Features
Blood-bath in the politburo
by Kumar David
The Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) constitutes the power elite of the Party and is the ruling council of the country. The seven members of the standing soon to be ratified at the 20th Party Congress are Xi Jinping (age 69), Li Qiang (tipped to be the next Prime Minister, age 63), Zhao Leji (anti-corruption tsar, age 65), Wang Huning (Marxist theoretician, age 67), Cai Qi (General Secretariat to manage day to day party affairs, age 66), and Ding Xuexiang (Xi factotum and loyalist, age 60)
Four members of Standing Committee will be removed. Among them is current Premier Li Keqiang and members Wang Yang, Han Zheng, and Li Zhanshu. The latter two were expected to step down, having passed the informal age limit of 68 – a requirement not extended to Xi. Wang Yang and current PM Li Keqiang, both 67, could still have continued in the Standing Committee or 25-member Politburo for another five-year term but were pushed out to make space for Xi loyalists. In an acutely embarrassing and unchoreographed incident former Chinese President Hu Jintao was escorted out of the Congress. There is speculation about what’s going on, it could simply be ill health; he is very much a party man and unlikely to rock the boat in a last-minute drama, nevertheless since he has not issued any statement from his place of recuperation we need to wait and see.
I have worked and travelled extensively in Hong Kong and China for 40 years and here is my assessment of the relationship between the CCP and the people. The vast majority, even anti-communists agree that an abrupt internal collapse of the CCP or its sudden fall from power at this moment would lead to domestic chaos and a weakening of China internationally. Most will also agree that China is not democratic and wish to see more democracy but have different views about what democracy in China should look like. The reasons for being wary of a power vacuum are obvious. For three and a half millennia when central power collapsed or a dynasty fell, there was chaos on a gigantic scale. Millions of lives were lost and the land was devastated as warlords and aspirants to power battled it out.
Take just the last two centuries starting with the Taiping Rebellion of 1850-1864 between the Manchu Qing Dynasty allied with its Han beneficiaries, against the Hakka-led Taiping Heavenly Kingdom of the self-proclaimed “younger brother of Jesus Christ”, Hong Xiuquan. Devastation was extreme, it is estimated that 20 million perished. It also marks the beginning of China’s “century of humiliation” since imperialist powers gained control of all the country’s power centres. Then came the Boxer Uprising (1899-1901), an anti-foreign, anti-colonial and anti-Christian uprising which was crushed by the imperialist powers with the loss of over 100,000 Chinese lives. Beijing was occupied and the Imperial Court banished to Xian.
The humiliation goes on in the twentieth century. The 1911 Revolution established the Republic of China identified with Dr Sun Yat Sen, but the gains petered out in internal factional brawls and foreign intervention – Japanese in the North and American in the South and East. Then the Nanjing Massacre or Rape of Nanjing of 1937 when 300,000 to half a million Chinese were massacred by the Imperial Japanese Army. In the meantime, Chinese administrations all over the country were collapsing and the Communist Party had been formed in Shanghai in 23 July 1921 by Mao Zedong, Zhou Enlai, Chen Duxiu, Zhou Fohai – 57 Chinese and a few Russian Comintern representatives.
This was followed by the Long March, the civil war and liberation in 1949 (“The Chinese People have stood up”) but hardship did not end. I do not need to detail recent history but enumerate the Great Leap Forward (1958-62 where the best estimate of death from famine is 30 million) and the decade-long (1966-76) Cultural Revolution where the loss of life was not as large as in the Great Leap Forward but political conflict tore the country apart in Mao’s mentally declining years. The Sino-Soviet conflict, the Gang of Four and June 4 Tiananmen Square are well known recent history.
One can appreciate why Chinese people, whatever their views of the Beijing government, communism or the Party shudder at the thought of instability and disorder. My personal reading of the thinking of many Chinese friends is that they cannot forget the humiliation of the last two centuries. However, there is something far more than the notion of “Chinese nationalism” that Westerners reduce it to. My friends not being philosophers do not state it thus, but it is civilizational rather than nationalist. Apart from China (and Hong Kong) there is a flavour of this in all Chinese communities across Asia, Taiwan Province, Singapore (obvious in Lee Kuan Yew) and the hundreds of China Towns in the USA. The resonances overlap sentiments deeply rooted in three and a half millennia of unbroken civilisation. These are civilizational resonances, deeper than nationalism. My blunt matrixes may not make sense to Chinese friends or befuddled foreigners!
Let me move on to something more prosaic that I can write about with confidence: China’s material and economic prospects for the next decade. Whether measured by a PPP yardstick or in nominal dollar values it is very likely that the size of the Chinese economy will surpass the United States in say a decade. The advantages of competent state direction in the initial decades of post-colonial modernisation are bearing fruit. The difference from a basket-case like Sri Lanka is the word competent. Whether under the leadership of the Communist Party, or in say Singapore, Taiwan or South Korea (each for different reasons) the directive-modernising role of the state was different but nowhere was as mismanaged, incompetent and corrupt as in Sri Lanka. But that’s a different story.
That China will catch up and surpass the US economy in size in about 10 years, even if long-term growth in the former is constrained to 4% and falls to 1% in the US, is simple arithmetic. The entire capitalist world including especially the Euro Block and Japan is of course much larger than the US alone and even a China-Russia cooperative strategy will take much longer to reach par. (I argued the prospects for China-Russia economic cooperation in the closing paragraphs of ‘Putin’s Last Stand’ on Oct 16, 2022). Size does matter but it is not the only attractor; there are other factors: technology, investment, military focus and another crucial qualitative aspect. The bread-an- butter technology picture, is mixed. China seems to be pulling ahead in Artificial Intelligence and hard technology for industrial expansion. While the West is hell bent on denying China access to the best in computer-chips and military know-how, there may be ways round this such as joint-ventures and theft of intellectual property. Russian science and technology are no pushover and China-Russia cooperation can yield results. This therefore in not a closed chapter.
American and Western military superiority is also a concern for China. The West spends far more on military research and technology, the US has special agencies such as the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) and its aircrews have hugely more training in the air. Some shortcomings can be addressed, for example military R&D can be increased, an agency similar to ARPA created, though catching up in aircrew training is a tougher job. Still, I grant that the gap can be narrowed.
In closing I would like to look beyond a decade or two and peer past the middle of this Century. The state directed phase is building railways, airports and highways; it is encouraging massive soulless public housing projects by private developers who are lining their pockets with millions of Yuan and dollars. The nagging question on the horizon however is what after the dirigisme phase as served its purpose and is past its use-by date. How is post-dirigisme society, technology and innovation to organise itself?
Marx speculated that “in place of the old bourgeois society, with its class antagonisms, we shall have an association, in which the free development of each is the condition for the free development of all”. And speculated (much abbreviated) in the German Ideology “Each man has a particular, sphere of activity from which he cannot escape. He is hunter, fisherman or critical critic, and must remain so but in a society of plenty he can hunt in the morning, fish in the evening and criticise after dinner without being hunter, fisherman, or critic”. Only if society has progressed to plenty is unencumbered freedom possible; perhaps a century into the future.But leave aside flowery expectations and ponder the immediate circumstances of post-dirigisme China. Innovation is not automatic. Productivity enhancement in China is falling behind and raises questions about what the nature of the freedoms essential for the future. Society has to be set free to flourish.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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