP) a couple of weeks ago held what appeared from television images to be a well attended political rally at Anuradhapura. Both the president and prime minister made campaign-style speeches there, triggering a belief that some kind of election is not far away. While presidential and parliamentary elections are way down the road, local or provincial elections are a possibility, the former much more probable than the latter which requires an amendment to the law. The SLPP showed the country it was the coming colour when it finished with 40 percent of the votes at the local elections of February 2018 against 29% for Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe’s United National Front and 12% for President Sirisena’s United People’s Freedom Alliance. Terms of the local bodies then elected are over and another election is due. Of course various permutations and combinations have taken place since the last election and the battle lines will not be same as in 2018.

A reader’s letter we publish today has expressed a fear that despite the government’s present unpopularity in the country over the grave hardship confronting the people on numerous issues ranging from the dizzy cost of living, spiraling inflation, depreciating rupee, foreign exchange crunch, lack of essentials, fears of power cuts, fuel shortages and many more, the ruling party retains some ability to enthuse its supporters. That was what the television pictures showed, some more so than others depending on the political bent of the station. We are all aware that politicians of all complexions are notorious for transporting supporters to rallies of all kinds. They offer inducements ranging from arrack to buriyani, sarees, tee-shirts and caps in party colours, transport and much more. Cheques are invariably cashed for patronage bestowed, including jobs for the boys and girls. MPs and local councilors are required to round-up cheer squads by the busload. So analysts tend to avoid equating crowds with votes.

We don’t know when the draft of the promised new constitution, already past the previously stated deadline, will be published. It is still in the hands of the president’s expert committee that has been doing its work mostly behind closed doors. This is different from what happened in 1972 when Parliament was made into a Constituent Assembly with all proceedings in public. President J.R. Jayewardene preferred a Parliamentary Select Committee approach. Whatever the new draft offers, we can be certain that it will avoid the need for a referendum which is the last thing any incumbent government anywhere would want. Constitutional experts have made clear that this can be easily done and that will certainly be the way the government will go. Whatever the question at any referendum, the answer will only say whether the voters are for or against the government. That is a risk nobody in power anywhere would ever take.

Both Presidents Chandrika Kumaratunga and Maithripala Sirisena reneged on solemn promises that they will abolish the executive presidency that had then become a hate object. We’re now seeing various contenders including Messrs. Sajith Premadasa, Patali Champika Ranawaka and even the JVP’s Anura Kumara Dissanayake eyeing the throne, the last perhaps with a longer term strategy of abolishing the office or its powers. Though Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, after abolishing the two-term limit on the presidency unsuccessfully sought a third term, he obviously cannot offer himself again. The family choice will have to be either the now-limping incumbent who says he’s got more time, Basil (will the new constitution permit the foreign citizen clause to remain or will he renounce like his brother?) or Namal who’s being groomed but for when is not clear. The incumbents will not want to abolish the executive presidency or remove its powers – as done under 19A and restored by 20A – through the new constitution. They are not under any pressure to do so.

Local elections seem to remain the government’s best option to demonstrate they are not as hated as some people think. No doubt it’s a calculated risk but present signals are that the government is willing to gamble. Basil Rajapaksa who masterminded the SLPP campaign the last time round, paving the way for the presidential election victory and a two third majority at the parliamentary election that followed, has already signaled which way the wind is blowing. His weda lakshayak (one hundred thousand projects) and rural roads policies are clearly intended to enthuse and enrich SLPP political activists. Local bodies are elected by a mix of first-past-the-post and proportional representation and this system seems to favour the SLPP as it did in 2018. With a splintered opposition, like what now exists, and next to no prospects of a common front approach against the rulers such as that which toppled Mahinda Rajapaksa in 2015 anywhere in sight, SLPP strategists seem to calculate local elections now may be the way to go. This can happen in the next few months before the economy further worsens. So that may well be how the papadam will crumble.