Basil’s Sirasa interview riddle

Days after Basil Rajapaksa’s return to Sri Lanka after his sojourn in the U.S. where he enjoys citizenship, the Sri Lanka Podu Jana Peramuna’s national organizer figured in a television talk show. Here he clearly expressed the opinion that Ranil Wickremesinghe is the best man to take this country forward but did not indicate whether it was a personal viewpoint or that of the SLPP. Nor did he say his party would back RW’s candidature. He also said that preferably, the parliamentary election that is due next year should precede the presidential election that is constitutionally mandated to be held this year. A simple majority in Parliament, which the SLPP still commands, makes that possible.

With the ongoing election buzz it is inevitable that Rajapaksa’s latest statements attracted national attention. The presidential election is constitutionally mandated to be held between September and October this year. Although Wickremesinghe has not yet personally declared his candidature, all signs thus far are that he will be running. Many of his intimates like former finance minister Ravi Karunanayake are clearly on record that RW will be a candidate. Other UNP functionaries have also said as much.

It’s only days since a member of the green the inner circle, Akila Viraj Kariyawasam, assistant leader of the UNP, organized in his home base of Kuliyapitiya what looked like the president’s election campaign launch where RW himself was present. Also Ronald Perera, touted to be the president’s campaign manager, resigned his position as chairman of the Bank of Ceylon although he continues to wear the hat of Insurance Corporation chairman.

During his talk show appearance, Basil Rajapaksa declared that RW has the required qualities to lead the nation. But on the flip side, the UNP lacked the voter support and organizational capability to win an election. According to the pink bush shirt clad and slipper-wearing Basil, only his own party and the JVP/NPP had countrywide organizations while only the SLPP and Sajith Premadasa’s SJB had people’s support. Thus his own party had two of the required qualifications, he said, implying that they lacked the right leader to carry the country forward.

Basil admitted that while his party had held the two top slots, the presidency and the prime ministry, they had failed to do the needful for the benefit of the nation. He conveniently claimed that the SLPP had “sacrificed” these positions for the sake of the country without admitting the Rajapaksas were forced to flee by the forces unleashed by the aragalaya. Rajapaksa opined that the three necessary qualifications, organizational strength, people’s support and leadership ability should combine to select the next leader. Strangely BR does not seem to believe that the JVP/NPP commands the widely perceived public support which in his view remains with the SLPP and the SJB.

There will, no doubt, be buyers for his argument that holding a presidential election first followed by a parliamentary election will benefit the winner of the first contest. The pithy Sinhala idiom vaasi paththata hoiya or hurrah for the winning side says it all. The political parties know this very well. That is why the UNP, entrenched in power since independence chose three day elections with counting after each day’s voting so that strong candidates may be fielded on the first day, the not so strong on the second and the weak candidates on the last day. But the SWRD Bandaranaike wave whacked that logic for a six with the comfortable enthronement of a so-called people’s government. But in terms of the percentage of national votes polled, the greens did not do as badly as the seat count in parliament indicated.

Basil also rightly said that the concentration of too much power in too few hands is undesirable. Checks and balances are necessary factors in the equation. JR Jayewardene mistakenly believed that proportional representation (PR) replacing the previous Westminster-style first past the post elections will prevent landslides such as 1956, 1970 and 1977. But this did not happen as planned. Remember the last election where the UNP was reduced to zero elected seats and its leader had to belatedly limp into parliament on his party’s single national list slot. Yet the near impossible happened with the gods smiling down on Ranil Wickremesinghe. The country is now looking for a mix of first past the post and PR but whether any such arrangement will be possible before parliamentary elections next year will remain an open question.

The SLPP’s grouse that they do not have enough ministers in the RW government prevails. Basil complained that there are several provinces from which his party has no ministers to work for the people. Wickremesinghe, under pressure of public opinion, refused to cave into SLPP demands for expanding the cabinet. What Basil and Mahinda Rajapaksa discussed with President Wickremesinghe a few days ago is not in the public domain save for some speculative reports.

While Ministers like Harin Fernando are talking of cards up their sleeves to be played in May, it is hard to conceive the possibility of a RW-SLPP-SJB alliance to take on the JVP/NPP as a common force. Basil Rajapaksa’s Face to Face interview with Sirasa threw up many riddles for which the answers should be forthcoming in the coming weeks. But one thing is certain. Nearly all incumbent MPs will be driven by self-interest of returning to parliment.