Aragalaya machine being re-cranked?

Although the country situation has somewhat eased after the crippling fuel and gas shortages were resolved to a great extent, how long supplies will be maintained is an open question. That, of course, is totally dependent on the country’s ability to pay for fuel imports. There was a somewhat reassuring comment the other day from Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe that we are now, touch wood, able to fund our essential imports and that we can survive without bridging finance. The recently implemented QR system for equitably distributing available fuel stocks to as many consumers as possible has been acclaimed as a forward movement. Many, if not most, would agree with this in the context of the kilometers long petrol/diesel queues no longer being a feature in our evening television news bulletins. But the question arises on why it took as long as it did to implement such a decision. Clearly it came far too late.

It is not necessary to labor the fact that shortages spawn rackets. A shortage as big as our recent experience over fuel naturally created massive rackets in the shape of a black-market in petrol and diesel. Three-wheelers on which a considerable proportion of the workforce depend on for a living were widely blamed for what happened. But it must be said in fairness to the tuk-tuk drivers that in the context of a critical shortage of fuel supplies which made it impossible for them to offer their vehicles for hire, they were compelled to make a living by black marketing petrol. It made more sense for them to spend most of their time in the endless queues, tank up, sell whatever they got at a premium, and rejoin the queue. This was obviously more profitable than burning petrol cruising for hires. Who can blame these people, many of whom obtained their vehicles on expensive lease arrangements, from making the best of a bad situation.

Hopefully all that is water under the bridge. Although the fuel supply disaster is no longer as visible as it was as far as motorists are concerned, farmers and fishermen remain affected. The former continue to be starved of, or at best inadequately supplied, with fuel for their agricultural machinery. As is usual in this country, promises have been made but have not been honored provoking protests. Fishermen too are in a bind with no kerosene, mainly, to go out to sea. Their protests are now becoming more strident. Beached fishing craft have had the obvious result of rocketing fish prices sending consumers reeling. A kilo of the once inexpensive salayas now costs up to Rs. 900. Chicken, egg and dried fish prices have gone through the roof and the poor compelled to drop animal protein from their diet. Dhal (lentils), an excellent substitute vegetable protein, too has become so expensive that even the middle classes find it too costly to include in their food baskets.

While the cascading effects of the fuel shortage that touched most aspects of the national economy have now eased somewhat, consumers can hope for some respite from the galloping inflation that has been this country’s lot for the past several months. President Ranil Wickremesinghe, in the course of a wide-ranging interview with The Economist has gone on record that he worries “especially on food.” Not just Wickremesinghe but nobody would want people to go hungry as is happening now. The president admitted that the middle class was expanding but the government has been compelled to cut on the living standards of middle income families. People above the poverty line have fallen below it. He restated that taxes will have to be raised and wealth and capital taxes are on the way.

But nobody can deny that equity, the basic tenet of taxation, is totally absent in Sri Lanka. Nobody has credibly justified why tax exemptions on emoluments, pensions, duty free vehicle permits etc. are granted to public servants, parliamentarians and other preferred animals while private sector employees are taxed on similar incomes. The nouveau riche displaying their affluence is all too visible via the high-end vehicles they ride and the crowds five star dining venues attract even during these hard times. Many such people do not pay income tax and they are allowed to get off Scot free while squeezed lemons with tax files are further squeezed.

It wasn’t very long ago that Wickremesinghe told the Wall Street Journal that he did ot think the time was opportune for former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to return to Sri Lanka. He believed his predecessor’s return will inflame passions. Since then GR who first fled to the Maldives, then to Singapore and in now in Thailand is anxious to return home, possibly because he has nowhere else to kick his heels while awaiting the outcome of an application to return to the US where he once held citizenship. He renounced it to run for president but has requested permanent residence on the ground of his wife’s citizenship of the United States. Whether the U.S. will permit our former president to butter his bread on both sides remains to be seen. Meanwhile the SLPP that elected RW to serve the balance of GR’s term wants the incumbent president to facilitate his predecessor’s return.

Colombo helped Rajapaksa with his Thai visa but with another confrontation between the Inter University Students Federation (IUSF) and law enforcers on Thursday, complete with teargas and water cannons, whether Wickremesinghe will still feel the time opportune for GR’s return remains to be seen. Aragalaya has certainly lost steam but attempts are afoot to crank up the machine. How much support it can muster remains an open question for the time being.