Basil gone, Gota going after one term, Ranil goes on as crisis PM

by Rajan Philips

“I can’t go as a failed president”

– Gotabaya Rajapaksa

“I am the crisis Prime Minister”

– Ranil Wickremesinghe

“Our family is better at politics than at governance”

– Basil Rajapaksa

Last week has been full of political moves. But none of them had any impact on the economic crisis. None was meant to. Every move was self-serving political jostling. The week began with the usually uncommunicative President opening himself to Colombo’s foreign media last Monday and offering somewhat of a resigned ultimatum. “I can’t go as a failed president,” he said. “I have been given a mandate for five years. I will not contest again.” The President’s statement is at once a soft ultimatum, an admission of failure and resignation to being a one-term President. All of which are significant victories for Aragalaya.

Remarkably, only a few national media outlets carried the President’s interview that was extensively reported by Bloomberg, calling it “a wide ranging interview.” Many outlets did not report the interview news story at all but gave prominence to the usual anti-aragalaya musings of so called ‘nationalist lawmakers’ and ex-ministers like Sarath Weerasekera and Wimal Weerawansa.

The President’s interview was followed by the Prime Minister who in fact has been making statement after statement almost to the point of pre-occupational rambling. Last week before addressing parliament yet again, Ranil Wickremesinghe called himself “the crisis Prime Minister” in an interview with NDTV. Champika Ranawaka tried to steal some limelight midweek by announcing that he will switch from SJB and be an ‘independent’ MP in parliament, calling for an interim national government but vowing not to be a Minister in the current Administration.

Thursday was all Basil-day, as Basil Rajapaksa made headlines with the brother of all resignations. The younger Rajapaksa has been at the centre of media criticisms for allegedly trying to scuttle even the highly watered-down 21A because it includes a provision to bar dual citizens from being MPs. Basil, who flew over the ocean from California to Colombo, finally threw in the towel and decided to leave parliament but not politics.

Basil Rajapaksa clarified his departure as ‘retiring from governance’ but not from active politics, and added this gem of a nugget for good measure: “I think we can see that our family is better at politics than at governance.” Then he showed his absolute ignorance of not only Indian history and politics but also Sri Lankan history and politics by comparing the Rajapaksa family in Sri Lanka to Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) in India.

Friday’s breaking news is that business tycoon Dhammika Perera will be replacing Basil Rajapaksa as the National List MP for the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) in parliament. Mr. Perera may or may not prove to be a worthy member of parliament, but the question is what special skills he will bring to bear for addressing the current challenges. Earlier, there was much talk about bringing professional economists as National List MPs into parliament and taking them into cabinet as key ministers to deal with the current crisis. But professional economists do not carry the same political IOUs as business tycoons. And this is hardly the time for cashing political IOUs when there is no cash except by printing.

What lies ahead

The President’s delayed exit and Basil Rajapaksa’s immediate resignation add to the growing list of victories for Sri Lanka’s Aragalaya. Looking ahead, most pundits will likely weigh in advising Aragalaya protesters that they should accept the President’s offer (some worthies may even consider it magnanimous), and not insist on having the pound of presidential flesh by way of calling for his resignation by next week. The way Basil did last week.

Insofar as Aragalaya is a spontaneous eruption in response to unbearable objective conditions, it is difficult to see who in Aragalaya is to be advised, and who could take advice for Aragalaya. Those who rush to advise Aragalaya should also see if they have any advice to offer to the President – how he should conduct himself and what goals he could set for himself for the remainder of his one-term presidency. Without this President and the manner of his presidency, there would not have been any cause for, or any outcome like, Aragalaya. In the same way, the future course of Aragalaya will be shaped by the two crises facing the country and how the President, the Prime Minister and Parliament deal with these crises in the weeks and months ahead.

Between the President and his Prime Minister, the President hardly says anything on the economic crisis and the Prime Minister hardly stops saying too much about the two crises – the economic and the political. Even in his “wide ranging interview” with the foreign media, the President did not say anything substantial on the economic crisis after indicating that he plans to serve out his first term. He is already a failed President and if he wants that tag removed before he leaves office, he should say something about what he is going to do differently over the next two years, from what he has been doing over the last two.

As for the political crisis, and its constitutional implications, the President pontificated: “Either the presidency should be abolished or the parliament is kept out of governing. You can’t have a mixed system. I experienced this and now know. People may blame me when I tell this but that’s the truth. What is this executive (powers) of the president? My personal opinion is that if you have a presidency he must have full powers. Otherwise abolish executive presidency and go for full Westminster-style parliament.”

This is profound presidential confusion. What power is he lacking as President that has led Sri Lanka to its current crisis? Or in what way has Parliament, where his SLPP was having two-thirds majority, interfered with the exercise of his powers that he could not prevent Sri Lanka from sliding to its current mess? Obviously, the President doesn’t get it that there cannot be any system, purebred or hybrid, without having an elected body to pass laws, usually called parliament. Parliament cannot be kept out of governing in a democracy.

If the President has failed to positively engage the nation by his proclivity for saying too little right and doing too much wrong, the Prime Minister, to his manner born, is putting people to sleep by saying too much on everything. The Island (June 9) editorial, “All mouth, no action,” captured well the essence of the current dyarchy: “President Gotabaya Rajapaksa keeps making U-turns. He has apparently left the task of governing the country entirely to Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, who seems intent on setting a world record by making the highest number of speeches and special statements on the economy.”

JVP Leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake has gone to the extent of accusing the Prime Minister of “exaggerating the economic crisis for his own political agenda.” Mr. Dissanayake may have a point in that the PM’s repeated statements about impending supply shortages and monetary crisis are driving people to join long queues and withdrawing bank deposits, thereby aggravating the crisis to be far worse it needs to be. But it would be a mistake for Mr. Dissanayake to even implicitly suggest that the crisis is less than what it is.

There cannot be any exaggeration when Government of Sri Lanka asks United Nations help to mobilize international assistance to meet the country’s urgent needs in health care, food and agriculture, and emergency protection. The UN agency in Sri Lanka has already launched a Humanitarian Needs and Priorities (HNP) Plan, calling for US$47.2 million for providing assistance to 1.7 million people affected by the current crisis. An estimated 5.7 million women, children and men are in need of immediate life-saving assistance. These are stark realities.

It is now a month after Ranil Wickremesinghe became Prime Minister. Apart from his plethora of statements and announcement of committees, there is no change in the country’s day to day economic life. It is no exaggeration to say that without India’s almost daily shipment of supplies, Sri Lanka will not be able to meet its daily requirements of essentials. Is India going to be the sole source for essential supplies until agreements are reached with the IMF? Talks with IMF take time and both the IMF and the World Bank have indicated that no financing arrangement will be possible until an acceptable macroeconomic framework is in place.

What is worrisome is the lack of pre-occupation within the government on economic matters, and the business-as-usual mode of operation on the political front. Even the reported replacement of Basil Rajapaksa by Dhammika Perera is more business-as-usual politics than economic crisis management. After all the talk about a lean and diverse cabinet of ministers, the new Ranil-Rajapaksa cabinet continues to keep expanding and it is inclusive not of any special talent but of only old bandicoots.

With the President saying that he intends to serve out his one term as President, the SLPP MPs may think that they are safe for the rest of their tenure as MPs. They may even fancy their chances in the next elections – they can claim credit if the economy turns around, or blame Ranil Wickremesinghe if it doesn’t. In this set up, it is difficult to envisage significant constitutional changes. If at all the watered down version of 21A that Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe is championing may get passed. Then it will be even more business as usual politics.

But everything can change on a dime depending on how the economic situation unfolds. The situation is not going to get better any time soon, and it will likely get worse than what it is now. The people when they have to suffer more will not remember kindly the opportunities that are being missed by the Ranil-Rajapaksa dyarchy. Aragalaya will rise again. By then it would be time for Aragalaya protesters and the political parties who support their cause, to set their sights beyond the current parliament and to transform parliament itself by weeding out the old and corrupt MPs and replacing them with young reform MPs.