Big power brinkmanship and that elusive ship in Red Sea

By Lasanda Kurukulasuriya

There appears to be confusion over diverse reports on the deployment of a Sri Lanka Navy ship in the Red Sea, to participate in a US-led military operation against Houthi ship attacks. President Ranil Wickemesinghe has remarked on this mission at various events, but it is still not clear whether a vessel is to be sent, has already been sent, or will not be sent.

Over the past several weeks, media reports have conveyed that:

– The Red Sea deployment to join the US-led “Operation Prosperity Guardian” is unlikely, as none of the Offshore Patrol Vessels in service with the SLN are equipped to operate in a missile environment (The Island 07.02.24)

– No ship has still been sent (The Sunday Times 18.02.24 citing a foreign ministry source)

– At a TV panel discussion on ‘Sovereignty, geopolitics and citizens’ on 28.02 24, none of the panelists referred to a ship having been dispatched on this mission, although the subject came up. Had such an event transpired, it’s unlikely that none on that panel had learnt of it (TV1 News1st 28.02.24, Face the Nation)

– That same day US ambassador Julie Chung at an Indian Ocean Conference organised by the Pathfinder Foundation said: “We have donated 3 former US Coast Guard Cutters to Sri Lanka’s Navy and provided a variety of other security assistance. We recently witnessed SL addressing global challenges head-on, and broadening its role on the world stage, by sending one of those donated Cutters to support Operation Prosperity Guardian that the president mentioned. The Sri Lankan Navy joined a multinational coalition of naval vessels in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea from over a dozen countries, to help safeguard the freedom of navigation and protect the busy sea lanes of commercial ship traffic from Houthi attacks.” (TV1 News1st 9pm English news 28.02.24)

Given that there has been no credible confirmation of the status of this mission for two months, it would appear the ambassador was taking her cue from remarks by the president at the conference, where he’s on record saying that “The freedom of navigation has led us now, to take part in the Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea.”

Thereafter The Island on 01.03.24 reported that there will be ‘No Red Sea deployment.’ It said: “Contradicting a claim made by US Ambassador Julie Chung the previous day, authoritative sources denied the deployment of an Offshore Patrol Vessel (OPV) in support of operation ‘Prosperity Guardian’ in the Red Sea to combat Houthis.” The report cited sources saying that two OPVs, SLNS Sayura (P 620) and SLNS Gajabahu (P 626) had been deployed on a special several weeks long mission in the Arabian Sea, on an anti-narcotic operation. SLNS Gajabahu had returned to Colombo whereas SLNS Sayura was on its way back.

Protecting economic interests

At two subsequent events however, President Wickremesinghe, who is Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces, again asserted the intention to participate in the US-led military operation. At a SLAF Cadets Commissioning ceremony held at Trincomalee Airbase on 29.02.24 he reportedly said “Our security forces have played a significant role in safeguarding the state of Mali from terrorism, earning appreciation from others for their efforts. In the event of our economic rights being compromised in the Red Sea, we are steadfast in our commitment to protecting them. Consequently, should issues arise concerning regional or global peace, we pledge to extend the necessary support to the United Nations Organization.” (President’s Media Division, translation)

The next day (01.03.24) at the SLN Fleet Review at Trincomalee Harbour, he asserted: “It is imperative that we prevent any harm to our economic endeavours in the Indian Ocean. Furthermore, we have made arrangements to deploy our navy for the security of the Red Sea. Recalling the adverse effects of the closure of the Suez Canal during the 1967 Israeli-Arab war, which halted operations at the Colombo port for a decade, underscores the necessity of safeguarding the Indian Ocean. .. I am confident that our navy will effectively undertake this responsibility in the future. (PMD, translation)

The president has made some points justifying participation in the Red Sea military operations against Houthis. One was, protecting Sri Lanka’s economic interests that would be harmed by disruption of trade transiting the vital sea channel. But is the comparison with the 1967 closure of the Suez Canal and its impact on Colombo Port, relevant in the present context? The SL Ports Authority remarked that more ships were calling in Colombo Port owing to the need to take the longer route around Africa. SLPA chairman Keith Bernard reportedly said that container volumes at the SLPA owned terminal had seen an 80% growth. One way or another, given the volatility of the situation the long term outcome would seem unpredictable.

The resolve to protect Sri Lanka’s ‘economic rights’ in the far-away Red Sea also draws attention to economic deprivation nearer home, where Northern fishermen are protesting their loss of livelihood owing to the longstanding issue of poaching by Indian fishermen in Sri Lankan waters (not to mention severe degradation of the marine environment that continues unabated).Wouldn’t this be a more immediate task relating to ‘preventing harm to our economic endeavours in the Indian Ocean?’

Regional and global peace

At Trincomalee Airbase, the president referred to the significant role of Sri Lankans participating in UN Peacekeeping operations in Mali, an African state fighting terrorism, and pledged to extend Sri Lanka’s support to the UN on issues concerning regional or global peace. The ongoing military exercise against Houthis in the Red Sea however is not a UN operation, as in the case of Mali, but a campaign initiated by the US with a few allies. The Houthis say they are targeting ships linked to Israel in protest against its war on Gaza, and that they will stop their attacks no sooner Israel ends its onslaught.

The president has, at the same time, supported the call for a ceasefire in Gaza and statehood for Palestine, and made other sympathetic statements and moves such as setting up a ‘Children of Gaza Fund’ in aid of the war-affected children. But with the US facilitating the carnage in Gaza by continuing to supply arms to Israel, and vetoing Security Council resolutions for a humanitarian ceasefire, it is difficult to reconcile these sentiments with his eagerness to respond to the US call. Many analysts are of the view that the US-UK led strikes in the Red Sea are escalating the war, not helping to end it.

The US meanwhile having seen the ‘cracks in the armour’ of Sri Lanka’s professed Non Alignment, has lost no time pushing for deeper maritime and defence ties, in a location that has become a geopolitical flashpoint in the context of big power rivalry. US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Verma during a Feb 23-24 visit to Sri Lanka announced the donation of a fourth Coast Guard Cutter to the SL Navy.

“Very, very grateful for your leadership and participating in the “Operation Prosperity Guardian,” the efforts in the Red Sea,” he told the president. “Just again excited about the prospect of contributing to further ties, whether on maritime domain awareness, whether on counter terrorism training, whatever area we can do together to strengthen the peace, security and stability of the Indian Ocean region.”

It’s of interest that he also visited the West Container Terminal of Colombo Port, for the expansion of which the US recently announced a US$553 million loan through its International Development Finance Corporation. The fact that this finance is supplied to the Adani group which holds a 51% stake in the project has been downplayed in US communications. When the IDFC loan was announced ft.com reported “The US will lend $553mn for the development of a container terminal in Sri Lanka operated by Indian tycoon Gautam Adani as Washington works to counter China’s influence in the country.”

It should not be forgotten that India is designated a ‘major defence partner’ of the US – advancing defence trade and technology sharing with India ‘to a level at par with that of the United States’ closest allies and partners,’ according to a joint statement issued at the time. Sri Lanka has signed numerous agreements with India, with little transparency, in vital sectors that could radically alter the economic landscape in years ahead, potentially worsening the asymmetry in the Indo-Lanka power balance.

Ambassador Chung also attended the signing of an MoU between the US National Nuclear Security Administration and the Sri Lanka Navy at the Navy Headquarters on 28.02.24. According to an SLN statement “The MoU addressed bilateral cooperation to detect and interdict illicit trafficking in special nuclear material and other radioactive material through technical and methodological cooperation, including the installation and improvement of technical systems for the detection and identification of such material at border crossing control points of the democratic socialist republic of Sri Lanka.” ‘Border crossing control points’ would presumably refer to the country’s ports and airports, key strategic assets for any country.