Features
Data-driven decision making for economic prosperity and good governance – part I
By Dr. Ranga Prabodanie
Just as the industrial revolution transformed the agrarian economies to manufacturing economies during 1970s and 1980s, the “data revolution” is expected to transform the world towards a global digital economy within the 21st century. Unlike the coal-fueled industrial revolution, today’s data revolution has opened a fair game allowing all nations, businesses and individuals to harness the relentless tide of data. Today, the production, storage and consumption of digital data has become a virtually unconscious process. Billions of people and devices connected to internet are generating massive amounts of data on people, products, markets, weather, traffic, etc. and the list goes to infinity. Such data in large volume, velocity, variety and complexity known as “big data” together with advances in technologies such as Internet-of-Things (IOT), Artificial Intelligence, Cloud and Edge Computing, Robots and 5G networks have paved the way for the 21st century data revolution. Cost efficiency, scalability and adaptability of these technologies have created an open competitive environment where anyone who take strategic advantage of data by uncovering the hidden insights can reach the heights of success.
Broadly defined, data-driven decision making is the process of collecting and analyzing data and generating insights from data to inform decision making. It’s the philosophy of making decisions based on real data rather than on intuition. This article attempts to rationalize a nation-wide movement to explore data strategically for economic and social development. To establish the context, let’s first take a look at how successful businesses use data smartly to drive their profits.
Data-Driven Business Models
Amazon, the world’s largest online marketplace, which placed its founder Jeff Bezos among the richest in the world, is a typical success story of data-driven decision making. Amazon’s product recommendation algorithms make intelligent predictions on which products each customer would be interested in, based on what the customer have viewed, bought, ranked and reviewed previously. Highly personalized product recommendations are driving Amazon’s profits and sales. By carefully tracking and analyzing every single aspect of customer behavior from mouse-click to product search and purchase, and by integrating the insights generated from such data into their decision making, the company has realized staggering profits and sales over the years.
Coca Cola recently introduced a new flavour Cherry Sprite based on the data recorded on self-service soft drink machines that dispense drinks according to customer specified mix (Bernard Marr – an article on Forbes magazine). They have utilized extensive analysis of sales data to identify trends such as decline in demand for sugary drinks and to optimally combine several factors including price, taste and packaging to match the expectations of local customers in more than 200 countries throughout the world. The company has developed and promoted healthier options such as Minute Maid in response to market intelligence they have generated not only from sales data but those shared on social media.
Uber, which revolutionized, the transportation industry within few years of its inception, is fuelled by data they collect on bookings, trips, travel patterns and behaviors. You may have enjoyed the luxury of picking up an Uber Taxi within few minutes out of the shopping mall or airport. How do they make the taxis available when and where we need them just-in-time? Uber uses historical data on times, days, and locations where the demand occurred and the trips completed to perform extensive analysis which identify areas where the demand can exceed supply. They then inform the drivers to move to such areas well in time to explore the rising demand. Uber uses data extensively in every business function including pricing, driver rating, traffic monitoring, driver guiding, and fake-rides detection.
Ecommerce in Sri Lanka
If we compare those three multinational business models with similar businesses in Sri Lanka, our retailers, soft-drink businesses and taxi services do use information technology, and are not necessarily under-resourced, at least in terms of digital data; but why cannot they stand out from others, cross the national boundaries and make global brands? Supermarket chains such as Keells, Arpico and Cargills collect massive amounts of sales data just as Amazon does. If they properly analyze the data, they can learn more about consumer behaviors and tastes (e.g. fast-moving brands, products bought together, quantities purchased, shopping frequencies, arrival times) and use those insights to offer a unique shopping experience. There was a boom in online shopping during the pandemic lockdowns, but unfortunately, all our retailers had similar ecommerce platforms with same basic functionality and they lacked data-driven innovation. Shoppers have to search, check availability, select and add each item to the cart coping with annoyingly slow web site performance. Reducing search, and thus the transaction cost, is the fundamental concept which drives the success of ecommerce business. If our leading retailers had ever looked at the sales data seriously, they would have known that people usually buy the same brand of milk powder every time and same set of consumer products every week. And who knows, there may be other surprising patterns hidden underneath the heaps of sales data. Simple data-driven innovations such as suggesting or adding customer favorites to the cart automatically can escalate retail sales and profits while saving the customers’ valuable time.
Understanding the Customer
The taxi services in Sri Lanka also have online and mobile booking facilities and all the data on service requests, bookings and completed trips are recorded. If those records are mined using appropriate methods and technology, they could reveal unimaginable insights that would help improve the service. Success in service sector is hugely dependent on understanding the customer. As Coca Cola has always acknowledged, customer tastes vary across continents and they evolve rapidly over time. Hence, acquisition of market intelligence through continuous data collection and analysis is of utmost importance for the fast-moving service sector.
Within the service domain, banking, finance and insurance sector is usually the forerunner in adopting up-to-date technologies. Almost all banks in Sri Lanka have electronic records of customers, accounts, transactions, savings, etc. but what rarely happens is the analysis of those records to generate insights on specific customer groups and their specific needs. Previously unexplored opportunities may arise with emerging trends such as delayed retirement, overseas higher education and online shopping. In such dynamic business environments, data is the primary source of market intelligence and the perfect recipe for understanding the customer.
Data-Driven Governance
It’s not only the profit-seeking businesses which capitalize on the mass influx of data. Forward-looking nations use data to generate intelligence that drive public policy and delivery of public services ensuring transparency and accountability. In developed countries like US and Australia, data-driven predictive analysis is used to estimate and manage the demand for health and aged care services. Emergency services use historical data on emergency calls, locations, response times, etc., for efficient allocation of resources to improve their preparedness and response. Several countries use crime data analysis (dates, locations, types, victims, suspects, etc.) for risk assessment, to improve crime intelligence, and to fight crime more proactively. Simulations based on weather data, hydro-geographical data, emissions and extractions are used for measuring and predicting environmental impacts and informing government policy towards mitigation and conservation.
Data use in Developing Countries
The world bank report on “Big Data in Action for Government” highlights several examples of developing countries adopting data driven decision making to serve their people better. A state government in Brazil has used a mobile app to collect real time data on health care services which enabled them to identify issues such as bribing and to respond timely and efficiently. In Seoul, South Korea, data from taxi services have been used to optimize the nighttime bus service by matching the origins and destinations of the trips. Kenyan government uses a mapping platform to identify areas where there are shortages of education resources. In Mexico, data from student interaction and feedback are analyzed to identify problems and continuously improve the education process. The municipal government of Shanghai has significantly reduced the maintenance cost and service disruptions in their water supply network by monitoring data obtained from sensors installed at various points of the network to identify issues such as leaks. South African government is using data from satellite images and mobile apps to geo-locate households with a view to digitize their census process. In India, data on nightlights captured from satellite images are used to monitor electricity supply. There are countless other examples of governments using widely available technology to collect data on public services, market performance, investments, and other socio-economic indicators. They analyze the data to identify trends, patterns, issues and developments and to predict future events, outcomes and behaviors. The insights and predictions then inform and guide the policy formulation.
Above examples provide evidence that even the developing countries can use data strategically and innovatively for economic development and social well-being. The next part of this article will focus on where we are today as a nation in the path towards the data revolution and where we can be tomorrow.
(The writer is a Senior Lecturer in Wayamba University of Sri Lanka. However, the views and ideas presented are those of the author and do not reflect the policy or position of any institution.)
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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