Covid-19 recoveries in India see big spike

BY S VENKAT NARAYAN
Our Special Correspondent

NEW DELHI, August 3: The number of people, who have recovered from Covid-19, in India, crossed the 1.1 million mark over the weekend, when over 100,000 people were declared free of the virus. These are the highest numbers recorded yet, over two days, in what is being seen as a sign of the country’s disease mitigation strategy being effective in avoiding a high number of fatalities.

Covid-19 data from across the country showed that 51,845 recovered on Saturday and 40,449 recovered on Sunday, bringing the proportion of recoveries to 65.76%. As on Sunday, of the 1,803,267 infections in all, 38,159 people have succumbed to the viral disease. This translates to a case fatality ratio (CFR) of 2.12%. As of Sunday night, the doubling rate of cases – the number of days it takes for infections to double – across the country is 21.2 days.

Coordinated implementation of “effective containment strategy, aggressive testing and standardised clinical management protocols” resulted in a consistent trend of rising recovery rate and progressively reducing CFR, the Health Ministry said in a statement on Sunday.

The trends indicate India’s response to the pandemic is “improving at various levels of care, including at the societal level as well as in hospitals,” said Niti Aayog member VK Paul, who heads the national task force on Covid.

“It suggests that we have learnt to take care of our positive cases. We have learnt how soon to act and what works and what doesn’t. We are able to provide more organised and systematic treatment, clinically. Those involved in Covid-19 management are learning by the day by reading and from each other,” Paul added.

Since current trends indicate the final fatality rate could lie between 2-3%, India’s recovery rate is expected to eventually soar to over 90% once the outbreak nears its end.

In India, the 579,183 active cases (as of August 1) account for 32.12% of the total case load. At the current rate in which new cases are reported, active cases are doubling in 27 days. New hot spots emerging in three large-population states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and West Bengal, threaten to bring this number down.

The 38,159 deaths seen till August 2 will thus correspond, roughly, to the 1,004,652 cases seen 17 days ago on July 16. This brings India’s lagged case fatality ratio to 3.8% — a number consistent with what has been seen in countries that have largely been able to keep its healthcare systems from being overwhelmed. Italy and Spain have a CFR of over 14% and 8%, respectively.

“India’s mortality rate is low; under 3%, which means around 97-98% of those who get infected will eventually recover. The recovery rate is also linked with the case load; if the case load is higher, the recovery will take longer as it will also include higher percentage of serious cases,” said a senior epidemiologist with the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), requesting not to be named as he is not authorised to speak to the media.

Out of the total active cases currently, 0.28% patients are on ventilator, 1.61% require intensive care unit (ICU) support, and 2.32% are on oxygen support – trends that officials said reflected the level of preparations.

“What has also worked for India is that we have been prepared well in advance that has ensured our health system is not overwhelmed, and there is buffer, cushion and headroom that helps in saving lives. Faster recoveries are also because of increased testing because of which we are able to detect cases early and act accordingly,” he added.

The country’s maximum case load, which is about 80% of the cases, is restricted to 50 districts out of about 740 total districts.

“People are getting better and our mortality is low. Most positive cases do not require hospitalisation, and those needing intensive care is actually a minuscule number. Most people in hospitals have moderate disease with good chances of recovery. The need is to take care of our old and vulnerable population with co-morbidities that is at high risk of developing severe illness,” said Dr Rommel Tickoo, senior consultant, department of internal medicine, Max Healthcare.