Features
All align for Sri Lanka’s Debt, Tanks align in Ukraine, Doomsday Clock ticks to Midnight Hour
by Rajan Philips
Over the last two weeks Sri Lanka has been inundated with assurances of support by the world’s three most populous and powerful countries. India, America and China – all three of them marked their presence in Sri Lanka in one way or another. Japan and UK have also come on board to reinforce Sri Lanka’s pleas for IMF help. Before that on Sunday, January 8, 182 economists, social scientists and development experts, including such generational names in Economics as Jayati Ghosh, Thomas Piketty, and Yannis Varoufakis, issued a statement to the (British) Guardian that “all lenders—bilateral, multilateral, and private must share the burden of restructuring” Sri Lanka’s debt. Both were big news for Sri Lanka. A case of overwhelming global support to a rather underwhelming Sri Lankan government.
The big news for the world this week was the agreement between the US and Germany and the rest of NATO to send Germany’s Leopard 2 and America’s Abram tanks to Ukraine to fight Russia. And Russia is widening the frontiers of an emerging global cold conflict by partnering South Africa to stage joint naval exercises in African waters. There is no comparison between the situations in Sri Lanka and in Ukraine although there have been past linkages between the corrupt regimes of the two countries for private gains of the powerful. However, by all appearances and for the sake of argument while the world appears to be coming together in Sri Lanka, it is getting hopelessly divided over Ukraine. According to Doomsday Clock scientists, the war in Ukraine is triggering the gravest threat to the world since World War II.
Doomsday Clock
The Doomsday Clock was set up in 1947 by a group of atomic scientists to provide a measure of the catastrophic threats facing the planet and humanity. The group included Albert Einstein and others who had worked on the Manhattan project that led to the development of the world’s first nuclear weapons. The clock is run by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, now a Chicago based non-profit organization which includes climate scientists and nuclear experts with 13 Nobel laurates among them. The Bulletin updates the clock annually after assessing a range of significant threats facing the world, and it did so last Tuesday, January 24, moving the clock hands to 90 seconds to midnight, their closest ever to Doomsday – signifying global annihilation.
The planet is not going to explode anytime soon, but the ticking Doomsday Clock provides perspective on the deteriorating global situation in the early 21st century. The farthest the clock has been from midnight is 17 minutes (see illustration), and that was in 1991 when the Cold War ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Rather than moving away from midnight and Doomsday, the clock has been ticking closer in the 21st century, getting to 100 seconds to midnight in 2020 and to 90 seconds last Tuesday. The risk level is higher now than it ever was during the Cold War. That is a sad commentary on the world leadership that humankind has been saddled with over the last 25 years.
The latest Doomsday Clock update is a reflection of the confluence of climate furies, pandemic hangovers, spreading food scarcity, the war in Ukraine and the fear of nuclear escalation. The current world leaders cannot be held wholly responsible for the climate crisis, the origins of which go back to the beginning of industrialization. The Covid pandemic might be seen as the revenge of the pathogens for reckless deforestation for global consumption. But world leaders who came after the end of the Cold War must bear full responsibility for bringing back what is now a multilateral war in Ukraine and for reviving the old threat of nuclear confrontation.
The Logic of Cold War
During the Cold War the two superpowers, the US and the USSR, executed the art of containment quite remarkably. Now, the US and post-Soviet Russia are entrenching their standoffs in Ukraine without any thought about an exit door or offramp to get out. As well, there was a somewhat redeeming logic to the Cold War in that it underlaid two competing visions of world society – the trickle-down complacency of market capitalism and the emancipatory assertions of socialism. To make a passing point, even though the diehard decriers of socialism will insist that market has conclusively triumphed over socialism, the truth is that the threat of socialism has transformed the market albeit in different ways in different countries. There is nothing new here, for the origins of market responses to the spectre of revolution go back to the time of Bismarck and the (first) unification of Germany. And the dialectic will continue. The pressing point now is that there are no competing socioeconomic visions to rationalize the current conflict. Putin is a Russian Orthodox hankering to restore not Soviet socialism but Russia’s Tsarist glory. And there might be more socialists in America, at least in the reckoning of the Republican Party, than in Russia.
Yet, the rolling of tanks from Germany, the US and other NATO countries into Ukraine will raise the conflict to a different level, as the Russians are already noting as part of their PR exercise for domestic and selected international consumption. The emerging world divisions are already palpable. South Africa has signalled that it is joining hands with Russia to push for a “redesigned global order.” South Africa and Russia are members of BRICS, along with Brazil, India and China. There are also signs that BRICS is looking to expand to include new members such as Nigeria, Egypt, Venezuela, Iran, Argentina and Saudi Arabia.
The map above based on Huntington’s Clash of Civilizations is illustrative of the emerging division, pitting ever more starkly the West (Dark Blue) against the Rest (Light Blue being West-lite, including Catholic Latin America and Orthodox Eastern Europe. Dark Grey is the old Imperial Colonies of Asia and Africa). Notably, while NATO is limited to the West, BRICS includes members from every non-western continent. To me, calling these divisions a clash of civilizations is a copout answer. If at all, there are overlapping civilizations crisscrossing geopolitical boundaries. Such crisscrossing was a feature even during the Cold War years.
Today’s West includes increasing segments of people from outside the West, many of whom are getting to be represented in the echelons of power in the West. In Rishi Sunak, Britain has a person of Indian origin from East Africa as its Prime Minister. The presence of Ukrainians in large numbers in the West is a significant factor in the support that Ukraine is getting for standing up to Russia. This trend is inevitable in spite of the racial-populist backlashes against it.
Sri Lanka and India
Unlike in Ukraine, NATO members (the US and UK) and BRICS members (India, China and even South Africa) are all-aligned in Sri Lanka. India was the first to declare its readiness to stand by Sri Lanka through its visiting Minister of External Affairs, S. Jaishankar. The Minister affirmed his Prime Minister’s commitment “Neighbourhood First” policy and extended “financial assurances to the IMF” to finalize the IMF’s agreement with Sri Lanka. China followed suit but not with unqualified support. Japan was already supportive and has now been joined by UK. The US marked its presence in a different way by staging a joint maritime exercise with Sri Lanka in Colombo, Trincomalee and Mullikullam.
This year’s exercise was apparently to mark the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the United States and Sri Lanka and was joined by participants from the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force and Maldives National Defence Force. Sri Lanka’s naval exercises may not carry too much geopolitical significance but its coincidence with the joint naval exercise involving Russia and South Africa is not likely to go unnoticed. For Sri Lanka, what is critical now is not maritime security but finalizing the IMF bailout package. The question is what help the US will provide to close the deal with the IMF, and the question has been raised in a (un)diplomatic spat involving the US and Chinese Ambassadors in Colombo, and has been lately joined by Dr Gunadasa Amarasekara in his capacity the Convenor of the Federation of National Organisations (FNO) in Sri Lanka.
For all the diplomatic hustle and bustle in Colombo, the Wickremesinghe government is not being transparent about who is doing what, and how and where things are, on the economic front. At the same time, the government is creating a rash of distractions in areas that have nothing to do with the economy and which are only diverting valuable efforts and resources which could otherwise be deployed on the economic front. The government’s shenanigans to stall the local government elections are the biggest unwanted distraction, but they are not the only one. In these circumstances, it will require a massive leap of faith for anyone to think that the government is sufficiently prepared to take maximum leverage of all the support that Sri Lanka seems to be getting now.
What is also not clear is the extent to which President Wickremesinghe and his government are cognizant of the shift in India’s foreign policy under Prime Minister Modi with Foreign Minister Jaishankar as the shift’s chief architect. The shift is defined by what Indian commentators call the new buzzword – all-alignment. It is a rebuke of the old Nehruvian non-alignment, which Mr. Jaishankar dismisses as a failure in his 2021 book, The India Way: Strategies for an Uncertain World.
Instead, Jaishankar advocates a transactional approach to foreign policy and dealing with other countries, in which India will advance its national interests “by identifying and exploiting opportunities created by global contradictions.” To that end, India will “engage America, manage China, cultivate Europe, reassure Russia, bring Japan into play, draw neighbours in, extend the neighbourhood and expand traditional constituencies of support.” Sri Lanka is being drawn in as a neighbour, even a special neighbour, but will Sri Lanka have the proportionate capacity to be transactional in its own way, and to identify and take advantage of global and regional contradictions?
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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