Central Bank expects inflation to “gradually stabilize”

Sri Lanka’s inflation is anticipated to gradually stabilise around the targeted level of five per cent over the medium term, following a short-lived acceleration of inflation in the near term on account of the recent tax adjustments and supply-side disruptions, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) said in its monetary policy report for February.

In the report, the CBSL said that headline inflation is expected to peak in the third quarter of 2024, mainly on account of the unfavourable base effect stemming from sharp disinflation recorded in the third quarter of 2023.

However, the near-term surge in headline inflation is unlikely to persist due to subdued demand conditions, as the economy is projected to operate below its full capacity for an extended period, the Bank said.

The CBSL observed that the rebound of domestic economic activity witnessed in the third quarter of 2023 is expected to continue, assisting the economy to gradually reach its potential over the medium term with the help of appropriate policies.

It predicted that the gradual relaxation of monetary policy will impact the broader market interest rates, and the resultant normalisation of nominal interest rates, are anticipated to stimulate growth towards its potential level by fostering investments, enhancing consumer spending, and ultimately boosting aggregate demand, thereby alleviating the ongoing contractionary impact on output.

The Central Bank said that they expect a negative trade-weighted foreign output gap to last for around two years, thereby impacting the domestic economy through exports. Improving productivity and addressing growth impediments by minimising structural limitations, such as the weak doing-business environment, remain pivotal to achieving a sustainable growth path and elevating the economy’s potential, it added.