Features
Counting the Cost: A President’s Legacy at Risk
By Kusum Wijetilleke
kusumw@gmail.com
Twitter: @kusumw
Sleep-walking Towards Tragedy
About 9,185 Sri Lankans had succumbed to Covid-19 as at 1st September. There are extraordinary scenes around the country with patients spilling out of overwhelmed hospitals. A widely circulated video shows patients lined up on the floor along corridors of the Colombo North Teaching Hospital in Ragama. There were emergency purchases of medical oxygen from India in May and reporting suggests that at present, Sri Lanka faces an acute shortage of ICU beds.
As the health system reaches breaking point, there is an inescapable feeling that Sri Lanka has lost control of a situation that many saw coming. The data from India and many other countries was clear; B.1.617.2 also known as the Delta variant would soon arrive preparations and precautions were necessary to protect the public.
Leading up to and during the Sinhala/ Tamil New Year period, medical experts were calling for a lockdown to at least delay the inevitable spread of the Delta variant. At the time, total deaths in Sri Lanka stood at just over 600, the daily death toll was in single digits. Community spread of the Delta variant was first officially reported in Sri Lanka on the 18th of June. The destructive April spike in India was ample evidence of its severity. The medical community had been consistent: the Delta variant was more aggressive and more transmissible.
Unfortunately for many thousands of Sri Lankans, the preservation of human life had to be subordinated to the more urgent priority of keeping open an ailing economy to serve what is ostensibly the greater, national good. During his most recent national address, while the walls continued to close in on the citizenry, the President requested “everyone in the country to be prepared to make more sacrifices…” There was no empathy for sacrifices already made, no sign of compassion given the tragic loss of life.
Speaking to the media on the 13 August, Executive Director of the Institute for Health Policy, Dr. Ravindra Rannan-Eliya stated that based on current projections, the death toll in Sri Lanka could surpass 20,000 by end 2021. He also pointed to the rate of double vaccinations at the time, which was around 10%; far too low to make a significant difference to the overall transmission rate. He further stated that Sri Lanka was at the lower end of the spectrum when it came to test and trace capabilities.
Only a few weeks later, Sri Lanka has been able to rapidly increase the fully-vaccinated rate to 30%, a testament to the efficiency of the Sri Lankan military and their 24-hour country-wide vaccination centres. Thanks to these efforts, Sri Lanka today has a far better rate of full vaccination than many other lower-middle income countries; Bangladesh (3.8%), Egypt (2%), Indonesia (12%), Pakistan (6%), Kenya (1.5%), Iran (5%), India (10%).
However, in a fast moving global pandemic, timing is everything. While vaccination rates increase, case numbers and deaths continue to surge as well. As Dr. Rannan-Eliya points out, Sri Lanka lags behind some peer group countries when it comes to testing volumes and capacity. Daily tests per million in Sri Lanka were around 500 going into the final week of August. India (1,384), Iran (1,159), Vietnam (1,644) and the Philippines (520) are all testing at higher rates than Sri Lanka.
For context on just how dire the situation in the country currently is, over the seven days leading up to 30th August 2021, Sri Lanka had the fifth highest deaths per million in the world, at 54. The only countries worse off over those seven days were Botswana (57), Eswatini (64), North Macedonia (72) and Georgia (102).
Priorities: Public Health or Politics?
Through a quite exceptional vaccination drive, the military has provided significant cover for the government’s many missteps at crucial junctures. Most countries suffered high numbers of casualties during the initial months of the pandemic in 2020, yet Sri Lanka had one of the lowest death rates in the world at the time. At no point in 2020 was Sri Lanka’s health infrastructure at risk of being overwhelmed. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa declared victory against the pandemic, questioning why Sri Lanka was not being recognised as a model nation in this regard. Indeed by April 2020, the Global Response to Infectious Disease (GRID) Index by CMA Australia ranked Sri Lanka’s pandemic response as the 9th best in the world.
Colombo is not Dhaka or New Delhi; Sri Lanka’s dense urban populations are not of the same intensity or frequency as many other nations in the South-East Asian Region. Given the head start Sri Lanka enjoyed throughout 2020, there was much that could have been done going into 2021. Total deaths as at 31st December 2020 stood at 204, which given the current death toll is an indicator of just how poorly the pandemic has been managed since the turn of the year.
The current lockdown was not so much a decision taken by the government, but a decision forced upon it by a chorus of critics. Last week, the WHO’s Independent Technical Expert Group in Sri Lanka, consisting of some 14 specialists from the medical field including Dr. Padma Gunaratne, Prof. Saroj Gunaratne and Prof. Neelika Malavige, called for extending the lockdown and increasing restrictions within it. The group pointed to a study from Monash University, which calculated that locking down until 18 September would help save 7,500 lives.
Throughout 2020, Sri Lanka wasted valuable time and spent resources elsewhere instead of building the necessary test-trace-isolate infrastructure that many medical experts, including Dr. Rannan-Eliya, had been calling for. Instead there was a general election, major constitutional changes and political theatre morphing in to a scarcely believable telenovela about dynasty. International borders were opened, then closed and reopened again. At one point after the reopening of borders, Russian and Ukrainian tourists arrived in the country while case numbers and deaths in those respective nations were surging.
Vaccine Procurement: Too Little, Too Late
Despite these evidently sub-optimal decisions, Sri Lanka still had every opportunity to get ahead of the global curve. A revealing piece by Attorney-at-Law Dr. Gehan Gunatilleke laid out some startling facts pertaining to the timeline and process of vaccination procurement in early 2021.
Sri Lanka’s National Medicine Regulatory Authority (NMRA) approved the Covishield vaccine manufactured by Serum Institute India (SII), on the 22nd of January 2021. Cabinet approval was granted a few days later and on the 28th of January Sri Lanka received its first batch of 500,000 doses as a donation from India due to its ‘neighbourhood first’ policy.
The first purchased batch of 500,000 Covishield vaccines only arrived on the 25th of February, almost a month later. This crucial delay seems to have been caused by switching from a pre-authorised local agent to the State Pharmaceutical Corporation (SPC). Considering that NMRA approval was obtained by the local agent in January, the Government could have placed an immediate order with SII and received a large shipment by early February. Everything was in place for such an order until the need arose for SPC involvement.
Some reports claim that SII had requested procurement through the SPC, however as per Dr. Gunatilleke the NMRA report made no mention of this and further, SII had already delivered 5 million doses to Bangladesh through a local agent in January. Was it the Sri Lankan authorities that required SPC involvement? A fresh approval needed to be obtained by the SPC which meant going through the entire procurement process again including obtaining approval for the purchase agreement.
A Cabinet briefing revealed that the price per dose of Covishield was $5.25; Sri Lanka would eventually pay $15 per dose for the Sinopharm vaccine. In an article dated 19th February, the Hindustan Times quoted Indian officials as stating that Sri Lanka’s State Pharmaceutical Corporation had signed an order for 10 million doses which SII had set aside for Sri Lanka.
In a separate report from June 2021, Attorney-at-Law Ranil Angunawela stated: “In our opinion, if Sri Lanka was already receiving donations of an NMRA-approved vaccine by January 28, 2021, and the price of a dose of the said vaccine was predetermined, there is no further impediment in the procurement guidelines that prevent a ‘very urgent and exceptional’ procurement order to be placed within days of NMRA approval,” said Angunawela.
Cabinet approval for the procurement of Covishield through SPC was granted on the 22nd of February and the first purchased batch of 500,000 doses arrived on the 25th. The nearly one month delay left Sri Lanka at the mercy of unforeseeable externalities; a fire at the SII manufacturing facility was compounded by a serious spike in cases in India, leading to a temporary ban on exports of Covishield.
The facts point to a missed opportunity: had Sri Lanka taken delivery of a significant order of vaccines anytime during February, several thousands of Sri Lankans could have been saved from the Delta variant. Another point to consider: why did the Government not diversify its risk on vaccine procurement; was there an over-reliance on the Serum Institute of India and Covishield?
In the Public Interest
Decisions on public health have been coloured by economic and political considerations. Throughout much of 2021, the message has been clear; human lives are important but not as important as the economy. Health issues are important, just not as important as cultural considerations such as the traditional New Year or the Esala Perahera. The President is under pressure to call for an independent report into vaccine procurement but he must go further and consider the totality of Sri Lanka’s response to the pandemic, specifically public health policy and economic stabilisation and stimulus measures.
It is safe to say that the only aspect of Sri Lanka’s response that can be considered an unmitigated success is the vaccination drive. Questions remain over almost every other facet of the Government’s response. Vaccine procurement and pricing aside, were necessary investments made to expand ‘test-trace-isolate’ facilities? Were adequate measures taken to increase the number of ICU beds and Heavy-Dependency Units (HDUs)? Were there early orders of medical oxygen supplies, C-PAP machines and ventilators? Did the Government consider anti-viral therapeutics like Hydroxychloroquine or Ivermectin, which India has approved? Did the administration prioritize the elderly who make up the lion’s share of hospitalizations and deaths? Were lockdowns introduced in a timely manner with adequate time provided for citizens to plan and prepare themselves?
Given the sacrifices made by Sri Lankans, given the state of the economy and the growing death toll, the President must realise his legacy is now at stake.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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