News
An October Surprise
By Gwynne Dyer
An ‘October Surprise’ in the United States is now almost inevitable, because that will be Donald Trump’s last chance to get re-elected legitimately. He might try to cling to office even if he loses the vote, but it would be a lot easier and neater if he actually won a majority in the Electoral College on 3 November.
‘October Surprise’ is the American political term for a fake crisis, usually involving foreigners, that is ‘discovered’ by a president trailing badly in the polls in the last few weeks before an election. All other issues are forgotten, Americans rally around the flag, and the incumbent wins on a surge of patriotism. Or that’s the theory, at least.
The same thing happens elsewhere too, of course, and not necessarily in October. That’s when it needs to happen in to win a US presidential election, but there’s a ‘July Surprise’ happening in Belarus right now (because the election there is set for 9 August).
Last week Alexander Lukashenko, the strongman who rules Belarus, ‘discovered’ Russian mercenaries in his country. They were unarmed and on their way to Istanbul, but Lukashenko says there is a plot: “So far there is no open warfare, no shooting, the trigger has not yet been pulled, but an attempt to organise a massacre in the centre of Minsk is already obvious.” Only I can save our country! Vote for me!
Trump will need something like that because otherwise the coronavirus is going to kill him politically. This was not true as recently as early June, because up until then the United States was not performing especially badly in dealing with the pandemic.
It LOOKED a lot worse because of Trump’s bizarre behaviour – the endless, shameless lies, the narcissism, the suggestions that people should inject bleach, etc. – but in terms of Covid-19 deaths per million people the American fatality rate was still lower than any other major Western countries except Germany and Canada.
The United States was late to go into lockdown, but so were they all, at least compared to most Asian countries. Until recently, if you were a Trump supporter, you could still believe he was doing a good job.
It was Trump’s rush to end the lockdown, not all the earlier nonsense, that did the real damage. He believed that he would lose the election if the economy didn’t revive, but by opening up too fast he managed to revive the pandemic at the same time.
The numbers tell the tale. This week America will record its 160,000th death from Covid-19. That’s almost a quarter of all the coronavirus deaths in the world. Much worse, US deaths are still going up while deaths elsewhere in the developed world have fallen steeply. That’s almost entirely due to Trump.
Take Canada, for example. It’s very similar to the US in economy and demography, but different in social and political terms. Canada has universal health care and a much less drastic divide between the rich and the rest, for example, which probably explains why America’s cumulative death rate per million is 484, while Canada’s is only 237.
The history is therefore an American death rate twice as high as Canada’s: not great, but structurally inevitable. By now, however, Canada has managed to get its deaths down to 10 a day, whereas America is back up around a 1,000 a day.
Even allowing for Canada’s much smaller population, that is 10 times worse. This is what coming out of lockdown too early did to the United States, and it is all down to Donald Trump.
The pandemic is raging again in the United States, and there may be a quarter-million deaths there by election day in November. US ‘deaths per million’ are going up three per day, which means that the US will overtake Chile (now 509) in less than two weeks, Italy (582) in a month, Spain (609) in five weeks. It might even catch up with the UK (682) by election day.
Most of those newly dead Americans will be over 60, so probably Trump supporters. Their relatives and friends are bound to notice eventually. Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump in the polls has already widened to 10%. How could Trump turn that around in the remaining 90 S days?
His only hope is to manufacture an October Surprise: a restaged ‘Tonkin Gulf Incident’ with China, perhaps, or a terrorist ‘threat’ so humongous that it gives him a pretext to declare martial law nationwide. Or maybe he will arrange the premature certification of a Covid-19 vaccine so he can roll it out just before the vote. If it kills a lot of people later on, who cares? He won.
Trump knows that if he loses the election he will spend the rest of his life in court, possibly even in jail. He will do whatever it takes to win. It isn’t over yet.
The U.S. Embassy in Colombo welcomed the U.S. Sports Envoys to Sri Lanka, former National Basketball Association (NBA) and Women’s National Basketball Association (WNBA) players Stephen Howard and Astou Ndiaye, from June 8 through 14.
The Public Diplomacy section of the U.S. Embassy said that it would launch a weeklong basketball program intended to harness the unifying power of sports, made possible through collaboration with Foundation of Goodness and IImpact Hoop Lab.
While in Sri Lanka, Howard and Ndiaye, both retired professional basketball players, will conduct a weeklong program, Hoops for Hope: Bridging Borders through Basketball. The Sports Envoys will lead basketball clinics and exhibition matches and engage in leadership sessions in Colombo and Southern Province for youth aged 14-18 from Northern, Uva, Eastern and Western Provinces, offering skills and leadership training both on and off the court. The U.S. Envoys will also share their expertise with the Sri Lanka Basketball Federation, national coaches, and players, furthering the development of basketball in the country. Beyond the clinics, they will collaborate with Sri Lankan schoolchildren to take part in a community service project in the Colombo area.
“We are so proud to welcome Stephen and Astou as our Sports Envoys to Sri Lanka, to build on the strong people-to-people connections between the United States and Sri Lanka,” said U.S. Ambassador Julie Chung. “The lessons that will be shared by our Sports Envoys – communication, teamwork, resilience, inclusion, and conflict resolution – are essential for leadership development, community building, equality, and peace. The U.S. Sports Envoy program is a testament to our belief that sports can be a powerful tool in promoting peace and unity.”
SJB Colombo District MP Mujibur Rahuman in parliament demanded to know from the government the reasons for CEB suspending the leave of all its employees until further notice from Thursday.
MP Rahuman said that the CEB has got an acting General Manager anew and the latter yesterday morning issued a circular suspending leave of all CEB employees with immediate effect until further notice.
“We demand that Minister Kanchana Wijesekera should explain this to the House. This circular was issued while this debate on the new Electricity Amendment Bill was pending. There are many who oppose this Bill. The Minister must tell parliament the reason for the urge to cancel the leave of CEB employees,” the MP said.However, Speaker Mahinda Yapa Abeywardena prevented Minister Wijesekera responding to the query and said that the matter raised by MP Rahuman was not relevant.
The Chartered Institute of Personnel Management (CIPM) successfully concluded the 8th Annual CIPM Symposium, which took place on 31st May 2024. Themed “Nurturing the Human Element—Redefining HRM in a Rapidly Changing World,” the symposium underscored the pivotal role of human resource management (HRM) in today’s dynamic global landscape. Since its inception in 1959, CIPM has been dedicated to advancing the HR profession through education, professional development, and advocacy, solidifying its position as Sri Lanka’s leading professional body for HRM.
Ken Vijayakumar, the President of the CIPM, graced the occasion as the chief guest. The symposium commenced with the welcome address by the Chairperson, Prof. Arosha Adikaram, followed by the Web Launch of the Symposium Proceedings and Abstract Book by the CIPM President. The event featured distinguished addresses, including a speech by Chief Guest Ken Vijayakumar, President of CIPM, and an address by Guest of Honor Shakthi Ranatunga, Chief Operating Officer of MAS Holdings Pvt. Ltd., Sri Lanka.
The symposium also featured an inspiring keynote address by Prof. Mario Fernando, Professor of Management and Director of the Centre for Cross Cultural Management (CCCM) at the University of Wollongong, Australia.
Vote of Thanks of the inauguration session was delivered by Dr. Dillanjani Weeratunga, Symposium Co-chair.
The symposium served as a comprehensive platform for researchers to present their findings across a wide range of critical topics in HRM. These included Cultural Diversity and Inclusion, Talent Development and Retention, Ethical Leadership and Corporate Social Responsibility, Adapting to Technological Advancements, Mental Health and Well-being at Work, Global Workforce Challenges, Employee Empowerment, and Reskilling and Upskilling.
The plenary session was led by Prof. Wasantha Rajapakse. Certificates were awarded to the best paper presenters during the valedictory session, followed by a vote of thanks delivered by Kamani Perera, Manager of Research and Development.
The annual symposium of CIPM was a truly inclusive event, attracting a diverse audience that spanned undergraduates, graduates, working professionals, research scholars and lecturers. This widespread interest highlights the symposium’s significance in the field of HRM, offering a unique opportunity for everyone to network and learn from scholarly brains.The CIPM International Research Symposium was sponsored by Hambantota International Port, Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology (SLIIT), E B Creasy & Co. PLC, and Print Xcel Company.
US sports envoys to Lanka to champion youth development
Rahuman questions sudden cancellation of leave of CEB employees
