Opinion
Central Bank caught between peg and hard place
ECONOMYNEXT –Sri Lanka’s central bank has been aggressively injecting liquidity on a longer term in the past weeks reducing liquidity shortages in the banking system, which if overdone could lead to forex shortages and instability again.
The central bank has injected 340 billion rupees through term injections – largely replacing lending window operations from January 09 and overnight injections began on January 17.
While liquidity shortages beyond a certain point have no value, care should be taken to ensure that excess liquidity conditions do not re-emerge.A liquidity shortage emerges in Sri Lanka’s banking system because a pegged regime is operated, despite whatever claims to the contrary.
In past currency crises, almost all the liquidity shortages from dollar sales (losses of foreign reserves) made to defend a peg were filled permanently to maintain an artificially low policy rate.
Currency crises and balance of payments deficits do not come from defending pegs as claimed by post 1935 academics and economic bureaucrats, but from money printed through open market operations to mis-target rates and maintain an artificially low policy rate after intervening.In this currency crisis, the worst created in the history of the central bank of Sri Lanka, large volumes of liquidity were only filled overnight. This is better than filling permanently, as it may prevent banks from giving credit due to asset liability mis-matches.
The liquidity injections allow banks to lend without deposits and trigger forex shortages, expand the external current account deficit – unless they were used to buy assets from fleeing foreign investors and more forex losses.
Classical economists have called such injections ‘fictitious capital’ in a pegged regime.However US academics (led by Mercantilists like John H Williams) and economic bureaucrats who built the Bretton Woods and the International Monetary Fund, thought it was possible to do so as their knowledge of classical theory seemed to have been weak, and instead used statistics to claim that it was possible.
That it was not possible was proved with the collapse of the Bretton Woods. But third world countries – outside of East Asia and GCC – continue to believe that it is possible, with disastrous consequences and never-ending trips to the IMF.A third world country is necessarily pegged. No single anchor regime country will remain poor for long.In past currency crises, foreign reserves losses (losses of NFA) were filled permanent purchases of Treasury securities, so large liquidity shortages running into hundreds of billions of rupees were not seen.
Outside of the net foreign assets losses, in this currency crisis, due to downgrades of credit, foreign banks parked large volumes of cash in the central bank instead of lending in the overnight market in a private sterilization style activity.As a result, a few foreign banks ended up with over 300 billion rupees of excess cash.
This is similar to people withdrawing cash from the banking system and burying them in proverbial coffee tins in their backyard as reportedly happened in the US during the Great Depression.A third reason for expanding liquidity shortages was the roll-over of central bank held Treasury bills (zero coupon bonds) with interest.
As a result, Sri Lanka’s net credit to government went up, without any changes in net foreign assets – since the central bank has run out of reserves – while reserve money or at least notes in circulation fell.
Over the past few weeks, the central bank started injecting liquidity (printing money) on a longer term basis reducing the overnight shortages.In addition, the central bank also stopped banks with excess cash from depositing money in the repo window at 14.50 percent, encouraging them to lend in the overnight market or buy Treasury bills.
This has started to happen and Treasury bill yield are coming down.Any of foreign bank money, or newly injected money that is used to buy Treasury bills will end up in state banks.
The central bank should maintain a liquidity short to absorb any liquidity that foreign banks use up to buy Treasury bills.The central bank was blamed by many for the current high rates.
Though it is true that country’s chronically high rates – and the high rates of all third world soft-pegged countries – are due to monetary instability coming from the central bank’s mis-management of a soft-pegged exchange rate regime, in this currency crises the threat of a domestic debt re-structuring has also contributed.
This column has warned for many years that the central bank cannot inject liquidity to suppress rates when private credit picks up and maintain the peg. Each time it is done, forex shortages emerge and the corrective rates are higher than if the rates were allowed to go up a little naturally to balance domestic credit and savings.
After months of injections, the rupee then collapses and rates go up steeply. This has happened repeatedly and has worsened under flexible inflation targeting. A floating exchange rate regime is needed for any type of inflation targeting (to operate a domestic anchor based monetary regime the external anchor has to be abandoned).In this context caution should be exercised in the current liquidity injections.
Sri Lanka is maintaining a peg at 360 to the US dollar without any reserves at the moment. It is done by a surrender rule where forced sales are made at around that price to the central bank, injecting liquidity and selling the same dollars back to banks.
Depending to the spread, this activity can also lead to liquidity shortages. In fact, the Bank of Thailand many decades ago re-built foreign reserves devastated by Japanese driven money printing during World War II, through such a strategy.
This column has in the past advocated floating the exchange rate and re-pegging, to re-establish the credibility of the peg. Before any float the surrender rule should be removed.
Exporters are still not selling forward, indicating that there is no market credibility for the 360 peg, though the central bank has operated monetary policy consistent with such a regime through liquidity shortages and negative private credit through higher rates.
Until the credibility of the peg is fully restored, some overnight liquidity shortages should to be maintained, especially at state banks, for the following reasons, despite private credit being negative.
a) The Treasury has warned that it may still require printed money. Overnight liquidity short should be large enough to absorb any such injections.
b) The first quarter of any year is where a drought comes and electricity sector losses are financed with credit. This column in early 2021 that rates be hiked and the currency floated before the drought. (Sri Lanka has to hike rates, tourism recovery will not help end forex crisis: Bellwether)
c) The shift of private sterilized money from foreign banks to state bank DST accounts should be absorbed as mentioned before.
This is because any of the new liquidity injections, and the privately sterilized money shifting from foreign banks to state or other banks can create forex shortages if loaned to the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation or Ceylon Electricity Board, to import fuel.
Though private credit is negative and the risks of foreign shortages, re-emerging are reduced, credit given to state energy utilities hit the forex market direct.It is also not clear whether there will be any central bank profit transfers this year. In 2022 NFA was negative, but there are profits from domestic assets which if transferred as printed money can create forex shortages as they are used by the recipients.
That is why this column has advocated in the past that profit transfers be made in US dollars in the first instance and be done with it.Sri Lanka has not yet got the IMF program, therefore confidence is low and any excess liquidity can undermine the very fragile peg.
Though there has been net excess liquidity in the market for a few days, some banks were still short by 132 billion rupees.
The central bank is caught between a peg and hard a place, with a clamour by businesses to bring down rates.In past crises, rates have started to come down from about two to three months after the currency is successfully floated, private credit turns negative and budget deficits begin to narrow .
But there has been no successful float to create credibility of the exchange rate in the market, the IMF deal and the attendant inflows that accompany it are yet to come.
Therefore, despite private credit being negative, due to problems in the CEB in particular and generally the budget, caution has to be exercise in liquidity injections and it will be a prudent strategy to maintain a short overall of at least 50 billion rupees.
After the IMF program comes, or even before that if there is a successful float and re-pegging, the central bank should consider abandoning the floor repo rate.Many East Asian central banks do that and it helps economies recover faster.
The recent blocking of access to the repo window is a similar strategy, but is fraught some risks at the moment because the new liquidity is not coming from an acquisition of foreign assets but from domestic assets.
The central bank could also consider rolling over Treasuries at par through a legal change until they are sold down to re-build reserves after the IMF program comes. This will reduce the government interest bill and eliminate any risks from a single day profit transfer.
Having said that IMF programs are no solution to a trigger-happy pegged bank that injects liquidity through open market operations.
The State Bank of Pakistan is melting now within an IMF program. Sri Lanka had currency problems in both 2011 and 2018 within IMF programs which were temporarily suspended as liquidity injections were made amid high domestic credit which led to missed foreign reserve targets.Liquidity shortages lose their value beyond a certain point, so the recent injections may not be harmful.However care should be taken never to go to back to excess liquidity conditions except through net foreign asset acquisitions.
Opinion
Child food poverty: A prowling menace
by Dr B.J.C.Perera
MBBS(Cey), DCH(Cey), DCH(Eng), MD(Paed), MRCP(UK), FRCP(Edin),
FRCP(Lon), FRCPCH(UK), FSLCPaed, FCCP, Hony FRCPCH(UK), Hony. FCGP(SL)
Specialist Consultant Paediatrician and Honorary Senior Fellow,
Postgraduate Institute of Medicine, University of Colombo, Sri Lanka.
Joint Editor, Sri Lanka Journal of Child Health
In an age of unprecedented global development, technological advancements, universal connectivity, and improvements in living standards in many areas of the world, it is a very dark irony that child food poverty remains a pressing issue. UNICEF defines child food poverty as children’s inability to access and consume a nutritious and diverse diet in early childhood. Despite the planet Earth’s undisputed capacity to produce enough food to nourish everyone, millions of children still go hungry each day. We desperately need to explore the multifaceted deleterious effects of child food poverty, on physical health, cognitive development, emotional well-being, and societal impacts and then try to formulate a road map to alleviate its deleterious effects.
Every day, right across the world, millions of parents and families are struggling to provide nutritious and diverse foods that young children desperately need to reach their full potential. Growing inequities, conflict, and climate crises, combined with rising food prices, the overabundance of unhealthy foods, harmful food marketing strategies and poor child-feeding practices, are condemning millions of children to child food poverty.
In a communique dated 06th June 2024, UNICEF reports that globally, 1 in 4 children; approximately 181 million under the age of five, live in severe child food poverty, defined as consuming at most, two of eight food groups in early childhood. These children are up to 50 per cent more likely to suffer from life-threatening malnutrition. Child Food Poverty: Nutrition Deprivation in Early Childhood – the third issue of UNICEF’s flagship Child Nutrition Report – highlights that millions of young children are unable to access and consume the nutritious and diverse diets that are essential for their growth and development in early childhood and beyond.
It is highlighted in the report that four out of five children experiencing severe child food poverty are fed only breastmilk or just some other milk and/or a starchy staple, such as maize, rice or wheat. Less than 10 per cent of these children are fed fruits and vegetables and less than 5 per cent are fed nutrient-dense foods such as eggs, fish, poultry, or meat. These are horrendous statistics that should pull at the heartstrings of the discerning populace of this world.
The report also identifies the drivers of child food poverty. Strikingly, though 46 per cent of all cases of severe child food poverty are among poor households where income poverty is likely to be a major driver, 54 per cent live in relatively wealthier households, among whom poor food environments and feeding practices are the main drivers of food poverty in early childhood.
One of the most immediate and visible effects of child food poverty is its detrimental impact on physical health. Malnutrition, which can result from both insufficient calorie intake and lack of essential nutrients, is a prevalent consequence. Chronic undernourishment during formative years leads to stunted growth, weakened immune systems, and increased susceptibility to infections and diseases. Children who do not receive adequate nutrition are more likely to suffer from conditions such as anaemia, rickets, and developmental delays.
Moreover, the lack of proper nutrition can have long-term health consequences. Malnourished children are at a higher risk of developing chronic illnesses such as heart disease, diabetes, and obesity later in life. The paradox of child food poverty is that it can lead to both undernutrition and overnutrition, with children in food-insecure households often consuming calorie-dense but nutrient-poor foods due to economic constraints. This dietary pattern increases the risk of obesity, creating a vicious cycle of poor health outcomes.
The impacts of child food poverty extend beyond physical health, severely affecting cognitive development and educational attainment. Adequate nutrition is crucial for brain development, particularly in the early years of life. Malnutrition can impair cognitive functions such as attention, memory, and problem-solving skills. Studies have consistently shown that malnourished children perform worse academically compared to their well-nourished peers. Inadequate nutrition during early childhood can lead to reduced school readiness and lower IQ scores. These children often struggle to concentrate in school, miss more days due to illness, and have lower overall academic performance. This educational disadvantage perpetuates the cycle of poverty, as lower educational attainment reduces future employment opportunities and earning potential.
The emotional and psychological effects of child food poverty are profound and are often overlooked. Food insecurity creates a constant state of stress and anxiety for both children and their families. The uncertainty of not knowing when or where the next meal will come from can lead to feelings of helplessness and despair. Children in food-insecure households are more likely to experience behavioural problems, including hyperactivity, aggression, and withdrawal. The stigma associated with poverty and hunger can further exacerbate these emotional challenges. Children who experience food poverty may feel shame and embarrassment, leading to social isolation and reduced self-esteem. This psychological toll can have lasting effects, contributing to mental health issues such as depression and anxiety in adolescence and adulthood.
Child food poverty also perpetuates cycles of poverty and inequality. Children who grow up in food-insecure households are more likely to remain in poverty as adults, continuing the intergenerational transmission of disadvantage. This cycle of poverty exacerbates social disparities, contributing to increased crime rates, reduced social cohesion, and greater reliance on social welfare programmes. The repercussions of child food poverty ripple through society, creating economic and social challenges that affect everyone. The healthcare costs associated with treating malnutrition-related illnesses and chronic diseases are substantial. Additionally, the educational deficits linked to child food poverty result in a less skilled workforce, which hampers economic growth and productivity.
Addressing child food poverty requires a multi-faceted approach that tackles both immediate needs and underlying causes. Policy interventions are crucial in ensuring that all children have access to adequate nutrition. This can include expanding social safety nets, such as food assistance programmes and school meal initiatives, as well as targeted manoeuvres to reach more vulnerable families. Ensuring that these programmes are adequately funded and effectively implemented is essential for their success.
In addition to direct food assistance, broader economic and social policies are needed to address the root causes of poverty. This includes efforts to increase household incomes through living wage policies, job training programs, and economic development initiatives. Supporting families with affordable childcare, healthcare, and housing can also alleviate some of the financial pressures that contribute to food insecurity.
Community-based initiatives play a vital role in combating child food poverty. Local food banks, community gardens, and nutrition education programmes can help provide immediate relief and promote long-term food security. Collaborative efforts between government, non-profits, and the private sector are necessary to create sustainable solutions.
Child food poverty is a profound and inescapable issue with far-reaching consequences. Its deleterious effects on physical health, cognitive development, emotional well-being, and societal stability underscore the urgent need for comprehensive action. As we strive for a more equitable and just world, addressing child food poverty must be a priority. By ensuring that all children have access to adequate nutrition, we can lay the foundation for a healthier, more prosperous future for individuals and society as a whole. The fight against child food poverty is not just a moral imperative but an investment in our collective future. Healthy, well-nourished children are more likely to grow into productive, contributing members of society. The benefits of addressing this issue extend beyond individual well-being, enhancing economic stability and social harmony. It is incumbent upon us all to recognize and act upon the understanding that every child deserves the right to adequate nutrition and the opportunity to thrive.
Despite all of these existent challenges, it is very definitely possible to end child food poverty. The world needs targeted interventions to transform food, health, and social protection systems, and also take steps to strengthen data systems to track progress in reducing child food poverty. All these manoeuvres must comprise a concerted effort towards making nutritious and diverse diets accessible and affordable to all. We need to call for child food poverty reduction to be recognized as a metric of success towards achieving global and national nutrition and development goals.
Material from UNICEF reports and AI assistance are acknowledged.
Opinion
Do opinion polls matter?
By Dr Upul Wijayawardhana
The colossal failure of not a single opinion poll predicting accurately the result of the Indian parliamentary election, the greatest exercise in democracy in the world, raises the question whether the importance of opinion polls is vastly exaggerated. During elections two types of opinion polls are conducted; one based on intentions to vote, published during or before the campaign, often being not very accurate as these are subject to many variables but exit polls, done after the voting where a sample tally of how the voters actually voted, are mostly accurate. However, of the 15 exit polls published soon after all the votes were cast in the massive Indian election, 13 vastly overpredicted the number of seats Modi’s BJP led coalition NDA would obtain, some giving a figure as high as 400, the number Modi claimed he is aiming for. The other two polls grossly underestimated predicting a hung parliament. The actual result is that NDA passed the threshold of 272 comfortably, there being no landslide. BJP by itself was not able to cross the threshold, a significant setback for an overconfident Mody! Whether this would result in less excesses on the part of Modi, like Muslim-bashing, remains to be seen. Anyway, the statement issued by BJP that they would be investigating the reasons for failure rather than blaming the process speaks very highly of the maturity of the democratic process in India.
I was intrigued by this failure of opinion polls as this differs dramatically from opinion polls in the UK. I never failed to watch ‘Election night specials’ on BBC; as the Big Ben strikes ‘ten’ (In the UK polls close at 10pm} the anchor comes out with “Exit polls predict that …” and the actual outcome is often almost as predicted. However, many a time opinion polls conducted during the campaign have got the predictions wrong. There are many explanations for this.
An opinion poll is defined as a research survey of public opinion from a particular sample, the origin of which can be traced back to the 1824 US presidential election, when two local newspapers in North Carolina and Delaware predicted the victory of Andrew Jackson but the sample was local. First national survey was done in 1916 by the magazine, Literary Digest, partly for circulation-raising, by mailing millions of postcards and counting the returns. Of course, this was not very scientific though it accurately predicted the election of Woodrow Wilson.
Since then, opinion polls have grown in extent and complexity with scientific methodology improving the outcome of predictions not only in elections but also in market research. As a result, some of these organisations have become big businesses. For instance, YouGov, an internet-based organisation co-founded by the Iraqi-born British politician Nadim Zahawi, based in London had a revenue of 258 million GBP in 2023.
In Sri Lanka, opinion polls seem to be conducted by only one organisation which, by itself, is a disadvantage, as pooled data from surveys conducted by many are more likely to reflect the true situation. Irrespective of the degree of accuracy, politicians seem to be dependent on the available data which lend explanations to the behaviour of some.
The Institute for Health Policy’s (IHP) Sri Lanka Opinion Tracker Survey has been tracking the voting intentions for the likely candidates for the Presidential election. At one stage the NPP/JVP leader AKD was getting a figure over 50%. This together with some degree of international acceptance made the JVP behave as if they are already in power, leading to some incidents where their true colour was showing.
The comments made by a prominent member of the JVP who claimed that the JVP killed only the riff-raff, raised many questions, in addition to being a total insult to many innocents killed by them including my uncle. Do they have the authority to do so? Do extra-judicial killings continue to be JVP policy? Do they consider anyone who disagrees with them riff-raff? Will they kill them simply because they do not comply like one of my admired teachers, Dr Gladys Jayawardena who was considered riff-raff because she, as the Chairman of the State Pharmaceutical Corporation, arranged to buy drugs cheaper from India? Is it not the height of hypocrisy that AKD is now boasting of his ties to India?
Another big-wig comes with the grand idea of devolving law and order to village level. As stated very strongly, in the editorial “Pledges and reality” (The Island, 20 May) is this what they intend to do: Have JVP kangaroo-courts!
Perhaps, as a result of these incidents AKD’s ratings has dropped to 39%, according to the IHP survey done in April, and Sajith Premadasa’s ratings have increased gradually to match that. Whilst they are level pegging Ranil is far behind at 13%. Is this the reason why Ranil is getting his acolytes to propagate the idea that the best for the country is to extend his tenure by a referendum? He forced the postponement of Local Governments elections by refusing to release funds but he cannot do so for the presidential election for constitutional reasons. He is now looking for loopholes. Has he considered the distinct possibility that the referendum to extend the life of the presidency and the parliament if lost, would double the expenditure?
Unfortunately, this has been an exercise in futility and it would not be surprising if the next survey shows Ranil’s chances dropping even further! Perhaps, the best option available to Ranil is to retire gracefully, taking credit for steadying the economy and saving the country from an anarchic invasion of the parliament, rather than to leave politics in disgrace by coming third in the presidential election. Unless, of course, he is convinced that opinion polls do not matter and what matters is the ballots in the box!
Opinion
Thoughtfulness or mindfulness?
By Prof. Kirthi Tennakone
ktenna@yahoo.co.uk
Thoughtfulness is the quality of being conscious of issues that arise and considering action while seeking explanations. It facilitates finding solutions to problems and judging experiences.
Almost all human accomplishments are consequences of thoughtfulness.
Can you perform day-to-day work efficiently and effectively without being thoughtful? Obviously, no. Are there any major advancements attained without thought and contemplation? Not a single example!
Science and technology, art, music and literary compositions and religion stand conspicuously as products of thought.
Thought could have sinister motives and the only way to eliminate them is through thought itself. Thought could distinguish right from wrong.
Empathy, love, amusement, and expression of sorrow are reflections of thought.
Thought relieves worries by understanding or taking decisive action.
Despite the universal virtue of thoughtfulness, some advocate an idea termed mindfulness, claiming the benefits of nurturing this quality to shape mental wellbeing. The concept is defined as focusing attention to the present moment without judgment. A way of forgetting the worries and calming the mind – a form of meditation. A definition coined in the West to decouple the concept from religion. The attitude could have a temporary advantage as a method of softening negative feelings such as sorrow and anger. However, no man or woman can afford to be non-judgmental all the time. It is incompatible with indispensable thoughtfulness! What is the advantage of diverting attention to one thing without discernment during a few tens of minute’s meditation? The instructors of mindfulness meditation tell you to focus attention on trivial things. Whereas in thoughtfulness, you concentrate the mind on challenging issues. Sometimes arriving at groundbreaking scientific discoveries, solution of mathematical problems or the creation of masterpieces in engineering, art, or literature.
The concept of meditation and mindfulness originated in ancient India around 1000 BCE. Vedic ascetics believed the practice would lead to supernatural powers enabling disclosure of the truth. Failing to meet the said aspiration, notwithstanding so many stories in scripture, is discernable. Otherwise, the world would have been awakened to advancement by ancient Indians before the Greeks. The latter culture emphasized thoughtfulness!
In India, Buddha was the first to deviate from the Vedic philosophy. His teachers, Alara Kalama and Uddaka Ramaputra, were adherents of meditation. Unconvinced of their approach, Buddha concluded a thoughtful analysis of the actualities of life should be the path to realisation. However, in an environment dominated by Vedic tradition, meditation residually persisted when Buddha’s teachings transformed into a religion.
In the early 1970s, a few in the West picked up meditation and mindfulness. We Easterners, who criticize Western ideas all the time, got exalted after seeing something Eastern accepted in the Western circles. Thereafter, Easterners took up the subject more seriously, in the spirit of its definition in the West.
Today, mindfulness has become a marketable commodity – a thriving business spreading worldwide, fueled largely by advertising. There are practice centres, lessons onsite and online, and apps for purchase. Articles written by gurus of the field appear on the web.
What attracts people to mindfulness programmes? Many assume them being stressed and depressed needs to improve their mental capacity. In most instances, these are minor complaints and for understandable reasons, they do not seek mainstream medical interventions but go for exaggeratedly advertised alternatives. Mainstream medical treatments are based on rigorous science and spell out both the pros and cons of the procedure, avoiding overstatement. Whereas the alternative sector makes unsubstantiated claims about the efficacy and effectiveness of the treatment.
Advocates of mindfulness claim the benefits of their prescriptions have been proven scientifically. There are reports (mostly in open-access journals which charge a fee for publication) indicating that authors have found positive aspects of mindfulness or identified reasons correlating the efficacy of such activities. However, they rarely meet standards normally required for unequivocal acceptance. The gold standard of scientific scrutiny is the statistically significant reproducibility of claims.
If a mindfulness guru claims his prescription of meditation cures hypertension, he must record the blood pressure of participants before and after completion of the activity and show the blood pressure of a large percentage has stably dropped and repeat the experiment with different clients. He must also conduct sessions where he adopts another prescription (a placebo) under the same conditions and compares the results. This is not enough, he must request someone else to conduct sessions following his prescription, to rule out the influence of the personality of the instructor.
The laity unaware of the above rigid requirements, accede to purported claims of mindfulness proponents.
A few years ago, an article published and widely cited stated that the practice of mindfulness increases the gray matter density of the brain. A more recent study found there is no such correlation. Popular expositions on the subject do not refer to the latter report. Most mindfulness research published seems to have been conducted intending to prove the benefits of the practice. The hard science demands doing the opposite as well-experiments carried out intending to disprove the claims. You need to be skeptical until things are firmly established.
Despite many efforts diverted to disprove Einstein’s General Theory of Relativity, no contradictions have been found in vain to date, strengthening the validity of the theory. Regarding mindfulness, as it stands, benefits can neither be proved nor disproved, to the gold standard of scientific scrutiny.
Some schools in foreign lands have accommodated mindfulness training programs hoping to develop the mental facility of students and Sri Lanka plans to follow. However, studies also reveal these exercises are ineffective or do more harm than good. Have we investigated this issue before imitation?
Should we force our children to focus attention on one single goal without judgment, even for a moment?
Why not allow young minds to roam wild in their deepest imagination and build castles in the air and encourage them to turn these fantasies into realities by nurturing their thoughtfulness?
Be more thoughtful than mindful?


