Budget, cannabis and reality

Wednesday 16th November, 2022

President Ranil Wickremesinghe has, in his budget speech, sought to kindle hopes of economic recovery. Claiming that the ongoing talks with the IMF, India, China, etc., would lead to positive outcomes, he has offered to build a ‘social market economy’ or an ‘open economic system of social protection’ whatever that means. However, there is no harm in the Head of State trying to infuse the public with some optimism amidst a national feeling of doom and gloom.

President Wickremesinghe has said a social market economy will help achieve a high economic growth of 7 to 8 percent, increase international trade (as a percentage of GDP) by more than 100 percent, ensure an annual growth of US$ 3 billion from new exports between 2023 and 2032, secure foreign direct investment of more than US$ 3 billion in the next 10 years, and create an internationally competitive workforce within the next decade.

Youth unrest and the resultant protests seem to have prompted the government to undertake to adopt what it calls a youth-oriented approach to economic development. President Wickremesinghe, in his budget speech, chose to call the youth ‘the real national wealth’. He is of the view that attention has not been paid to the country’s youth, and their hopes are fading; they are calling for systemic changes.

It is heartening that the President has realised the need to serve the interests of the youth, but it is not clear how his government intends to set about the task. One can only hope that it is not paying lip service to young citizens’ cause.

Among the measures the government has proposed to boost the foreign currency inflow is to create a business-friendly environment. One of the biggest obstacles to foreign investment is corruption. No foreigner can invest here unless he or she is willing to grease countless palms. How does the President propose to tackle this problem? The culprits are in his government!

Budget 2023 has proposed labour law reforms but stopped short of specifying them. The President has only said the country’s labour laws are outdated and fragmented and there is a pressing need for what he calls a new, unified labour law. Will the proposed labour laws deprive workers of their rights in the name of investment promotion?

The government has also proposed land reforms in all but name. The President has said that a programme will be launched to enable investors to utilise land productively to increase both production and exports. This is an area where the government ought to tread cautiously, for the disposal of state land always leads to rackets.

The proposed macro-fiscal framework is aimed at increasing government revenue from 8.3% to 16% of GDP by 2025, achieving a primary surplus of more than 2% of GDP in 2025, reducing public sector debt from about 110% of GDP to less than 100% in the medium term, bringing inflation to a single-digit level in the medium term, ensuring that interest rates will reach a moderate level, restoring macroeconomic confidence and replenishing exchange reserves with foreign finances to ease pressure on the exchange rate, and enabling the medium-term economic growth to return to about 5% by enhancing structural reforms. This is a tall order, and how the government will fare in pursuing these goals remains to be seen.

Budget 2023 is very clear on the government’s plan to restructure some profit-earning state-owned ventures such as Sri Lanka Telecom and Sri Lanka Insurance, and utilise the proceeds therefrom to strengthen foreign exchange reserves and the rupee. So, a fire-sale of state assets will commence soon.

The government’s desperation for forex is evident from its proposal to set up an expert committee to explore the possibility of producing Triloka Wijayapathra (cannabis or ganja) for export. This is bound to cause quite a stir. President Wickremesinghe is no stranger to controversy. If the government cares to solve farmers’ problems such as the existing fertiliser shortage and high cost of production thereby developing the agricultural sector, and goes all out to recover the country’s stolen funds, there will be no need to grow cannabis.

President Wickremesinghe, on Monday, sought to justify the unconscionable tax increases ratified by Parliament weeks earlier. He proposed to set up a Presidential Commission on Taxation ‘to study and make recommendations on the functioning, coordination and changes to be made in the tax structure, the institutions, procedures, etc.’ It is one’s fervent hope that the government is not contemplating any more tax increases!

The Opposition has dismissed Budget 2023 as something worthless, and flayed the government for not providing relief to the public. The budget is not devoid of flaws, but the question is whether the President could have done better, given the country’s economic situation.

Meanwhile, the government says it is confident that it has enough numbers in Parliament to secure the passage of Budget 2023. But efforts are being made in some quarters to shoot it down. The SLPP-UNP combine is taking precautions and all out to engineer some crossovers from the Opposition. A political war over the national budget has to be avoided for the sake of the ailing economy, which cannot take any more shocks. It is imperative that the warring parties get themselves around the table, with compromises being made in the form of committee-stage changes to the budget, so that there will be no showdown at the expense of the ongoing efforts to stabilise the economy.