Big power aspirations defining main contours of global political order

If the general expectation was that political multipolarity would be a chief defining feature of the post-Cold War global political order, this has not come to pass substantially. For around one and a half decades after the crumbling of the Cold War in the early nineties the US occupied global hegemon status but today it is no longer in a position to perpetuate this position on account of China, for example, emerging as a major world political, economic and military power.

However, it would be accurate to say that while we are not having full-blown political multipolarity, global political power continues to centre around a few major powers and their alliances. Their strategic moves and machinations, in the main, broadly define the contours of the present world political order. However, the same is not true of world economic power. Unlike political power, global economic power could be said to be increasingly multipolar, with the Asia-Pacific region in general and ASEAN in particular proving more than a match for Europe and North America, for instance. More so why an ‘Asian Age’ could be said to be upon us.

The complex picture that has emerged as regards global political power impresses on us the importance of the VUCA concept, that is, Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity, as a tool for understanding current realities. Comparatively, the Cold War decades offered us very few conceptual challenges. The Cold War and its compulsions, in the main, defined the world political order in those times. Shifts in international political power, for example, could have been understood in terms of the pressures and pulls of the power struggle between the main protagonists, the US, the USSR and their allies.

In contrast, what we have today is a world political situation that goes well beyond bipolarity and its comparatively simple contours, although political multipolarity is yet to emerge in significant measure. It is a much more nuanced political order that could not be understood in terms of neat conceptual categories. We are called upon to have a complex awareness of current political realities to meet the intellectual challenges of the present.

Currently, Central Asia is a focal point of international political tensions. A popular uprising against the Russian backed authorities in Kazakhstan has been apparently put down ruthlessly and Russian troops are a prominent presence in the country, helping in maintaining ‘law and order’.

However, Central Asia is more or less the backyard of both Russia and China and each of these powers is seeing the region as their exclusive sphere of influence. While both these major powers have a common interest in blunting the influence and power of the US and its allies globally, they are competing with each other for substantial power over the Central Asian region. However, China is at present opting to use economic means in the main, through its Belt and Road initiative, to achieve this aim to a degree.

In the case of Russia, it’s a question of harking back to the times when it had complete control over the region as an integral part of the erstwhile USSR. Judging by the present moves of Russia in the Ukraine and Belarus, it would like to have Central Asia too as a region of exclusive influence and control in consideration of what it describes as its security concerns. The perception that the US and NATO are closing in on it in Eastern Europe set the stage for Russia’s military intervention in the Crimea a few years ago and the same consideration is prompting Russia to bolster its influence and power in the Ukraine and Belarus. They are the veritable gateway to Germany and Western Europe and this factor enhances their appeal for Russia. Besides, they border former prominent states of the USSR, such as Poland, which are today in the NATO fold.

In the case of both Russia and China, Central Asia needs to be nurtured as a buffer against creeping Islamic fundamentalism and ethnic separatist forces that could have destabilizing consequences for themselves. With regard to the latter concern, there is an Uighur community presence in almost all the Central Asian countries and this is of particular concern for the Chinese. In this connection, the Chinese would like to have a close eye on Kyrgyztan and Tajikistan, which border it.

Likewise, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan border Afghanistan, and these states were perceived in the decade of the seventies by particularly Russia as possible conduits for Islamic fundamentalism. In fact, one of the reasons for the Russian invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 was the fear that it could be a bridgehead of Islamic fundamentalism. Accordingly, Afghanistan needed to be kept under control.

While legitimate security concerns may be driving the Russian political leadership to thus wield power and influence in countries and regions that are seen as central to Russia’s national interest, it needs to be also factored in that President Putin may be needing to bolster and expand his support base at home by being seen as working towards re-establishing Russia’s former prestige and power as the head of a federation of politically connected republics.

The same goes for President XI Jinping. Seeing the need for being in power for long, he too would like to be seen as working earnestly towards establishing China as a foremost world power. China’s moves over Taiwan need to be seen in this light. Xi could be seen as egged-on by the vision of a united China.

Curiously, although the Cold War is seen as history today, some of the expansionist designs and aspirations that drove its main protagonists seem to be living on. The US and its allies are bent on bolstering the power of their former spheres of influence in Europe, while Russia too could be said to be re-kindling its interest in the former constituent states of the USSR. China is looking to expand its global influence as well but its means to achieve this are mainly economic.

Thus, it could be seen that global politics are continuing to be driven by a few major powers, but in this renewed struggle for world political supremacy, the West could be said to be having the edge over the East by virtue of the fact that India and the US are firmer allies today. Needless to say, given its obvious strengths India has emerged as the state to be wooed by today’s expansionist powers.