Features
Indian think-tank sanguine about Indo-Lankan ties, but calls for security redlines – Analysis
By P. K. Balachandran
New Delhi is alive to the possibility of anti-Indian elements co-opting China to destabilize Indo-Lankan relationsTwo articles published by the influential New Delhi-based think-tank, Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF), on August 29 and September 8, give an idea of how the Indian Establishment is viewing developments in Sri Lanka from the point of view Indo-Lankan relations.
The articles say that the efforts of President Ranil Wickremesinghe and High Commissioner Milinda Moragoda augur well for India-Sri Lanka relations, but challenges to the relationship could arise from traditional anti-Indian elements tying up with China, which is trying hard to wean Sri Lanka away from India.
The articles note the wholehearted and public acknowledgment of India’s timely economic assistance by President Wickremesinghe and the ceaseless efforts of High Commissioner Moragoda to keep bilateral relations ticking. At the same time, the articles also bring out the existence of a serious gap in the relationship on security matters as seen in the recent episode involving the docking of the controversial Chinese vessel Yuan Wang 5 at Hambantota harbor.
Brighter Side
Looking at the brighter side first, one of the articles said: “India may have every reason to feel relieved with President Ranil Wickremesinghe (RW) at the helm of affairs. India has been his ‘international safety net’ when he negotiated the ceasefire with LTTE in 2001. The quality of Sri Lankan diplomacy in India has undergone a sea-change since August 2021, thanks to the efforts of Milinda Morogoda, High Commissioner to India, and his equation with the political leadership and strategic community here.”
“RW has made two important statements on Sri Lanka-India relations. On Aug 14, he was present at a ceremony in Colombo to witness the handing over a Dornier Maritime Recce and Surveillance Aircraft to the Sri Lankan Navy. Even more importantly, he delivered an eight-minute speech giving his reflections on Indo-Lanka relations. It was very thought provoking. The speech and his presence at the ceremony have important connotations in the backdrop of the controversy over the permission given by Sri Lanka to a Chinese survey vessel to visit Hambantota.”
“Even in his Throne Speech (Aug 03) in Parliament, RW devoted several minutes talking about India. It was exceptional, as no other country was mentioned directly or indirectly. This is unprecedented in recent times in as much as no Sri Lankan Head of State has used the parliamentary platform or diplomatic event to articulate positive statements on India. It can be surmised that these are indications of relations moving to the next level and greater positivity as well. It also underlined that he feels secure in his job.”
“The impressive Throne Speech (TS) was RW’s masterstroke. Without ruffling feathers, he conveyed the sense that he is in command and expects to run his term till November 2024. By publicly closing the door on GR’s (Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s) immediate return to Sri Lanka, RW used the parliamentary platform to signal his distancing away from the Rajapaksas and their supporters. He is, however, unlikely to shake the cage at this juncture or till he constitutes the All-Party Government.”
“It is important to note that RW has received support across party lines. The SJB (the opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya) is the latest to join the bandwagon. The minorities have vested faith in him, while some are keen to join the government others have expressed outside support. Government has lifted the proscription on overseas Tamil groups and has also banned some unnamed Muslim groups. The effect of both decisions needs to be examined.”
Road Is Still Hard
The good developments notwithstanding, the road ahead for India-Lanka relations looks hard.
“There is no pro-India constituency in Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka still remembers the support India lent to the Tamils. India has now signaled that it has the ability to offer lines of credit quickly. But India’s ability to provide constant succor to Sri Lanka is limited. Many of the Indian previous proposals including the connectivity projects and bilateral energy grid, remain unimplemented.”
“India will have to follow a policy of close engagement, but not play favorites. While there is no pervasive anti-India sentiment, the Sinhala Buddhist political constituency uses that narrative to demonize India.”
“It is known that Sri Lanka has not been sensitive to India’s security concerns. It is critical for India to convey that point across to the Sri Lankans, reiterate the concerns and convey the red lines,” one of the articles said.
“India needs to increase the people-to-people connectivity as well as build infrastructural connectivity. In the recent past, the Sri Lankan High Commissioner to India had highlighted a ten-point agenda to increase bilateral engagement. It will be worth examining these again. India could focus on developing the Buddhist Bodh Gaya travel circuit. That would have an immediate appeal to a large population in Sri Lanka,” it added.
Ranil-Modi Meeting in Tokyo
President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s visit to Tokyo to take part in the commemoration ceremony of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will give him a “golden opportunity” to meet the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. “It will give India time to review past actions of the Sri Lankan government and to remove irritants preventing the growth and development of bilateral relations. RW’s interaction with the Chinese and other dignitaries including QUAD, ASEAN and Western countries should be watched with interest,” the VIF article said.
“The trust deficit that had presided over bilateral relations particularly since 2009 has receded, but it remains a source of worry for Indian foreign policy managers. The meeting between Indian and Sri Lankan leaders at upcoming Tokyo event must provide the solution to addressing the deficit trust,” the Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF) article added.
JVP-FSP Alliance
The articles also noted the rise in the popularity of the anti-India JVP and its impact on India. Referring to a survey conducted by the Center for Policy Alternatives (CPA), the VIF said that JVP’s leader Anura Kumara Dissanayaka received an endorsement of 48.5% followed by Ranil Wickremesinghe with 36.65% with Mahinda Rajapaksa at the tail end with 11.28%.
“The JVP veteran receiving top marks in the opinion poll is an important development which needs to be carefully analyzed especially its alignment with FSP (Frontline Socialist Party).” The FSP is openly hostile to India as it had had armed conflicts with the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) in the late 1980s.
Options for India
The VIF stressed the need to identify fault lines and distrust in India-Lanka relations, considering them to be “urgent and important.” It suggested some options for consideration.
“One way forward is to focus attention on southern Sri Lanka and along the west coast that have remained bastions of Sinhala-Buddhist society. This is the heartland that decides major issues binding the parties in power to making decisions often not commensurate with contemporary developments.”
“The opposition to India’s participation in the West Coast Terminal project is one such example and there are others too. It is not difficult to identify the vested interests here. These have cast a deepening shadow on India-Lanka relations. Policy makers on both sides have an arduous task ahead to try and remove the irritants.”
“The CPA opinion poll has some interesting revelations especially about the JVP. The Inter University Students Front (IUSF) and Frontline Socialist Party (FSP) are of interest and may have the potential to influence people against India. The “united” JVP in the past had a clear anti-India agenda besides being identified as pro-Beijing. The presence of several parliamentarians from JVP to welcome the Chinese “spy” ship at Hambantota on Aug 16, 2022 is another example.”
Hambantota Port
“That Hambantota is an irritant in India-Lanka relations is to state the obvious. The recent visit of Yuan Wang-5 has proved it beyond doubt and also exposed the limitations of Sri Lanka’s strategic thinking on such critical issues. This may be the beginning of a new challenge to both India and Sri Lanka as more such visits will take place in the future. This fault line has to be addressed by both sides. Obviously, there are lessons to be learnt here especially for Sri Lanka policymakers,” the VIF said.
Need for Detailed White Paper
The need for a detailed White paper on India-Sri Lanka relations has become necessary with the objective of bringing balance to the relationship and highlight India’s contributions, the think-tank felt.
“There is not much that is written on India’s role along with Norway in brokering the ceasefire between the Sri Lankan Government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE); India’s insistence of creating the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission (SLMM) to monitor the ceasefire, the activities of two Indian Non-Government Organizations (NGOs) in Humanitarian Demining efforts in Vavuniya and Mannar and India’s role in Tsunami relief. The list is endless.”
Study of China’s Activities
The VIF suggests study of Chinese activities in Sri Lanka in the past seven decades, particularly in the 21st century. “This will be an important strategy paper which should serve as institutional memory and a ready reckoner for present and future policymakers, opinion makers and practitioners.”
“China did not shed a tear for GR when he lost political office. The lesson here is that China has its national security interests as foremost in all its transactions and nothing else matters,” the VIF pointed out.
But China continues to woo Sri Lanka to set the latter up against India. The latest is the article the Chinese Ambassador to Sri Lanka circulated to the media which clearly indicated this agenda. The Ambassador said: “Sri Lanka and China should jointly protect their sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence in view of threats they face”. The article was built around the visit of US delegation led by Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan and the visit of Yuan Wan 5 to Hambantota. “
“Just like Sri Lanka, China had suffered a hundred years from 1840 till 1949. Because of similar dark experience, China has always been supporting Sri Lanka”.
The Ambassador’s article made no attempt to disguise criticism of India and went on to draw attention to the 51st session of the United Nations Human Rights Council in September in which, it said, it would be known as to “whether they use human rights as a cover-up tool to interfere in the Island nation’s internal affairs and continue to rub salt into the wounds of Sri Lankan people”.
Commenting on this a VIF article said: “For a country like China to abandon Sri Lanka when it needed assistance to overcome its severe economic crisis, the article by the Chinese Ambassador is like rubbing salt into the wounds of the Sri Lankan people.”
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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