A Rescue and Reset Plan for Sri Lanka

by Sanath Nanayakkara

In the following interview given to The Island Financial Review, independent financial advisor and consultant Ranjith Wickremasinghe (Ranjith_@ymail.com) outlines what he describes as a Rescue and Reset Plan for Sri Lanka. Ranjith Wickremasinghe is a former chairman of the Sri Lanka Ports Authority and of the Ceylon Shipping Corporation.

What is the basic essence of your Rescue and Reset Plan for Sri Lanka – published on 14th April 2022 (ISBN 978-624-97686-5-9)?

Decades of fiscal deficits, trade deficits, balance of payment deficits, corruption, mismanagement, bad decisions, leakages, damage to our economic resources by pollution from SLiMDOE described below, and the loss of tourism income due to covid19 has caused the foreign debt to increase to US$ 60 billion from US$ 18 billion in 2009, leading to an untenable annual debt repayment US$7 billion.

In analyzing our strengths of the sea which is eight times bigger than our landmass, and our strategic location in the center of the Indian Ocean my research identified a hidden intrinsic asset which I have further researched, formulated, invented, monetized and published as the “Sri Lanka’s Multi-Billion Ocean-Air Expressway”, which I have named as SLiMDOE in my publication ISBN 978-624-97686-4-2 on 12th September 2021.

The carriage of 30% of world trade annually via 85,000 ocean and air crossings using the SLiMDOE short-cut across Sri Lanka and abutting the Dondra Head in the southern tip has enabled global economies to gain US$ 100 billion during the last decade whilst damaging our economy by an equal amount, which could be used as leverage to waive off our debt.

Basic Strategy of the Rescue and Reset Plan

1. Obtain a waiver on foreign debt repayments against the damage caused to our economic resources by pollution in using the SLiMDOE via a global initiative under the umbrella of the World Bank and UNDP. It is proposed that an interim waiver of debt repayments for 2022 and 2023 amounting to US$ 7 billion each are requested, pending discussions with the global economies and the creditors.

2. It is also imperative to obtain bridging finance of US$ 4 billion each for 2022 and 2023 needed to reset the stalled economy, from multilateral institutions and friendly countries.

3. Corresponding to the above “reset process” the GoSL is required to implement several other proposals to obtain a burst of development using the “South Sea of Sri Lanka”, to earn foreign exchange quickly, and to avert the present foreign exchange and the debt crisis. The full potential of export earnings could exceed US $ 20 billion per annum at full fruition enabling our economy to grow from US$ 84 billion in 2021 to over US$ 100 billion by 2026, detailed in my publication ISBN 978-624-97686-5-9.

These measures are expected to out wipe out the trade deficit of US$ Bn 8 to surplus of US$ Bn 2 by 2026 by increasing the exports from 2020 US$ Bn 10 to US$ 33 by 2026, and benefiting from the value addition, import substitution, and increased agricultural, fishery and livestock output, well over 100% by 2026.

Targets given are expected to turnaround the Sri Lankan economy to a GDP growth of 0.4 % in 2022, by 3% in 2023, 4% in 2024, 5% in 2025, 6% in 2026, and reduce the budget deficit from 11% in 2020 and 2021 to 6% of GDP by 2022, and to 3% by 2026, and substantially increase our external reserves and reduce our foreign debt. (As the relief measures are being delayed due to the present political impasse, this will cause a negative growth in 2022 than predicted above).

The UNDP recently proposed ‘debt-for-nature swaps’ to tackle Sri Lanka’s debt problem. This proposal from the UNDP came as Sri Lanka is getting ready to talk with its multiple creditors to restructure its debt. The International Rating Agency Moody’s has also expressed the view that it is wiser for Sri Lanka to explore this option. In another development, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson recently assured support to Sri Lanka for climate financing. In this context, do you think that Sri Lanka can leverage this opportunity to obtain such climate-related instruments to raise new funding as well as to forgo at least part of the country’s existing debt?

Yes, Sri Lanka can use my discovery, Sri Lanka’s Multi-Billion Dollar Ocean-air Expressway (SLiMDOE) as leverage to obtain a waiver on repayment of debt and obtain the bridging finance as per my concept published in September 2021, the principle of which has now has been reinforced by the UNDP and the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Government tax revenue which recorded 12% in 2019 has fallen to 8% of GDP in 2020. It needs to be raised immediately and eased gradually as the economy grows as per your Plan. However, the private sector asks for a simplified tax structure and consistency in tax policy. The ordinary people want less indirect taxes and more direct taxes levied from the rich. How can we strike a balance between these two dynamics?

The President has stated that the reduction of taxes in 2020 was a mistake, and the new Prime Minister also holding the portfolio of Finance has already taken remedial aimed at correcting this situation. As the economy stabilizes during the tail end of the five-year period the corrections could be made appropriately to the ratio of direct to indirect tax.

According to your Rescue and Reset Plan for Sri Lanka, the government’s recurrent expenditure now standing at 17% of GDP needs to be brought down to 14% by end 2022, to help reduce the budget deficit now running at 11% of GDP. How can we do this in a sufficient and appropriate manner while protecting the country’s economic and public services interests?

Austerity has to start at the top, and has to percolate to the lower levels. We are a bankrupt nation; the carnival is over; we need to be lean and mean at the top and up to the bottom. We need to challenge every single item of expenditure based on “value for money” and lead by example. No more luxury living at the expense of the tax payer.Restructuring of SOEs is considered to be crucial for fiscal consolidation and Sri Lanka’s sustainable growth, but there’s a lot of resistance from trade unions to undermine such attempts. How can we achieve this against this backdrop?

All the CEO’s of SOE’s must be instructed to submit a five-year corporate plan and a financial plan immediately. All these plans must be evaluated by an expert committee who would give the policy direction. In this exercise the accounting and other professional bodies should be asked to volunteer their membership to assist in these evaluations to keep the costs to a bare minimum. All CEO, s must be given dividend targets.

Price of basic food and other essentials have increased from 30% to 80%. The poor has become poorer, and now have to skip meals. Do you think as a country running a twin deficit, Sri Lanka can provide relief to these vulnerable segments in the near future? If so, what’s the specific social safety net you propose?The dividends targets must be given to restructured SOE’s to finance the safety net of the poor.