Duminda, Ranil and Basil

Three important happenings last week further bedeviled the country’s already vapid governance and political mess. First there was UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe’s return to Parliament nearly a year after the last election to take its single National List seat after months of foot-dragging, waffling and, indeed, prevarication. Then there was dual citizen Basil Rajapaksa’s return home (or second home?) after an absence of over a month in the USA on “personal business.” Finally there was President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s stunning Poson pardon of ex-MP Duminda Silva serving a life-term in prison following conviction for the murder of also ex-MP Bharatha Lakshman Premachandra.

There is no escaping the reality that the country is in one helluva mess. After an initial success several months ago in controlling the spread of the Covid pandemic, the vaccination process is not where it should be. Political interference in organizing preferential treatment for friends, relations and supporters created both rage and unhappiness widely displayed on television screens. A large number of vulnerable persons who received a first shot of AstraZenecca vaccine have been left high and dry not knowing when the second jab would be possible. A glimmer of light appeared at the end of the tunnel last week with reports of a delivery of a new stock from the Serum Institute of India in the short term. But there was no word about how it would be distributed.

As of now, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa appears to be ironclad in not wavering on his decision on banning inorganic fertilizer imports. This despite an avalanche of scientific opinion widely publicized. At least one major television channel is campaigning vigorously against the decision with daily bulletins of angry farmer protests countrywide. Claims that there are sufficient fertilizer stocks for the next season have been roundly debunked by protesters. If true, the government is hopeless impotent to root out hoarded stocks of profiteering hoarders. A segment of the electorate that strongly supported the president and the SLPP at recent elections have clearly been alienated. All this on top of the pandemic challenges, periodic lock downs and resultant bedlam, rightly or wrongly fathered on the government, is not helping the rulers who are at a zenith of unpopularity less than a year after their election by a popular mandate.

We have in a previous comment in this space speculated on the possibility of Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe awaiting a nekatha to return to Parliament and resume a presence in the legislature that continued for 43 years until interrupted by his and his party’s stunning defeat last year. The single National List seat the UNP could salvage for itself after being reduced to zero was left unclaimed for about a year. First Wickremesinghe said he will not take the seat. Perhaps he remembered his party’s declaration that it will not admit defeated candidates to the legislature through the back door. Then other names were thrown up as possibilities for the vacancy. Eventually the people were told that Wickremesinghe was under pressure to accept the vacancy and was the unanimous choice of the UNP’s working committee.

Now Ranil is back in the House occupying an opposition frontbench seat; and, clad in his immaculate western suit, has made his first speech in Sinhala, generally not the language of his choice when he has to perform at his best. Before he took his oath last week, the four times prime minister and longtime opposition leader exposed himself to a no-holds-barred television interview where, even the ranks of Tuscany must admit, he acquitted himself reasonably well facing a volley of googlies bowled at him. Spurning rhetoric and wild swings at real and perceived enemies, he kept his cool and emerged unscathed if not victorious. But suspicions remain that he is open to playing footsie with the Prime Minister Rajapaksa, something he has been accused of doing before. With his long experience as prime minister and opposition leader and a very long stint as leader of the UNP, it is suggested that he can give good advice to the government.

Whether the president and the government are open to such advice is an open question. In his first intervention in Parliament following his swearing, Wickremesinghe while not adopting a belligerent tone, faulted the government for its lack of a plan in the current crisis situation, militarization of civil services including the response to the Covid pandemic, rapidly depleting foreign reserves and granting tax relief to “big people” while imposing hunger on “small people.” He sought a parliamentary debate to discuss the transfer of parliamentary power to the military, urging cabinet leadership in meeting the daunting challenges confronting the country.

There is widespread speculation as this is being written that Basil Rajapaksa will return to Parliament via the creation of a National List vacancy and assume an important ministry dealing with economic affairs. The finance ministry, currently held by the prime minister, has also been mentioned in this connection. Whether this will or will not happen remains to be seen. Nevertheless it must be said that most people believed the 20th Amendment provision enabling dual citizen to enter Parliament was intended for Basil. No hasty appointment, however, was made. He did not run at the last election due to the 19th Amendment prohibition and his unwillingness to renounce his American citizenship unlike brother Gotabaya. His admirers, admitting that the people are shouldering unbearable burdens, openly promise that Basil will wave a magic wand. Will a fuel price reduction be the first of these concessions?