Features
Ranil-SWOT: A Reappraisal
by Kumar David
Less than three months ago on June 10 (“Ranil: A SWOT Appraisal”) I offered readers an evaluation of the future that beckons then Prime Minister now President Ranil Wickremesinghe (RW). It is a sign of how quickly events move that I have to repeat the exercise so soon. If you track the Sunday Island, daily Island or other English language papers you will be familiar with what columnists are saying. For my purposes today the Home Page of Colombo Telegraph (CT) is more convenient. With one click you gain access to a large number of titles and with another click reach any of them. Of the 20+ currently on offer here are the 12 most hostile to RW. I have omitted author names because debate about specific opinions is not my purpose; it is the trend that I want you to observe. These 12 pieces see RW as dangerous and a threat to democracy and describe the economic prospects facing his Administration as hopeless.
“Ranil’s policy train-wreck, opposition own-goals, Dullas-GL game-changer”
“Taking dictatorial steps to control public Sri Lanka”
“Ranil’s perilous authoritarian alternative”
“Government’s attempt to redefine political discourse & direction through suppression”
“Sri Lanka’s PTA: Anti-terrorism law that promotes terrorism”
“Reliance on repression will worsen current crisis”
“Wickremesinghe/Rajapaksa – an axis of evil’
“Use of prevention of terrorism (Temporary Provisions) Act to stab the rule of law”
“Witch-Hunting Mudalige; Ranil-Rajapaksa repression & opposition’s confusion”
“Is Lanka heading towards the Myanmar model of governance?”
“Lanka’s determined non-compliance of UNHRC resolutions; defiance of UN & UNHRC Charters”
“Ranil & Dinesh Have A Past, Not A Future!”
People understandably are very angry about RW’s inordinate use of force to beat up protestors the moment he was sworn in as president. It provoked me to call him ‘Batalanda Ranil’ in my columns. Also see a damning 2015 report by Dharman Wickremaratne in Lankaweb. (Obviously I cannot vouch for it). https://www.lankaweb.com/news/items/2015/08/03/demons-of-batalanda-who-was-behind-them/.
Ranil was complicit in the notorious Batalanda torture chamber, furthermore Prime Minister Premadasa had knowledge and permitted the functioning of dozens of torture sites across the country.
The Research Directorate of the Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada in its joint website with the UNHRC (https://www.refworld.org/docid/3ae6acfd54.html) reports as follows: “The Batalanda Commission report that was submitted to President Chandrika on 27 March 1997 found the police Counter Subversive Unit (CSU) headed by (Douglas) Peiris “directly responsible” for the torture carried out at the semi-unofficial detention centre at Batalanda Housing Scheme. The report also found that Wickramasinghe knew of the centre’s existence”.
More recently a hard-hitting piece, titled “President Wickremesinghe’s first step was to inflict violence on protestors” appeared on 23 July in this US website jurist.org/news. It said: “RW made public declarations supporting people’s protest before being appointed Acting President under Rajapaksa and advised officials not to interfere or use force against protestors at ‘GotaGoGama’. Contrary to his words, his action on becoming President speaks volumes about his character. …. As the days progress the people of Lanka and the world wait to see whether he will reign through terror and hinder democracy”.
I have pulled out these three pieces to show why so many people fear that RW may go from bad to worse. The CT titles I listed convey the impression that most correspondents believe that RW is still a threat. However, I think they are not tracking trends. Good heavens I am not asking you to whitewash RW in the democracy department! Victor Ivan has done it for inexplicable reasons (and what’s the socio-economic programme which Ivan says the two of them have cooked up?) Nevertheless, we must evaluate trends as they progress. The reason I am undertaking a follow-up SWOT analysis is because I see a dynamic at work.
SWOT denotes Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats. The rest of this essay is how I see RW’s options shaping-up in the coming months. He has been attacked mercilessly by domestic opinion (trade unions, liberals, the left, churches, temples, the media, the diplomatic community in Colombo) as well as global human rights groups and world public opinion. The military option, the Kamal, Army Silva, Sarath Weerasekara, STF, murder-with-impunity and tiger-behind-every-cadjan-fence fairy tales, are dead for now. The Emergency will be allowed to lapse, PTA watered down, Tamil diaspora given some space and the RTI Commission, Transparency and civil society will gain some strength. RW is plastered to the wall and prevented from violating democratic rights. For how long? Maybe for long; he has no way of reincarnating a Batalanda avatar any time soon. Supporters will market this as a virtue, a return of the prodigal to godliness and peddle it as a Strength. The business community will buy it.
Secondly RW’s performance evaluation depends on two more factors; (a) can he sell belt-tightening to the people as unavoidable for say two years and a necessary measure on the road to economic recovery, and (b) how will any alliance he cobbles together perform at an election within a few months. Let’s not speculate beyond that in these fast-changing times. Even aragalaya militants grant that there will be hard times ahead on the economic front, their debate is about where the burden should fall. Only Lanka’s Mad Monetary Theorists (new style MMTs) say ‘switch on the printing press 24/7, flood the pockets of the poor with crisp new notes and let the middle-classes and businesses go fly a kite’. People know inflation, they have suffered at the receiving end for nine months and they can perceive what hyperinflation will do. Let’s watch the December budget for real indicators.
People are not stupid; they know that even if the Son of God is made president, substantial price inflation will persist. Were Sajith, Anura Kumara or some SLPP-Rajapaksa coot to say “Make me president in place of Ranil; I will bring down prices fast and Lanka will flow with milk and honey” he will be greeted with shrieks of derision. The gist of what I am saying is this: Price inflation and a slow economy will not kill RW if an election were to be conducted within a few months. People know that not much is possible pronto. The IMF and global capitalism prefer Ranil to Sajith, AKD or a Rajapaksa-coot. Western capitalism and India will nudge external economics (debt restructuring and procurement of fuel) in directions that will help RW survive and be re-elected. I am saying that global capitalism wants Ranil and will assist him in subtle and not so subtle ways: this I guess is obvious to most people.
In SWOT terminology this counts as an Opportunity and if RW plays his cards smartly a Strength. What then in my view is the most significant Weakness facing RW at this time? Without doubt it is that till the dissolution of Parliament he is a slave of pro-government and SLPP Members of Parliament and thence a retainer of the Rajapaksa Clan (Mahinda, Basil and Gota’s residual killers in Defence Ministry, military and the ex-Tripoli Market unit). Only after Parliament is dissolved can RW, if he has the guts, jettison the SLPP flotsam. Recollections of Rajapaksa linkages will be RW’s biggest electoral bugbear.
How will RW perform at an election held within a few months? A crucial caution is what will be the stance of Sajith and the SJB? I cannot imagine the SJB’s intelligent heavyweights going to the polls without some type of alliance with the formal UNP – that is without ‘going back home’. The SJB despite numerate persons like Eran (the clearest minded and most articulate), Harsha and Kabir cannot, by itself, present a credible national alternative, sans an alliance with the grand old party. Furthermore, a Sajith-Ranil union will do less well in urban areas than a Ranil-Sajith alliance; the converse is true in non-urban electorates. The SJB can outperform the UNP only in city areas and districts with a heavy minority (Ceylon Tamil, Muslim and Up-Country) presence, but only if a credible minority candidate splits the vote.
Far wiser men than I have busted their savings taking bets about elections so I am not going to say anything other than the obvious regarding an election which may be held within months. Obviously the SLPP, all pro-government contraptions, the nine-party circus, the twelve strong GL, Dullas Alahapperuma outfit and the Wimal-Udaya-Vasu comedy would all have been erased in toto in a first-past-the-post contest. In the proportional representation system, the whole lot together may win a dozen or two dozen seats. The electorate will shun anything tainted by Rajapaksa Robbery. Ditto for pissu Sira’s SLFP.
Last month’s Budget is bandage; it plasters over Basil’s preposterous crap. The real McCoy will be the one-year Budget due in December. Government, Central Bank, Treasury and RW’s inner circle will have to line up with the IMF’s stipulations. The IMF $2.9 billion pitch (Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has approved the Staff Level agreement), not verbatim but conscientiously abbreviated is as follows:
“Raise revenue to support fiscal consolidation from one of the lowest revenue levels in the world. The programme must make major tax reforms; income tax more aggressive, broaden corporate tax and VAT and reach a primary surplus of 2.3% of GDP by 2024. Introduce cost-recovery based pricing for fuel and electricity to minimize fiscal risks from state-owned enterprises. The IMF welcomes the already announced substantial revenue measures and energy pricing reforms. Mitigate impact of the crisis on the poor and vulnerable by raising social spending, improving the coverage and targeting safety net programmes.
Restore price stability through data-driven monetary policy, phasing out monetary fiscal financing and a stronger central bank. Pursue flexible inflation targeting. A new Central Bank Act is a cornerstone of this. Rebuild foreign reserves through a market-determined and flexible exchange rate. Safeguard financial stability by ensuring a well-capitalised banking system. Reduce corruption, improve fiscal transparency, public finance management and the anti-corruption legal framework”.
This is the liberal-bourgeois, post neo-liberal rationale, and I alerted my regular readers to most of it during the last three months well before the Central Bank, RW or the Treasury mentioned the inevitability of a dual exchange rate, floating rupee, relaxed currency controls to entice money-market funds and FDI, fiscal reform and above all significant belt-tightening. If Lanka aligns with Western capitalism and the IMF and restores a liberal bourgeois state these changes will flow naturally. As for RW now licking the wounds of his July 23 fiasco, this is a destiny that aligns with his inherited class palate.
by Dr Gotabhya Ranasinghe
Senior Consultant Cardiologist
National Hospital Sri Lanka
When we sought a meeting with Hon Dr. Ramesh Pathirana, Minister of Health, he graciously cleared his busy schedule to accommodate us. Renowned for his attentive listening and deep understanding, Minister Pathirana is dedicated to advancing the health sector. His openness and transparency exemplify the qualities of an exemplary politician and minister.
Dr. Palitha Mahipala, the current Health Secretary, demonstrates both commendable enthusiasm and unwavering support. This combination of attributes makes him a highly compatible colleague for the esteemed Minister of Health.
Our discussion centered on a project that has been in the works for the past 30 years, one that no other minister had managed to advance.
Minister Pathirana, however, recognized the project’s significance and its potential to revolutionize care for heart patients.
The project involves the construction of a state-of-the-art facility at the premises of the National Hospital Colombo. The project’s location within the premises of the National Hospital underscores its importance and relevance to the healthcare infrastructure of the nation.
This facility will include a cardiology building and a tertiary care center, equipped with the latest technology to handle and treat all types of heart-related conditions and surgeries.
Securing funding was a major milestone for this initiative. Minister Pathirana successfully obtained approval for a $40 billion loan from the Asian Development Bank. With the funding in place, the foundation stone is scheduled to be laid in September this year, and construction will begin in January 2025.
This project guarantees a consistent and uninterrupted supply of stents and related medications for heart patients. As a result, patients will have timely access to essential medical supplies during their treatment and recovery. By securing these critical resources, the project aims to enhance patient outcomes, minimize treatment delays, and maintain the highest standards of cardiac care.
Upon its fruition, this monumental building will serve as a beacon of hope and healing, symbolizing the unwavering dedication to improving patient outcomes and fostering a healthier society.We anticipate a future marked by significant progress and positive outcomes in Sri Lanka’s cardiovascular treatment landscape within the foreseeable timeframe.
by Fr. Emmanuel Fernando, OMI
Jesuit Fr. Aloysius Pieris (affectionately called Fr. Aloy) celebrated his 90th birthday on April 9, 2024 and I, as the editor of our Oblate Journal, THE MISSIONARY OBLATE had gone to press by that time. Immediately I decided to publish an article, appreciating the untiring selfless services he continues to offer for inter-Faith dialogue, the renewal of the Catholic Church, his concern for the poor and the suffering Sri Lankan masses and to me, the present writer.
It was in 1988, when I was appointed Director of the Oblate Scholastics at Ampitiya by the then Oblate Provincial Fr. Anselm Silva, that I came to know Fr. Aloy more closely. Knowing well his expertise in matters spiritual, theological, Indological and pastoral, and with the collaborative spirit of my companion-formators, our Oblate Scholastics were sent to Tulana, the Research and Encounter Centre, Kelaniya, of which he is the Founder-Director, for ‘exposure-programmes’ on matters spiritual, biblical, theological and pastoral. Some of these dimensions according to my view and that of my companion-formators, were not available at the National Seminary, Ampitiya.
Ever since that time, our Oblate formators/ accompaniers at the Oblate Scholasticate, Ampitiya , have continued to send our Oblate Scholastics to Tulana Centre for deepening their insights and convictions regarding matters needed to serve the people in today’s context. Fr. Aloy also had tried very enthusiastically with the Oblate team headed by Frs. Oswald Firth and Clement Waidyasekara to begin a Theologate, directed by the Religious Congregations in Sri Lanka, for the contextual formation/ accompaniment of their members. It should very well be a desired goal of the Leaders / Provincials of the Religious Congregations.
Besides being a formator/accompanier at the Oblate Scholasticate, I was entrusted also with the task of editing and publishing our Oblate journal, ‘The Missionary Oblate’. To maintain the quality of the journal I continue to depend on Fr. Aloy for his thought-provoking and stimulating articles on Biblical Spirituality, Biblical Theology and Ecclesiology. I am very grateful to him for his generous assistance. Of late, his writings on renewal of the Church, initiated by Pope St. John XX111 and continued by Pope Francis through the Synodal path, published in our Oblate journal, enable our readers to focus their attention also on the needed renewal in the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka. Fr. Aloy appreciated very much the Synodal path adopted by the Jesuit Pope Francis for the renewal of the Church, rooted very much on prayerful discernment. In my Religious and presbyteral life, Fr.Aloy continues to be my spiritual animator / guide and ongoing formator / acccompanier.
Fr. Aloysius Pieris, BA Hons (Lond), LPh (SHC, India), STL (PFT, Naples), PhD (SLU/VC), ThD (Tilburg), D.Ltt (KU), has been one of the eminent Asian theologians well recognized internationally and one who has lectured and held visiting chairs in many universities both in the West and in the East. Many members of Religious Congregations from Asian countries have benefited from his lectures and guidance in the East Asian Pastoral Institute (EAPI) in Manila, Philippines. He had been a Theologian consulted by the Federation of Asian Bishops’ Conferences for many years. During his professorship at the Gregorian University in Rome, he was called to be a member of a special group of advisers on other religions consulted by Pope Paul VI.
Fr. Aloy is the author of more than 30 books and well over 500 Research Papers. Some of his books and articles have been translated and published in several countries. Among those books, one can find the following: 1) The Genesis of an Asian Theology of Liberation (An Autobiographical Excursus on the Art of Theologising in Asia, 2) An Asian Theology of Liberation, 3) Providential Timeliness of Vatican 11 (a long-overdue halt to a scandalous millennium, 4) Give Vatican 11 a chance, 5) Leadership in the Church, 6) Relishing our faith in working for justice (Themes for study and discussion), 7) A Message meant mainly, not exclusively for Jesuits (Background information necessary for helping Francis renew the Church), 8) Lent in Lanka (Reflections and Resolutions, 9) Love meets wisdom (A Christian Experience of Buddhism, 10) Fire and Water 11) God’s Reign for God’s poor, 12) Our Unhiddden Agenda (How we Jesuits work, pray and form our men). He is also the Editor of two journals, Vagdevi, Journal of Religious Reflection and Dialogue, New Series.
Fr. Aloy has a BA in Pali and Sanskrit from the University of London and a Ph.D in Buddhist Philosophy from the University of Sri Lankan, Vidyodaya Campus. On Nov. 23, 2019, he was awarded the prestigious honorary Doctorate of Literature (D.Litt) by the Chancellor of the University of Kelaniya, the Most Venerable Welamitiyawe Dharmakirthi Sri Kusala Dhamma Thera.
Fr. Aloy continues to be a promoter of Gospel values and virtues. Justice as a constitutive dimension of love and social concern for the downtrodden masses are very much noted in his life and work. He had very much appreciated the commitment of the late Fr. Joseph (Joe) Fernando, the National Director of the Social and Economic Centre (SEDEC) for the poor.
In Sri Lanka, a few religious Congregations – the Good Shepherd Sisters, the Christian Brothers, the Marist Brothers and the Oblates – have invited him to animate their members especially during their Provincial Congresses, Chapters and International Conferences. The mainline Christian Churches also have sought his advice and followed his seminars. I, for one, regret very much, that the Sri Lankan authorities of the Catholic Church –today’s Hierarchy—- have not sought Fr.
Aloy’s expertise for the renewal of the Catholic Church in Sri Lanka and thus have not benefited from the immense store of wisdom and insight that he can offer to our local Church while the Sri Lankan bishops who governed the Catholic church in the immediate aftermath of the Second Vatican Council (Edmund Fernando OMI, Anthony de Saram, Leo Nanayakkara OSB, Frank Marcus Fernando, Paul Perera,) visited him and consulted him on many matters. Among the Tamil Bishops, Bishop Rayappu Joseph was keeping close contact with him and Bishop J. Deogupillai hosted him and his team visiting him after the horrible Black July massacre of Tamils.
Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement
By Gomi Senadhira
senadhiragomi@gmail.com
“You might tell fairy tales, but the progress of a country cannot be achieved through such narratives. A country cannot be developed by making false promises. The country moved backward because of the electoral promises made by political parties throughout time. We have witnessed that the ultimate result of this is the country becoming bankrupt. Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet.” – President Ranil Wickremesinghe, 2024 Budget speech
Any Sri Lankan would agree with the above words of President Wickremesinghe on the false promises our politicians and officials make and the fairy tales they narrate which bankrupted this country. So, to understand this, let’s look at one such fairy tale with lots of false promises; Ranil Wickremesinghe’s greatest achievement in the area of international trade and investment promotion during the Yahapalana period, Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA).
It is appropriate and timely to do it now as Finance Minister Wickremesinghe has just presented to parliament a bill on the National Policy on Economic Transformation which includes the establishment of an Office for International Trade and the Sri Lanka Institute of Economics and International Trade.
Was SLSFTA a “Cleverly negotiated Free Trade Agreement” as stated by the (former) Minister of Development Strategies and International Trade Malik Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate on the SLSFTA in July 2018, or a colossal blunder covered up with lies, false promises, and fairy tales? After SLSFTA was signed there were a number of fairy tales published on this agreement by the Ministry of Development Strategies and International, Institute of Policy Studies, and others.
However, for this article, I would like to limit my comments to the speech by Minister Samarawickrama during the Parliamentary Debate, and the two most important areas in the agreement which were covered up with lies, fairy tales, and false promises, namely: revenue loss for Sri Lanka and Investment from Singapore. On the other important area, “Waste products dumping” I do not want to comment here as I have written extensively on the issue.
1. The revenue loss
During the Parliamentary Debate in July 2018, Minister Samarawickrama stated “…. let me reiterate that this FTA with Singapore has been very cleverly negotiated by us…. The liberalisation programme under this FTA has been carefully designed to have the least impact on domestic industry and revenue collection. We have included all revenue sensitive items in the negative list of items which will not be subject to removal of tariff. Therefore, 97.8% revenue from Customs duty is protected. Our tariff liberalisation will take place over a period of 12-15 years! In fact, the revenue earned through tariffs on goods imported from Singapore last year was Rs. 35 billion.
The revenue loss for over the next 15 years due to the FTA is only Rs. 733 million– which when annualised, on average, is just Rs. 51 million. That is just 0.14% per year! So anyone who claims the Singapore FTA causes revenue loss to the Government cannot do basic arithmetic! Mr. Speaker, in conclusion, I call on my fellow members of this House – don’t mislead the public with baseless criticism that is not grounded in facts. Don’t look at petty politics and use these issues for your own political survival.”
I was surprised to read the minister’s speech because an article published in January 2018 in “The Straits Times“, based on information released by the Singaporean Negotiators stated, “…. With the FTA, tariff savings for Singapore exports are estimated to hit $10 million annually“.
As the annual tariff savings (that is the revenue loss for Sri Lanka) calculated by the Singaporean Negotiators, Singaporean $ 10 million (Sri Lankan rupees 1,200 million in 2018) was way above the rupees’ 733 million revenue loss for 15 years estimated by the Sri Lankan negotiators, it was clear to any observer that one of the parties to the agreement had not done the basic arithmetic!
Six years later, according to a report published by “The Morning” newspaper, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) on 7th May 2024, Mr Samarawickrama’s chief trade negotiator K.J. Weerasinghehad had admitted “…. that forecasted revenue loss for the Government of Sri Lanka through the Singapore FTA is Rs. 450 million in 2023 and Rs. 1.3 billion in 2024.”
If these numbers are correct, as tariff liberalisation under the SLSFTA has just started, we will pass Rs 2 billion very soon. Then, the question is how Sri Lanka’s trade negotiators made such a colossal blunder. Didn’t they do their basic arithmetic? If they didn’t know how to do basic arithmetic they should have at least done their basic readings. For example, the headline of the article published in The Straits Times in January 2018 was “Singapore, Sri Lanka sign FTA, annual savings of $10m expected”.
Anyway, as Sri Lanka’s chief negotiator reiterated at the COPF meeting that “…. since 99% of the tariffs in Singapore have zero rates of duty, Sri Lanka has agreed on 80% tariff liberalisation over a period of 15 years while expecting Singapore investments to address the imbalance in trade,” let’s turn towards investment.
Investment from Singapore
In July 2018, speaking during the Parliamentary Debate on the FTA this is what Minister Malik Samarawickrama stated on investment from Singapore, “Already, thanks to this FTA, in just the past two-and-a-half months since the agreement came into effect we have received a proposal from Singapore for investment amounting to $ 14.8 billion in an oil refinery for export of petroleum products. In addition, we have proposals for a steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million), sugar refinery ($ 200 million). This adds up to more than $ 16.05 billion in the pipeline on these projects alone.
And all of these projects will create thousands of more jobs for our people. In principle approval has already been granted by the BOI and the investors are awaiting the release of land the environmental approvals to commence the project.
I request the Opposition and those with vested interests to change their narrow-minded thinking and join us to develop our country. We must always look at what is best for the whole community, not just the few who may oppose. We owe it to our people to courageously take decisions that will change their lives for the better.”
According to the media report I quoted earlier, speaking at the Committee on Public Finance (COPF) Chief Negotiator Weerasinghe has admitted that Sri Lanka was not happy with overall Singapore investments that have come in the past few years in return for the trade liberalisation under the Singapore-Sri Lanka Free Trade Agreement. He has added that between 2021 and 2023 the total investment from Singapore had been around $162 million!
What happened to those projects worth $16 billion negotiated, thanks to the SLSFTA, in just the two-and-a-half months after the agreement came into effect and approved by the BOI? I do not know about the steel manufacturing plant for exports ($ 1 billion investment), flour milling plant ($ 50 million) and sugar refinery ($ 200 million).
However, story of the multibillion-dollar investment in the Petroleum Refinery unfolded in a manner that would qualify it as the best fairy tale with false promises presented by our politicians and the officials, prior to 2019 elections.
Though many Sri Lankans got to know, through the media which repeatedly highlighted a plethora of issues surrounding the project and the questionable credentials of the Singaporean investor, the construction work on the Mirrijiwela Oil Refinery along with the cement factory began on the24th of March 2019 with a bang and Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and his ministers along with the foreign and local dignitaries laid the foundation stones.
That was few months before the 2019 Presidential elections. Inaugurating the construction work Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe said the projects will create thousands of job opportunities in the area and surrounding districts.
The oil refinery, which was to be built over 200 acres of land, with the capacity to refine 200,000 barrels of crude oil per day, was to generate US$7 billion of exports and create 1,500 direct and 3,000 indirect jobs. The construction of the refinery was to be completed in 44 months. Four years later, in August 2023 the Cabinet of Ministers approved the proposal presented by President Ranil Wickremesinghe to cancel the agreement with the investors of the refinery as the project has not been implemented! Can they explain to the country how much money was wasted to produce that fairy tale?
It is obvious that the President, ministers, and officials had made huge blunders and had deliberately misled the public and the parliament on the revenue loss and potential investment from SLSFTA with fairy tales and false promises.
As the president himself said, a country cannot be developed by making false promises or with fairy tales and these false promises and fairy tales had bankrupted the country. “Unfortunately, many segments of the population have not come to realize this yet”.
(The writer, a specialist and an activist on trade and development issues . )
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