‘Destroy in order to save’ strategy figuring in Ukraine invasion

Is the Russian noose tightening around Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv? This is one of the biggest posers in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, now well into its third week, that is crying out for an urgent answer.

Although the Russian invasion gives the impression of stalling somewhat on the immediate outskirts of Kyiv, the Ukrainian resistance would be naïve to blindly accept this largely Western assessment of Russian troop movements around the capital city. They would do well to act with an open mind on this question although there is no doubt that the Ukrainian side is offering doughty resistance to the invasion. Right now, it could be said that the Putin regime has lost the ‘hearts and minds’ battle. Not only is the Ukrainian side offering quite unexpected stiff resistance but there is an outpouring of empathy from the world’s democracies in particular for the ordinary citizenry of Ukraine. This factor, combined with the multifaceted support going Ukraine’s way from Western governments is rendering any expected dramatic progress by the invading forces doubly difficult to achieve. Yet, the resistance would need to remain strongly committed to its task, if it is to continue to register any sizeable political and military gains from its endeavours.

Nevertheless, the pounding from the air of Kyiv and some other major cities and targets in Ukraine continues. This is being done by Moscow with hardly a care apparently for civilian lives. This raises the question of whether the Putin regime too is hitting on the tried and failed military strategy of ‘destroying the city/village’ in order to ‘save’ it.

The strategy was tried out at great price to itself and civilians by the US way back in the Vietnam war, to name just one such storm centre of US military involvement in the South. The Soviets followed suit in Afghanistan hardly a decade later. Needless to say, this strategy of bombing civilian centres into submission in order to capture them resulted in the superpowers concerned opening up military quagmires for themselves in the countries of invasion.

It is far too early to say that the Putin regime has earned the same unenviable lot for itself in Ukraine but it would be a likely consequence if the Ukraine resistance continues with its stiff defense, with the West not backing down from its commitment to support it unfalteringly, particularly on the military plane. Apparently, sophisticated Western heavy weaponry supplied to the resistance is playing a major role right now in keeping the Russians at bay and the resistance would be gaining militarily and politically to the degree to which the invasion is stalled.

Once again, it is to that unequalled classic on guerrilla warfare, ‘The War of the Flea – Guerrilla Warfare, Theory and Practice’ (A Paladin Frogmore publication, 1970) by renowned Western journalist Robert Taber that one must turn to gain deeper insights into wars of the kind that are occurring in Ukraine. With regard to the US occupation of Vietnam in the sixties and early seventies Taber says in his introduction, among other things: ‘Vietnam is the perfect – and of course horrible – example. For to the extent that it has been possible to ‘save’ it, i.e. keep it from falling to the insurgent Viet Cong, it has been necessary to destroy it, to denude its green and fertile land with napalm and chemicals, to decimate its civilian population…’.

We are reminded on drinking deep of these perceptive observations on wars of invasion in the South, for example, that ‘the first draft of history’ is always written by resourceful journalists such as Taber and not by idea-mongering pundits. Even in the case of Ukraine, it is thanks to ‘unkept’ journalists that people the world over are coming by the truth.

Hopefully, the Russian side would come to the realization that it would be gaining almost nothing substantial in the long run from its military adventure in Ukraine. Even if it over-runs the latter, governing it would prove difficult on account of the fact that the majority of Ukrainian citizens would be against it. Already the more resourceful of Ukrainians are going in for combat training. Their ranks are reportedly being swelled by sympathizers from abroad, many of them war veterans. Their specific objective evidently is to form themselves into a guerrilla outfit which would take on the Russian forces in a prolonged guerrilla war, if necessary. In other words, a ‘War of the Flea’ is in the making.

A long-running guerrilla war would prove costly for the Russian centre in particularly the long term. It would need to brace for mounting casualties on its side, besides countenancing mounting unrest at home, stemming from the anti-war sentiment, which is sizeable. This would grow in tandem with rising economic grievances on the part of the Russian people, now that Western economic sanctions are beginning to bite. These developments and many more go to prove that in the long term it is the guerrillas who triumph. The patience of the ‘Flea’ would win out in the end against the mighty creature which is savaging it.

However, both sides are likely to suffer prohibitive costs, human and material, in the interim. This too is a lesson of modern political history. Right now, a willingness by both sides to work out a mutually-acceptable political solution to the conflict is the ideal turn events could take.

Fortunately, Ukraine President Volodymr Zelenskyy is on record as stating that Ukraine cannot join NATO. This has been the Putin regime’s obsessive worry so far. The invasion apparently was launched as a preemptive move against Ukraine going in for NATO membership.

However, this position by the Ukraine leader is likely to have been a pragmatic initiative aimed at de-escalating current hostilities in consideration of the mounting human suffering they are incurring. It does not rule out the possibility of Ukraine initiating fresh moves for NATO membership in the future. In which case, Ukraine is likely to receive strong backing by the West and its closest NATO neighbours, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovenia, some leaders of which countries were in Kyiv a couple of days back in a strong show of support for Ukraine. The ‘war’ could indeed be long drawn.