Central Bank says inflation is on target despite food price pressures

Dr. Chandranath Amarasekara, Director of Economic Research at the Central Bank of Sri Lanka

by Sanath Nanayakkare

While it is correct to say that the cost of living is rising particularly in terms of food prices, the Central Bank observes that inflation is well anchored broadly within the target range of 4-6 per cent, Dr. Chandranath Amarasekara, Director of Economic Research at the Central Bank of Sri Lanka told the Island Financial Review (IFR) yesterday.

IFR put this query to the Central Bank as many people are often heard complaining about rising food prices adding that there is no mechanism in place to stem it. A consumer in Delgoda told this reporter that a grocery retailer who offers best prices in the area sells Nipuna Samba at Rs.117.50 a kilo, white sugar at Rs.126 a kilo, brown sugar at Rs. 134 a kilo and canned fish Mackerel at Rs. 260 and edible B-onion at Rs. 250 a kilo though the gazetted (regulated) prices for these essential food items are much lower than that. He had bought turmeric curry powder at Rs. 300 per 100grams.

“As you have observed, cost of living is rising though non-food prices are rising slowly. Maintaining inflation in the target range does not mean that cost of living does not increase”. Dr. Amarasekara said.

Elaborating on what he termed as a nationally important subject, he said, “The Central Bank observes that inflation is well anchored broadly within the target range of 4-6 per cent. Year-on-year inflation based on the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI) was at 4.8 per cent at end 2019 and remained at 4.0 per cent by October 2020. Year-on-year inflation based on the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI), which was at 6.2 per cent at end 2019, remained higher at 6.4 per cent by September 2020”.

“The above figures show that there is indeed inflation, displaying that cost of living is rising at these rates on average. For example, compared to prices of the representative consumption basket last year, prices are 4.0 per cent higher in October 2020 if you consider the CCPI basket. If you compare the NCPI basket, average prices are 6.4 per cent higher. However, what the Central Bank is aiming to do is to maintain these increases on average between 4-6 per cent on a year-on-year basis. From what we know from the Sri Lankan experience as well as experiences of other countries is that excessive inflation as well as deflation is not good for an economy, and this is why the Central Bank aims to maintain inflation between 4-6 per cent”.

“When you compare CCPI and NCPI, you will also notice that inflation is higher at the national level than in Colombo. This is because the food category in the consumption basket is relatively small in Colombo – people spend more on other goods – compared to the national average. You see that food prices have remained at high levels, and this is what people mostly feel as high inflation. In fact, if you consider food inflation in the CCPI basket, it was 6.3 per cent at end 2019, but was at 10 per cent in October 2020. Food inflation in terms of NCPI, which was 8.6 per cent at end 2019 has risen to 12.7 per cent by September 2020. Throughout 2020, food inflation has remained at double digit levels,” he said.

“The government is monitoring food inflation closely and has taken several measures to regulate prices of food supplies. In addition, the ongoing drive to promote domestic food production will also result in considerable gains in the period ahead, thereby allowing food inflation to subside”, Dr. Amarasekara said.

Meanwhile, a resident at Mount Lavinia told the IFR that retail grocery shops in the area face a supply disruption due to the prevailing situation in the country which has obviously led to increases in food prices.

A resident in Kottawa said,” Grocery shops here don’t have samba rice. They have enough stocks of Keeri Samba sold at Rs. 120 a kilo”.