Features
A bleak forecast for 2024 and beyond : Politics (security), economics and military
by Kumar David
This piece uses the vast amount of information on the web, social-media, broadcasts and news sites. My role is to use what limited intelligence providence has endowed me with to select and filter. I hope this will be of service to readers who do not have the patience to explore all the available information themselves. Nations are fretful above all else of existential concerns, that is politics in the sense of security, not politics in the familiar but vulgar sense of endemic corruption. Once existence is assured the second matter to focus on is material well-being; prosperity, employment, wealth and so on broadly falling under the umbrella term ‘the economy’. My accent in this piece is on the Great Powers (America, China and Russia) though discussion of the Middle East (the Muslim World and Israel) is unavoidable.
Who the Victor Who the Victim pray?
Security is not the same as armaments and military stuff though it leans on hardware. Security above all refers to a political dimension. The security of the United States refers to its relationship with, say China and Russia, the rising tide of anger in the Muslim world and the genocidal state in Israel and so on. The credibility of the United States in this political sense depends, for example, on how its relationship with Saudi Arabia evolves, whether the Houthi rebels disrupt commercial shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, etc. The military is only an instrument not the foundation in this assessment.
I need to add that the 1916 Sykes-Picot agreement under which the Middle East was carved up into British and French spheres of influence after the Ottoman Empire collapses at the end of WW-I is now dead. Sykes-Picot placed Lebanon, Syria and South Eastern Turkey under a French mandate, likewise awarded Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar to the British, Armenia was handed over to Russia. Palestine because of its significance to several religions was placed under joint British, French and Russian protection.
To return to the issue of security from what I have said thus far it is clear that security is primarily a political, a socio-political matter. In days of old it much depended on alliances, the stature of the leader (Alexander, Genghis or Napoleon) and having many daughters and nieces to marry-off to rival kings. The second matter is the economy; that is keeping the masses fed lest they revolt (Chinese dynasties were often overthrown by peasant revolts), trade (domestic, regional and far-flung) and technology (copper to brass to iron). In today’s language the economy reads GNP, trade balances, microchips.
Why am I pessimistic about the post-2004 world? At the end of WW2 capitalism emerged triumphant and set the tone for the post-war welfare state, investment and profit maximisation, an unchallenged global currency, the petro-dollar, the Marshal Plan and the hegemony of US Imperialism. Defeat in Vietnam and much later in Afghanistan and the 1971 collapse of the gold standard were warnings but did not end that global order. My case today is that it has now ended. The metamorphosis in the Muslim world, (can Israel conquer all the neighbouring Muslims?), the unavoidable defeat of US bankrolled Ukraine in its contest with Russia notwithstanding its plucky early phase, and the spectacular new expanded BRICS signal a new economic-world. Cassandra would sum it up – “the globe is screwed-up”.
China’s economic rise is meteoric. It has bypassed the so-called ‘middle income trap’, sustained growth for 40 years, attracted investment and entrepreneurial capital for 30 and defeated poverty on a scale that beggar’s description. It is not a democracy by any measure, the writ of the Communist Party runs supreme, I do not expect to see this challenged in the next few decades. The point in the context of my argument about global transformation is that this change seems irreversible for now and points to a new relationship between state, society and the economy. (Sri Lanka take note). That is to say the pax-Americana of the previous three quarter century has come to an end.
An aspect of this that I want to draw attention to is BRICS. In addition to the five counties in the original acronym, it has in the last two weeks been joined by Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the UAE. These ten between them produce 40% of global output. There can be no argument that we are living through a changing political and economic world order.
The Global Economy
The economic game is a two horse race for the foreseeable future, Russia is not in this race. At best it is a junior partner to the Chinese behemoth. But displacing the dollar from its position as global reserve currency (that is the currency in which the world prefers to keep its reserves and the preferred currency of international transactions) is a long way off. SWIFT and such transfer mechanisms are established and trusted so long as one does not do anything that runs afoul of US strategic interests (e.g. upsets its efforts to confiscate Russian assets in the global banking system, or strengthen Iran’s rise as an economic or nuclear power, or undermine US efforts to starve China of high technology – AI, nanotech, high mobility manoeuvrable missile systems).
Military Hardware
There has been a transformation in military hardware in the last decade in both technology and global accessibility. It would be too much for me to cover the latter adequately particularly in relation to many important emergent theatres, for example Turkish development of perhaps the most sophisticated drones and unmanned vehicles, Iranian missile technology and development and access of non-state actors such as the Houthi rebels and Hezbollah (which controls Southern Lebanon) into the game.
I will focus on the important new hardware being developed by the three foremost strategic powers, America, Russia and China. The big new breakthrough is what are called High Mobility Ultra Sonic (HMUS) missile systems. These missiles travel at several times the speed of sound (say Mach 4 to 8), fly in low earth-hugging orbital paths and therefore are very difficult to detect.
They are manoeuvrable (can change trajectory to avoid interception) and can discharge multiple warheads when close enough to the target. There is no reason why they cannot carry small nuclear warheads. They cost a few million dollars apiece and can pierce defences like Israel’s Iron Dome or an aircraft-carrier battle group. HMUS with satellite guidance is the avant-garde technology. It is the defence pundit’s new nightmare.
The second item in the military kit of the Great Powers is the aircraft-carrier. Only the US has nuclear powered (can remain at sea for more than a year) carriers (about five or six) and two more under construction. Russia is really an empty cupboard in the carrier department while China is racing ahead and may float two domestically designed and constructed nuclear powered high-tech carriers in about three to five years.
The advantage of the carrier is that it can project power. US aircraft carries project power into the Taiwan Straits, the Mediterranean and North Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. An option that is beyond China’s reach for the foreseeable future. Russia lacks the money, the head-start and the technology to ever get into this game.
Next I want to refer to air power. I assume that equipment and training wise the US Air Force is well ahead. The F-22 and F-35 fighters outclass the top of the range Russian SU-57 and Chinese FC-31, but as far quality of air power in concerned I am simply repeating what I find on the web where it is also reported that US stealth technology is more secretive and superior. In so far as hours of high level training is concerned I assume that the Americans give their chaps better exposure.
Finally I want to talk about ground forces, the army. Everything that I read says the US Army is not only in relative but also in absolute decline. “Our army is nowhere near as strong as what it was in the early 1990s” is the repeated lament. Officers are not as good and well trained as they used to be, experience is inadequate, social problems (race, crime, family breakdown) is having a detrimental effect on all ranks It is also being said that the hardware is falling short of expectations. The Abraham tank for example is talked about rather disparagingly – a terrestrial version of the Boeing 737-Max!
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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