Features
America’s Mid-term, Sri Lanka’s Post-term and other distractions
by Rajan Philips
Thanks to global information overreach, the American midterm elections have been splashed everywhere in everyone’s face. American elections are canonically fixed for their timing, not necessarily for their fairness. Mid-term elections are held between two presidential elections to elect 435 members for a two-year term to the House of Representatives, and a third of the Senate whose 100 members serve a six-year term. In addition, multiple states have their legislature and Governor’s elections in the same mid-term year. Mid-term elections are a referendum on sitting Presidents, especially in their first term, and verdicts usually go against the incumbent President’s Party. President Biden was expected to fare worse than any of his recent predecessors. As it turned out he has performed better than any of them, Democratic or Republican. President George W Bush said he and his Party got a “thumping” after the 2006 mid-term. Obama called it “shellacking” after his mid-term experience in 2010.
If there was any thumping or shellacking last week, it was not in politics but in cricket down under, at the Adelaide Oval, where the national icons of Indian Cricket were memorably thrashed by a relatively nameless team from England which now has a PM of Indian origin to boast. England will now face Pakistan in the 20-over World Cup final, 30 years after a charismatic Imran Khan led his country to its first (50-over) and only World Cup victory, defeating England in the final, which too was played in Australia.
In a curious twist of cricket and politics, Imran Khan is now a deposed Prime Minister leading the charge against the powerful Pakistani military, accusing its top brass and the Pakistani government of plotting to kill him after a gunman’s failed attempt on his life. Ever the fighter, now with his right leg in a cast after the shooting, the former cricketer has become the most serious political threat to the country’s all-powerful military establishment.
Talking of cricket, Sri Lankan cricket is earning notoriety on rape charges in Australian courts after losing out on Australian cricket grounds. What a fall from the winning feats of Arjuna Ranatunga, the spinning exploits of Muralitharan, and the batting brilliance of Mahela Jayawardena and Kumar Sangakkara! For a fleeting moment, there was something to celebrate about a pathbreaking achievement in the Booker Prize award for a Sri Lankan novel, but then someone pettily decided to toss a piece of dung into a pot of literary milk with a pathetic charge of plagiarism. Be that as it may!
Winners & Losers
President Biden has not only avoided the thumping and shellacking that Bush and Obama got, but has also performed better than any President since John F Kennedy at the national level, and is only the third President since 1900 (after Roosevelt in 1934 and Bush in 2002) to register a net gain of seats at the state level. The much touted red (Republican) wave was reduced to a ripple. So, President Biden did a victory lap in the White House with a vindicating press conference, while Republican leaders ran away from cameras. Except Trump, but as always coveting publicity for all the wrong reasons
At the end of the day, and it is becoming a long election day for every election in the US with its state-specific and contested systems of vote counting, the President’s Democratic Party might lose control of both the House and the Senate, but by the slenderest of margins. Not at all by a landslide that Republicans were cockily waiting for. At the same time, Democrats may still retain their slender control of both, as they currently have. Or the Republicans may take the House, while Democrats keep the Senate. The final tally for the House may not be known for several weeks, and the status in the Senate may not be known until the runoff election in Georgia later in December, as no candidate passed the 50% threshhold for outright victory. But the indeterminate results have not hampered political postmortems. Nor have they slowed down the Biden Administration which wants to make the maximum use of the current lame-duck status quo, before the newly elected Congress is sworn in January.
The clear losers after the mid-term vote are Donald Trump and his brand of the Republican Party, on the one hand, and the Catholic-Action Supreme Court of the formally secular United States of America. Besides the pundits, Trump was the only political leader who was boastfully predicting a Republican red wave, and if it has materialized, he would have taken to his megaphone MAGA (Make America Great Again) politics and triumphantly announced his candidacy for a third time in 2024. With the mid-term Republican setbacks, Trump cannot take another Republican ticket for granted. But that does not rule out his candidacy as an independent Trump-Republican. He might decide to run for presidency not with any hope of winning, but as a political safeguard against potential indictments in the courts by the US Justice Department.
In addition to Trump’s political antics and disrespect for the law, the Republican chances in the mid-term elections were undermined by the overturning of the longstanding Roe vs Wade Supreme Court decision on women’s abortion rights, by a conservative majority of six judges of the present Court, five of whom are Catholics and the sixth had a Catholic upbringing. In exit polls during voting, abortion was the second most voting driver after inflation and cost of living, and it certainly cost the red wave for the Republicans.
The Catholic-Conservative dominance of the US Supreme Court began during the Reagan presidency and is a direct result of the economic mobility of American Catholics and their increasing migration from being a mostly immigrant, working class vote base of the Democratic Party, to becoming a wealthy and influential Republican constituency.
According to a recent statistical study of Supreme Court rulings in cases involving religion over nearly 70 years (1953-2020) by two respected empirical law scholars (Lee Epstein and Eric Posner), there have been two major shifts in the court’s rulings: a leftward shift in the 1960s and 1970s, and a rightward shift since the 1990s. However, in recklessly overturning Roe vs. Wade, the Catholic conservative judges may have dared too much, and have in fact created an unprecedented political backlash against their ideological judicial agenda.
At the same time, the rise of Catholic conservatism in the US, like Rishi Sunak’s rise in British political society, is also symptomatic of the inclusiveness of the American society, albeit at the regressive, if not wrong, end of the ideological spectrum. It is also true that notwithstanding Trump’s ugly racism, there has been an increase in the number of Latinos and African Americans voting for the Republican Party, and a number of them becoming Republican candidates. This year’s mid-term election also saw several firsts – of women, lesbians, and Black people winning elections to hitherto barred elected offices in a number of states.
The mid-term election results show that racism, bigotry and, more broadly, anti-foundational populism can be pushed back both politically, even electorally, and through constitutional means. They also show the institutional resilience of the American polity in pushing back the onslaughts of Donald Trump. Other societies would have buckled under such attacks against the political order, even though launching attacks against the political system for personal gains and without any serious political purpose can only be seen as a unique trait of US Trumpism.
Post-Term, Post-Rajapaksa Politics
However much one might despise and disparage the Rajapaksas, there is one thing to be said to their credit that they did not choose to dig in their heels and unleash state terror on protestors. Not that they did not think of doing it, or thought better of it and gave up the idea, or found the aragalaya movement too formidable to take on. Or a hundred other reasons. Some of them tried it on May 9, with disastrous results. Not Gotabaya Rajapaksa. He may or may not have left what he wouldn’t do to be done by his chosen successor, Ranil Wickremesinghe, who did it anyway.
As the protest dust settles, Sri Lanka finds itself in a period of tense transition. The transition, or stalemate, whatever you might call it, is showing no sign of getting to an end. Put another way, post-Rajapaksa politics is beginning to look like post-term pregnancy, not a healthy situation for anyone. Sri Lanka has experienced political changes and successions through elections and between elections. But never before has there been such an extended transition – between the departing political forces and their replacements.
Rajapaksas are virtually finished in politics – at least from the power business of politics. Ranil Wickremesinghe who was virtually finished in politics a year ago is trying to find his final wind to make the most of the fortuity of his becoming President literally out of nowhere. At 73, Mr. Wickremesinghe is about the same age (in fact, a little older) as JR Jayewardene was when he became Prime Minister for the first time and Sri Lanka’s first Executive President soon after. But JRJ had five-sixths of the then parliament in his pocket, literally the resignation letters of his MPs and his Ministers.
Even so the long parliament of 1977 was a substantial parliament in terms of its MPs and their endowments. And also, in terms of its accomplishments. Whether one agrees with them or not, they were significant and substantial. On the other hand, the present parliament is the most insubstantial parliament since parliamentary system was introduced in Sri Lanka. And President Wickremesinghe has to dole out cabinet positions from his presidential pocket to keep his parliamentary majority secure.
Sri Lanka’s first Prime Minister, DS Senanayake wanted it written into the (Jennings-Soulbury) Constitution that the number of cabinet ministers in a government shall not exceed – if I remember right what I have read – 18. The British officials advised him not to, as that would be unnecessarily restrictive. Now the Constitution is not restrictive, but permissive. And not only is the President expanding his cabinet, but he is also expanding the self-assignment of portfolios to himself as President. On all important matters, the Wickremesinghe Administration is a one-man band. The unimportant matters are the playing fields for corrupt middlemen and money makers.
If the government, or what is there in name, lacks direction, the opposition is in disarray. There have been two separate protests in the name of the same people. The first was on October 27 by JVP-led trade unions, and the second on November 2 by non-JVP unions with limited show by SJB stalwarts. Neither protest gave worries to the government, nor did they make any political gain for the organizers. The JVP seems to have gotten itself into a puritanical political bubble, and is intending to stay there until elections are called. The SJB is all over the map, with as many heads as it has MPs. Between them, the two have made parliament more worthless than what the SLPP has already turned it into. And they are contributing to the post-term extension of post-Rajapaksa politics.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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