COVID spike expected in India

Nearly ten million cases by next January

COVID-19: Infections to rise in India in winter; more hospital resources needed. At least three new sub-variants — BF.7, XBB and BQ.1 — of the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 have been detected in India. Several lineages of the fifth variant of concern have begun dominating in different geographies.The mutations indicate they are more immune evasive — the growth advantage allowing them to replace preceding sub-variants like BA.5. But little is understood about its pathogenicity. However, an increase in cases is expected in India and across the world as fall and winter approaches.

In the past 24 hours, India reported 1,946 new cases, while the active caseload is 25,968 as of October 19, 2022. More than 200,000 tests were carried out in the same duration.Plotting these figures on a graph would reflect the lull we are in right now. But as the weather changes, cases are expected to rise. The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), an independent population health research centre at the University of Washington Medicine in the United States, estimates an increase in infections but not reported cases starting this month till December. The predicted increase in infections, not accounting for the emergence of a new variant, is expected to be quite large.

“But the infection-detection rate, the fraction of infections that get reported as a case in official data, is now down to an incredibly low level. In some parts of the Northern Hemisphere, it’s below 2 per cent; in others it may be as high as 5 per cent,” IHME noted.

(– Down to Earth)