ASEAN Conundrum

by Nilantha Ilangamuwa

Despite the clamor of numerous advocates, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) must swiftly and resolutely confront critical issues to establish its position as the dominant force shaping the future of Asia. Unlike other Asian organizations, ASEAN holds invaluable lessons to impart. The Asian region has been marred by the ruthless expansion of powers, serving as a formidable battleground haunted by a grim and harrowing past, riddled with unresolved genocides and crimes against humanity.

To compound matters, individuals of Asian origin, now in influential positions within Western nations, persistently view Asian countries through the narrow lens of Western interests, prioritizing their own needs over ours and offering solutions that may not align with the best interests of Asians. The age-old strategy of divide and conquer continues to plague this region, as it does others. Hence, the path ahead for ASEAN demands a relentless commitment to learning from its history, replete with betrayals and manipulations. Only by embracing its past and heeding the lessons it holds can ASEAN rise above and propel itself towards a future of true strength and leadership in shaping the destiny of Asia.

While ASEAN strives to make progress, other regional organizations have faltered. SAARC has been crippled by the longstanding hostility between India and Pakistan, failing to convene annual meetings for several years. Similarly, the Non-Aligned Movement has devolved into an empty platform, filled with hollow rhetoric that squanders time and resources. However, the conflict of opinions between ASEAN and the Non-Aligned Movement intensifies; the specter of an Asian nightmare looms large. The recent statement released after the meeting of ASEAN’s foreign affairs ministers holds immense significance.

“We are seriously disappointed over the failure of the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) to update paragraphs on the South China Sea in the Final Document of the Ministerial Meeting of the Coordinating Bureau of the Non-Aligned Movement in Baku,” declared ASEAN. The NAM must not only pay lip service but also staunchly uphold the core principles enshrined in the Bandung Principles, demonstrating an unwavering commitment to fostering peace, friendship, and cooperation among regional countries. This inexcusable display of disunity among Asian nations demands immediate and unwavering action on critical issues.

The challenges confronting ASEAN and the broader Asian region demand an unprecedented level of resolve and unyielding cooperation. Drawing from the indelible lessons of history, confronting the harsh realities of the present, and forging a resolute and unwavering unity, ASEAN can and must rise as a commanding and formidable force, charting the course of Asia’s destiny for the unmitigated betterment of all its people. The time for decisive action is now; any hint of hesitation not only risks repeating the grave mistakes of the past but also perpetuates the insidious dominance of external powers over the sovereign future of our region.

The paramount concern lies in safeguarding the Asian region from becoming a mere pawn of powerful states or their strategically established organizations seeking to expand their dominance. It is imperative to proactively devise a comprehensive strategic plan to thwart such machinations. We must exercise utmost caution regarding the potential hazards that can emerge, not only in trade and economy but also within the nations of the region and the military activities in the seas of region.

The success of ASEAN member countries in the market hinges on their adeptness in dealing with China and strategically engaging Western markets. To achieve this, both ASEAN member countries and those at the protectionist level must unite under collective programs. As unanimously agreed upon, this region should continue to be a bastion of peace, seeking peaceful resolutions rather than flexing military dominance in conflict zones.

However, the ominous proliferation of foreign military bases across the region and the manipulation of socio-political structures of countries surrounding China for potential wars against it paint a disheartening picture, leaving little room for optimism. The annihilation of the multipolar world order to make way for a unipolar world order stands as a stark reminder of the relentless pursuit of power. When a superpower perceives its influence gradually waning, it is unhesitant in implementing countermeasures, as history has taught us through millennia of human civilization.

Maintaining military bases in the countries around China underscores the strategic conflict between the two powers, a conflict that could escalate into a war when least expected. Such a war would not only plunge China but also numerous Asians who have painstakingly rebuilt their lives from the aftermath of past conflicts back into the darkness of history. This may not manifest as a direct conflict between the two countries, but rather a proxy war akin to the current situation in Ukraine.

In recent years, the failure of attempting separate implementations of soft power and hard power has starkly revealed itself, resulting in a surge of proxy wars. States now sponsor non-state proxies as fifth columns to undermine rival powers, supporting factions engaged in civil wars, sponsoring terrorists and insurgent groups. The historical backdrop of the Cold War era exemplifies the risks, as proxy warfare became an attractive alternative to conventional conflict, yet it still brought grave consequences. With the relentless advancement of artificial intelligence, the future’s strategic conflicts with China remain unpredictable, adding an additional layer of uncertainty to the evolving landscape of technological capabilities and potential conflicts.

To safeguard the Asian region from becoming a mere playground for superpowers, decisive action and international cooperation are indispensable. Only by collectively fortifying our sovereignty and championing peace can we forge a path towards a future that empowers the region to shape its destiny, free from the manipulations of external forces.

The sheer scale of the U.S. military presence in East Asia is staggering, with a striking 313 military base sites alone, and this is just one part of a vast global network encompassing approximately 750 U.S. military bases spread across 80 countries and colonies worldwide. This extensive network stands unparalleled in the annals of history, surpassing any other nation, empire, or people.

Conversely, China maintains only a modest count of around eight foreign military bases, with one located in Djibouti and others established on human-made islands in the South China Sea.

The significance of strategic competition from a rising and ambitious China was notably underscored by US Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns during the annual Ditchley lecture this year. He emphasized that rise of China represents one of the three key features upon which U.S. success hinges. Subsequently, the United Kingdom’s foreign intelligence service, Secret Intelligence Service commonly known as MI6, echoed this sentiment, declaring China as the primary challenge to realizing their ambitions. Richard Moore, who is the head of MI6, revealed last week during his speech in Prague that they are devoting increasing resources to address the implications of China’s growing global importance.

In light of these developments, it is imperative that ASEAN demonstrates an unwavering and assertive commitment to resolving conflicts through resolute and diplomatic means—now more crucial than ever before. We cannot tolerate the unchecked proliferation of foreign military bases across the Asian region any longer. When these formidable forces delineate its adversary, smaller nations must unite against overwhelming odds. Our nations must unite and take decisive action to put an end to these bases, which merely serve as tools for advancing Western interests, fueling wars, and testing lethal weaponry, all while neglecting the pressing issues of climate change, man-made disasters, poverty, education, and healthcare.

Instead, our focus should be on prioritizing the sharing of technology to combat these pressing challenges, thereby fostering prosperity and well-being for our people. We must firmly advocate for dialogue, negotiation, and peaceful cooperation as the cornerstones of our approach. Through this, ASEAN will not only contribute to fostering unparalleled stability and tranquility in the region but also ensure that conflicts are thwarted and tensions effectively deescalated.

As the true guardians of peace in Asia, our united efforts to address this escalating situation will undoubtedly play a pivotal role in shaping the future of our continent. We must stand unwavering in our resolve, rejecting any notion of becoming a human laboratory for testing modern technologies. Our pursuit is of a better, harmonious tomorrow for all Asian nations—one that champions peace, prosperity, and progress while firmly rejecting the notion of being a testing ground for others’ interests. Devoid of this essence, the notion of an Asian century becomes nothing more than a fantasy.

[ The writer can be reached at ilangamuwa@gmail.com]