Features
Basil gone, Gota going after one term, Ranil goes on as crisis PM
by Rajan Philips
“I can’t go as a failed president”
– Gotabaya Rajapaksa
“I am the crisis Prime Minister”
– Ranil Wickremesinghe
“Our family is better at politics than at governance”
– Basil Rajapaksa
Last week has been full of political moves. But none of them had any impact on the economic crisis. None was meant to. Every move was self-serving political jostling. The week began with the usually uncommunicative President opening himself to Colombo’s foreign media last Monday and offering somewhat of a resigned ultimatum. “I can’t go as a failed president,” he said. “I have been given a mandate for five years. I will not contest again.” The President’s statement is at once a soft ultimatum, an admission of failure and resignation to being a one-term President. All of which are significant victories for Aragalaya.
Remarkably, only a few national media outlets carried the President’s interview that was extensively reported by Bloomberg, calling it “a wide ranging interview.” Many outlets did not report the interview news story at all but gave prominence to the usual anti-aragalaya musings of so called ‘nationalist lawmakers’ and ex-ministers like Sarath Weerasekera and Wimal Weerawansa.
The President’s interview was followed by the Prime Minister who in fact has been making statement after statement almost to the point of pre-occupational rambling. Last week before addressing parliament yet again, Ranil Wickremesinghe called himself “the crisis Prime Minister” in an interview with NDTV. Champika Ranawaka tried to steal some limelight midweek by announcing that he will switch from SJB and be an ‘independent’ MP in parliament, calling for an interim national government but vowing not to be a Minister in the current Administration.
Thursday was all Basil-day, as Basil Rajapaksa made headlines with the brother of all resignations. The younger Rajapaksa has been at the centre of media criticisms for allegedly trying to scuttle even the highly watered-down 21A because it includes a provision to bar dual citizens from being MPs. Basil, who flew over the ocean from California to Colombo, finally threw in the towel and decided to leave parliament but not politics.
Basil Rajapaksa clarified his departure as ‘retiring from governance’ but not from active politics, and added this gem of a nugget for good measure: “I think we can see that our family is better at politics than at governance.” Then he showed his absolute ignorance of not only Indian history and politics but also Sri Lankan history and politics by comparing the Rajapaksa family in Sri Lanka to Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) in India.
Friday’s breaking news is that business tycoon Dhammika Perera will be replacing Basil Rajapaksa as the National List MP for the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) in parliament. Mr. Perera may or may not prove to be a worthy member of parliament, but the question is what special skills he will bring to bear for addressing the current challenges. Earlier, there was much talk about bringing professional economists as National List MPs into parliament and taking them into cabinet as key ministers to deal with the current crisis. But professional economists do not carry the same political IOUs as business tycoons. And this is hardly the time for cashing political IOUs when there is no cash except by printing.
What lies ahead
The President’s delayed exit and Basil Rajapaksa’s immediate resignation add to the growing list of victories for Sri Lanka’s Aragalaya. Looking ahead, most pundits will likely weigh in advising Aragalaya protesters that they should accept the President’s offer (some worthies may even consider it magnanimous), and not insist on having the pound of presidential flesh by way of calling for his resignation by next week. The way Basil did last week.
Insofar as Aragalaya is a spontaneous eruption in response to unbearable objective conditions, it is difficult to see who in Aragalaya is to be advised, and who could take advice for Aragalaya. Those who rush to advise Aragalaya should also see if they have any advice to offer to the President – how he should conduct himself and what goals he could set for himself for the remainder of his one-term presidency. Without this President and the manner of his presidency, there would not have been any cause for, or any outcome like, Aragalaya. In the same way, the future course of Aragalaya will be shaped by the two crises facing the country and how the President, the Prime Minister and Parliament deal with these crises in the weeks and months ahead.
Between the President and his Prime Minister, the President hardly says anything on the economic crisis and the Prime Minister hardly stops saying too much about the two crises – the economic and the political. Even in his “wide ranging interview” with the foreign media, the President did not say anything substantial on the economic crisis after indicating that he plans to serve out his first term. He is already a failed President and if he wants that tag removed before he leaves office, he should say something about what he is going to do differently over the next two years, from what he has been doing over the last two.
As for the political crisis, and its constitutional implications, the President pontificated: “Either the presidency should be abolished or the parliament is kept out of governing. You can’t have a mixed system. I experienced this and now know. People may blame me when I tell this but that’s the truth. What is this executive (powers) of the president? My personal opinion is that if you have a presidency he must have full powers. Otherwise abolish executive presidency and go for full Westminster-style parliament.”
This is profound presidential confusion. What power is he lacking as President that has led Sri Lanka to its current crisis? Or in what way has Parliament, where his SLPP was having two-thirds majority, interfered with the exercise of his powers that he could not prevent Sri Lanka from sliding to its current mess? Obviously, the President doesn’t get it that there cannot be any system, purebred or hybrid, without having an elected body to pass laws, usually called parliament. Parliament cannot be kept out of governing in a democracy.
If the President has failed to positively engage the nation by his proclivity for saying too little right and doing too much wrong, the Prime Minister, to his manner born, is putting people to sleep by saying too much on everything. The Island (June 9) editorial, “All mouth, no action,” captured well the essence of the current dyarchy: “President Gotabaya Rajapaksa keeps making U-turns. He has apparently left the task of governing the country entirely to Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, who seems intent on setting a world record by making the highest number of speeches and special statements on the economy.”
JVP Leader Anura Kumara Dissanayake has gone to the extent of accusing the Prime Minister of “exaggerating the economic crisis for his own political agenda.” Mr. Dissanayake may have a point in that the PM’s repeated statements about impending supply shortages and monetary crisis are driving people to join long queues and withdrawing bank deposits, thereby aggravating the crisis to be far worse it needs to be. But it would be a mistake for Mr. Dissanayake to even implicitly suggest that the crisis is less than what it is.
There cannot be any exaggeration when Government of Sri Lanka asks United Nations help to mobilize international assistance to meet the country’s urgent needs in health care, food and agriculture, and emergency protection. The UN agency in Sri Lanka has already launched a Humanitarian Needs and Priorities (HNP) Plan, calling for US$47.2 million for providing assistance to 1.7 million people affected by the current crisis. An estimated 5.7 million women, children and men are in need of immediate life-saving assistance. These are stark realities.
It is now a month after Ranil Wickremesinghe became Prime Minister. Apart from his plethora of statements and announcement of committees, there is no change in the country’s day to day economic life. It is no exaggeration to say that without India’s almost daily shipment of supplies, Sri Lanka will not be able to meet its daily requirements of essentials. Is India going to be the sole source for essential supplies until agreements are reached with the IMF? Talks with IMF take time and both the IMF and the World Bank have indicated that no financing arrangement will be possible until an acceptable macroeconomic framework is in place.
What is worrisome is the lack of pre-occupation within the government on economic matters, and the business-as-usual mode of operation on the political front. Even the reported replacement of Basil Rajapaksa by Dhammika Perera is more business-as-usual politics than economic crisis management. After all the talk about a lean and diverse cabinet of ministers, the new Ranil-Rajapaksa cabinet continues to keep expanding and it is inclusive not of any special talent but of only old bandicoots.
With the President saying that he intends to serve out his one term as President, the SLPP MPs may think that they are safe for the rest of their tenure as MPs. They may even fancy their chances in the next elections – they can claim credit if the economy turns around, or blame Ranil Wickremesinghe if it doesn’t. In this set up, it is difficult to envisage significant constitutional changes. If at all the watered down version of 21A that Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe is championing may get passed. Then it will be even more business as usual politics.
But everything can change on a dime depending on how the economic situation unfolds. The situation is not going to get better any time soon, and it will likely get worse than what it is now. The people when they have to suffer more will not remember kindly the opportunities that are being missed by the Ranil-Rajapaksa dyarchy. Aragalaya will rise again. By then it would be time for Aragalaya protesters and the political parties who support their cause, to set their sights beyond the current parliament and to transform parliament itself by weeding out the old and corrupt MPs and replacing them with young reform MPs.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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