Features
Beware of the Weather Gods
By Capt. Elmo Jayawardena
The one thing a pilot wishes for, when he lines up for take-off is a blue sky. He rolls his aeroplane down the runway with engines screaming at take-off power, and at rotational speed, he eases the aeroplane into the sky. Then he retracts the gear and the flaps, which is commonly called cleaning the aircraft and then sets the course in the direction of his destination. Whether it is an intercontinental 15-hour flight or a local one hour’s run from Ratmalana to Jaffna, the pilot has one ultra-important wish. That is to have a domed blue sky throughout his journey.
From the pencil thin line of a cirrus cloud in the upper sky to a bulging rain laden towering cumulus the sky gods await the unfortunate pilot who is a permission less intruder stubbornly trespassing their domain. The Gods are watching, Thor from Norse mythology, Zeus from the Greeks and God Indra the oldest known sky owner according to Hinduism. The belief that the sky belongs to the Gods is a phenomenon pre 1400 B.C with the Hittites worshiping God Indra from Anatolia which is in present day Turkey.
The weather gods have the most devastating weaponry to discourage anyone who wanted to fly. They control the winds, cross winds, wind shears and backing and veering gusting winds that have always been a bane to pilots. Then came rain, thunder and lightning, giving all kinds of turbulence which are perpetual hazards in the sky. Icing has always been deadly with the ultimate of freezing rain. Fog and mist were the cheating kind that fooled the pilots with their vertical good visibility and impossibly blinding slant visibility. The nuclear part of the weather gods’ armament was clear air turbulence that never showed on the radar to give a warning to the pilot.
All these and more are the weapons with which the weather gods taunted the best of pilots in their imitation to be half birds. How the weather gods wrote off aeroplanes and those who flew in them has been tragical. But sadly, today it has become a mere statistic.
Let’s go mythological as most of the advancements in technology have still not found a fool proof answer for a pilot to fly the sky with knowledge and operational skills that would defeat the weather gods. The one partial solution is to fly a blue sky, but such is an impossibility in modern day commercial aviation especially with long-haul flying.
Singapore Airlines had an incident over the Myanmar skies. They were cruising at 37,000 feet flying from London to Singapore. The aeroplane was a Boeing 777. I do not know who the pilots were or what happened to the aircraft path when it encountered turbulence. The Captain diverted to Bangkok and landed. One passenger sadly died of a heart attack and 30 others were injured. That part of the story is very sad. I do not know who lost his life and who were the 30 injured. They were all people who boarded a plane in London and sat watching TV and eating meals enjoying SIA’s renowned cabin service. The last thing on their minds would have been the aeroplane going into unusual attitude in turbulence, and the catastrophe that took place which sent the passengers from calm to chaos.
In my humble opinion, the Captain did the right thing. Controlled the plane and evaluated the options and took a safe decision to land as soon as possible. He headed for Bangkok. The aeroplane landed safely at Suvarnabhumi International Airport. SIA ground staff would have set in motion their instant-action game plans as soon as the passengers disembarked. Singapore Airlines is pretty good when it comes to handling emergencies. As I write this on Thursday May 23 morning, matters are being attended to especially with passengers who needed medical assistance and hospitalization in Bangkok. A relief plane had flown from Singapore to bring back the other passengers. They also sent a special team of SIA staff to Bangkok to take care of all arrangements. I do not know all the details, but I am sure SIA knows what to do when the chips are down.
The question then is how did a modern sophisticated jet aeroplane encounter such severe turbulence that injured 30 passengers and caused a fatal heart attack to a 73-year-old gentleman? It is the wrath of the weather gods that mere human beings will never totally understand. The anger of the sky is unbelievable and the devastation it can cause to an aeroplane is unimaginable to a layman. Yes, the planes are equipped with the most advanced weather radar systems enabling the pilots to meander through cloud filled skies.
Yet, aeroplanes encounter weather practically on every flight. How often do we see the seat belts sign coming on and the announcement being made “Ladies and gentlemen, please fasten your seat belts, as we are flying through turbulent weather”. Most times it’s just a bit of rock and roll and the plane clears the cloud, and the seat belt sign is switched off by the pilots. Sometimes the intensity of the ‘rock and roll’ can be alarming and vicious and the Captain then makes an announcement to suspend the services and for the crew to take their seats. All these are norms in flying.
But sometimes the weather gods can hit you with no warning at all. That is a phenomenon known as clear air turbulence. The radar does not show it and the sky can be clear without giving any warning to the unsuspecting pilot. That is possibly what happened to the SQ aeroplane in the Burmese sky. They may have hit some heavy clear air turbulence that would have made a mockery of their flight instruments. The auto pilot may have tripped, and the aeroplane would have moved to an unusual altitude. I have no clue about what happened in that cockpit of SQ 321. I am only giving some plausible explanation to a layman reader to get an idea of what may have happened.
The pilots would have reacted instantly and correctly and brought the aeroplane under control. All this would have happened so fast and once the plane came out of the turbulence, the Captain would have ascertained from the cabin crew whether anyone was injured. With an affirmative answer the Captain would have decided to fly to an en route alternate and the most suitable would have been Bangkok.
Flying in a cloud filled sky is not something new to a pilot. Any pilot with four stripes would have battled with adverse weather more times than he or she cared to remember. Too many pilots have met their end in aeroplanes killed by the weather gods who took advantage of the fallibility of mere mortals and their man made machines. The one safety net the pilot had to battle weather is pure preparedness and continuous situational awareness. Of course, ‘D team’ attitude to flying is indeed a humbling advantage for a pilot to adopt. It is always better not to be in the A team or the B team or the C team when flying. The trick was to fly in the D team, nothing fancy, just safe from departure to destination. That is the best commandment to follow when flying.
In the years gone by I used to fly as a co-pilot on old Dakota planes. This was the 70s and I flew for Air Ceylon. The Dakota was a second world war relic and was a wonderful old workhorse. It had no radar but the captains we flew with were veterans who scanned the skies with their naked eyes and flew the Dakotas in the worst of monsoon rains. The years rolled, and I crawled up to fly big jets and was instructing the young to fly. Of course, by that time we always had two radar sets with colour codes. The clouds in our path were depicted in three colours. Green for mild clouds and amber for medium hazards and red for absolute terror clouds filled with turbulence.
I taught my students to fly the weather radar remembering the story of Goldilocks. The red area on the screen was the father bear clouds, the amber was mother bear clouds and the green was the baby bear clouds. Forget the father bear and the mother bear, they could kill you. And that green bastard of a baby bear is vicious enough to kick you out of the sky. I survived.
SQ 321 and the incident over the Myanmar airspace has woken a lot of people to the possible hazards of weather encountered by aeroplanes. King Ravana is the oldest pilot we know who flew the Dandumonara more than 5,000 years ago. From him to the modern-day airline pilot, both inclusive, all would have battled the weather gods every time they went into the sky.
Nothing has changed, the weather gods are still dominating the yonder blue, and on a daily basis they throw varying obstacles to those who fly. Most times such challenges are manageable. The pilot and his sophisticated machine are capable. They are backed by a vast safety system that monitors and protects aviation and the planes that fly in the sky. This is world-wide and very well organized. That is why flying is safe and people fly.
Off and on the weather gods get mischievous and go beyond the beyond. But the pilots and the vast aviation system manage to balance the act and live to fly another day. That is the norm, of course there are exceptions.
elmojay1@gmail.com
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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